COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1429465330284384256

[emailking]

The CDC said vaccinated individuals who are infected might be just as infections as unvaccinated who are infected. They're the experts. If they say we know that's not true now, I will of course accept it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Let’s see how the talking points are doing…

Florida is below the national average in cases per capita
Florida is below the national average in deaths per capita
Florida is near the middle of the pack in cases per capita
Florida is near the middle of the pack in deaths per capita
Florida is doing better than New York/New Jersey in cases per capita
Florida is doing better* than New York/New Jersey in deaths per capita
Florida had a spike but it’s getting better now and it’ll fall below other states

*For obvious reasons that ignore context.

Not looking especially good for DeSantis apologists here, unless we buy into the idea that the Covid statistics are largely beyond his control, which undercuts the argument that people made (conveniently when the statistics looked better) that he had done a “great job” with the pandemic because of the statistics. If the death statistics get worse for Florida, what is the new talking point going to be?

I've never wanted to quintuple-recommend a post as much as this one.

[Roll Roons]

Let’s see how the talking points are doing…

Florida is below the national average in cases per capita
Florida is below the national average in deaths per capita
Florida is near the middle of the pack in cases per capita
Florida is near the middle of the pack in deaths per capita
Florida is doing better than New York/New Jersey in cases per capita
Florida is doing better* than New York/New Jersey in deaths per capita
Florida had a spike but it’s getting better now and it’ll fall below other states

*For obvious reasons that ignore context.

Not looking especially good for DeSantis apologists here, unless we buy into the idea that the Covid statistics are largely beyond his control, which undercuts the argument that people made (conveniently when the statistics looked better) that he had done a “great job” with the pandemic because of the statistics. If the death statistics get worse for Florida, what is the new talking point going to be?

The obvious reason being that Cuomo and Murphy did objectively terrible jobs. You can admit this fact without necessarily being an apologist for DeSantis.

Plus if people chose to not get vaccinated by now, it's on them for being idiots. Government can only do so much.

[Hammy]

Let’s see how the talking points are doing…

Florida is below the national average in cases per capita
Florida is below the national average in deaths per capita
Florida is near the middle of the pack in cases per capita
Florida is near the middle of the pack in deaths per capita
Florida is doing better than New York/New Jersey in cases per capita
Florida is doing better* than New York/New Jersey in deaths per capita
Florida had a spike but it’s getting better now and it’ll fall below other states

*For obvious reasons that ignore context.

Not looking especially good for DeSantis apologists here, unless we buy into the idea that the Covid statistics are largely beyond his control, which undercuts the argument that people made (conveniently when the statistics looked better) that he had done a “great job” with the pandemic because of the statistics. If the death statistics get worse for Florida, what is the new talking point going to be?

They're already turning the blame to blacks and immigrants.

[Xing]

Let’s see how the talking points are doing…

Florida is below the national average in cases per capita
Florida is below the national average in deaths per capita
Florida is near the middle of the pack in cases per capita
Florida is near the middle of the pack in deaths per capita
Florida is doing better than New York/New Jersey in cases per capita
Florida is doing better* than New York/New Jersey in deaths per capita
Florida had a spike but it’s getting better now and it’ll fall below other states

*For obvious reasons that ignore context.

Not looking especially good for DeSantis apologists here, unless we buy into the idea that the Covid statistics are largely beyond his control, which undercuts the argument that people made (conveniently when the statistics looked better) that he had done a “great job” with the pandemic because of the statistics. If the death statistics get worse for Florida, what is the new talking point going to be?

The obvious reason being that Cuomo and Murphy did objectively terrible jobs. You can admit this fact without necessarily being an apologist for DeSantis.

Plus if people chose to not get vaccinated by now, it's on them for being idiots. Government can only do so much.

I’ve never defended Cuomo or Murphy (I’ve said how much I detest the former many times.) Saying the a governor handled Covid well shouldn’t require comparisons to Cuomo. I’ll acknowledge that one Republican who has done an objectively good job is Phil Scott.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Let’s see how the talking points are doing…

Florida is below the national average in cases per capita
Florida is below the national average in deaths per capita
Florida is near the middle of the pack in cases per capita
Florida is near the middle of the pack in deaths per capita
Florida is doing better than New York/New Jersey in cases per capita
Florida is doing better* than New York/New Jersey in deaths per capita
Florida had a spike but it’s getting better now and it’ll fall below other states

*For obvious reasons that ignore context.

Not looking especially good for DeSantis apologists here, unless we buy into the idea that the Covid statistics are largely beyond his control, which undercuts the argument that people made (conveniently when the statistics looked better) that he had done a “great job” with the pandemic because of the statistics. If the death statistics get worse for Florida, what is the new talking point going to be?

They're already turning the blame to blacks and immigrants.

The Republicans ought to patent the hover-goalpost that they always use.

[ProudModerate2]

Let’s see how the talking points are doing…

Florida is below the national average in cases per capita
Florida is below the national average in deaths per capita
Florida is near the middle of the pack in cases per capita
Florida is near the middle of the pack in deaths per capita
Florida is doing better than New York/New Jersey in cases per capita
Florida is doing better* than New York/New Jersey in deaths per capita
Florida had a spike but it’s getting better now and it’ll fall below other states

*For obvious reasons that ignore context.

Not looking especially good for DeSantis apologists here, unless we buy into the idea that the Covid statistics are largely beyond his control, which undercuts the argument that people made (conveniently when the statistics looked better) that he had done a “great job” with the pandemic because of the statistics. If the death statistics get worse for Florida, what is the new talking point going to be?

The obvious reason being that Cuomo and Murphy did objectively terrible jobs. You can admit this fact without necessarily being an apologist for DeSantis.

Plus if people chose to not get vaccinated by now, it's on them for being idiots. Government can only do so much.

Your (everyone's) federal, state and local leaders matter, though.
If everyone is on the same page, then more and more of the people will listen and follow.
But when you have Republican political leaders (at all levels) making a mockery of masks, social distancing and/or vaccines, we get the chaos we are in.

[It’s so Joever]

Let’s see how the talking points are doing…

Florida is below the national average in cases per capita
Florida is below the national average in deaths per capita
Florida is near the middle of the pack in cases per capita
Florida is near the middle of the pack in deaths per capita
Florida is doing better than New York/New Jersey in cases per capita
Florida is doing better* than New York/New Jersey in deaths per capita
Florida had a spike but it’s getting better now and it’ll fall below other states

*For obvious reasons that ignore context.

Not looking especially good for DeSantis apologists here, unless we buy into the idea that the Covid statistics are largely beyond his control, which undercuts the argument that people made (conveniently when the statistics looked better) that he had done a “great job” with the pandemic because of the statistics. If the death statistics get worse for Florida, what is the new talking point going to be?

The obvious reason being that Cuomo and Murphy did objectively terrible jobs. You can admit this fact without necessarily being an apologist for DeSantis.

Plus if people chose to not get vaccinated by now, it's on them for being idiots. Government can only do so much.

If you seriously think the only reason New York and New Jersey have such high deaths per capita is the incompetency of both governors...you really shouldn’t ever be posting on here. It’s a part of it, but that ignores a lot of context. That’s like arguing the leadership of Bergamo is somehow worse than the leadership of say, Bergamo is completely at fault for having relatively higher death rates from Covid (but ironically low case rates in total because of testing discrepancies)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1429823392992145416

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1429823392992145416

You and so called "journalist" Rupar mean it's a bad journalism, don't you? JC.

Unfortunately, there are a lot people who still believes in conspiracy about "rushed" vaccines that Democrats invented in order to steal the election from Trump. Fox acknowledges these worries, and then [the guest] pedagogically explains how the process looks like, why it took as much time as it took and why it's a good news.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Media coverage darts back and forth between the extremes of denial and alarmism.

[Roll Roons]

Let’s see how the talking points are doing…

Florida is below the national average in cases per capita
Florida is below the national average in deaths per capita
Florida is near the middle of the pack in cases per capita
Florida is near the middle of the pack in deaths per capita
Florida is doing better than New York/New Jersey in cases per capita
Florida is doing better* than New York/New Jersey in deaths per capita
Florida had a spike but it’s getting better now and it’ll fall below other states

*For obvious reasons that ignore context.

Not looking especially good for DeSantis apologists here, unless we buy into the idea that the Covid statistics are largely beyond his control, which undercuts the argument that people made (conveniently when the statistics looked better) that he had done a “great job” with the pandemic because of the statistics. If the death statistics get worse for Florida, what is the new talking point going to be?

The obvious reason being that Cuomo and Murphy did objectively terrible jobs. You can admit this fact without necessarily being an apologist for DeSantis.

Plus if people chose to not get vaccinated by now, it's on them for being idiots. Government can only do so much.

If you seriously think the only reason New York and New Jersey have such high deaths per capita is the incompetency of both governors...you really shouldn’t ever be posting on here. It’s a part of it, but that ignores a lot of context. That’s like arguing the leadership of Bergamo is somehow worse than the leadership of say, Bergamo is completely at fault for having relatively higher death rates from Covid (but ironically low case rates in total because of testing discrepancies)

The first place in the US to experience an outbreak was actually Seattle. But Inslee didn't go and throw positive patients in nursing homes.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Yeah, if you've been spending more of your time on criticizing FL than NY, NJ and MI, you're a hack.

It was similar last year.

FL got hit hard during Summer - DeathSantis.
MI, IL and CA got hit, perhaps, even harder during Fall/Winter - radio silence.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/mikememoli/status/1429834509340626950

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/mikememoli/status/1429834509340626950

So Republican voters are dying in far greater numbers, yet their leaders keep misleading and digging in on banning mask/vaccine mandates.

The blind leading the blind.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/US_FDA/status/1429050070243192839

[Calthrina950]

Let’s see how the talking points are doing…

Florida is below the national average in cases per capita
Florida is below the national average in deaths per capita
Florida is near the middle of the pack in cases per capita
Florida is near the middle of the pack in deaths per capita
Florida is doing better than New York/New Jersey in cases per capita
Florida is doing better* than New York/New Jersey in deaths per capita
Florida had a spike but it’s getting better now and it’ll fall below other states

*For obvious reasons that ignore context.

Not looking especially good for DeSantis apologists here, unless we buy into the idea that the Covid statistics are largely beyond his control, which undercuts the argument that people made (conveniently when the statistics looked better) that he had done a “great job” with the pandemic because of the statistics. If the death statistics get worse for Florida, what is the new talking point going to be?

The obvious reason being that Cuomo and Murphy did objectively terrible jobs. You can admit this fact without necessarily being an apologist for DeSantis.

Plus if people chose to not get vaccinated by now, it's on them for being idiots. Government can only do so much.

If you seriously think the only reason New York and New Jersey have such high deaths per capita is the incompetency of both governors...you really shouldn’t ever be posting on here. It’s a part of it, but that ignores a lot of context. That’s like arguing the leadership of Bergamo is somehow worse than the leadership of say, Bergamo is completely at fault for having relatively higher death rates from Covid (but ironically low case rates in total because of testing discrepancies)

The first place in the US to experience an outbreak was actually Seattle. But Inslee didn't go and throw positive patients in nursing homes.

But wasn't it a nursing home in the Seattle suburbs that had the first significant coronavirus outbreak in this country? That's what I recall from last year's coverage.

[roxas11]

Yeah, if you've been spending more of your time on criticizing FL than NY, NJ and MI, you're a hack.

It was similar last year.

FL got hit hard during Summer - DeathSantis.
MI, IL and CA got hit, perhaps, even harder during Fall/Winter - radio silence.

I think this criticism is unfair and unjustified

The fact is Florida is the first state where deaths are higher in this Covid wave than previous ones

No other state so far can make that unfortunate claim and it is simply wrong to call people a hack for being understandably critical of how things are going in the state

Now, having said that if MI, IL and CA gets this bad in the fall, then they should also be called out, but until then Florida is truly in a league of its own

[Dan the Roman]

Yeah, if you've been spending more of your time on criticizing FL than NY, NJ and MI, you're a hack.

It was similar last year.

FL got hit hard during Summer - DeathSantis.
MI, IL and CA got hit, perhaps, even harder during Fall/Winter - radio silence.

Real test will be whether CA/NE get hit this winter.
Whether Florida gets hit again next summer.

If North East mostly escapes and this happens again next summer, I suspect that is the scenario where DeSantis is in trouble for reelection. He can survive this if it is in fact the final wave. But if herd immunity is achieved through natural immunity which fades after 9 months, and everyone gets reinfected again next summer and you have 100+ deaths a day going into 2022 elections then there is a huge problem.

That said DeSantis created a lot of his own PR problems here. Had he stopped at opposing lockdowns, blocking enforcement of those, and then let local school boards hang themselves on unpopular mask mandates while also avoiding a clash with Disney/Cruise lines he would be at 60%+. He went in 125% on a winning strategy and ended up taking the fall for things which were entirely foreseeable*

* the blocking of daily data releases on June 4th was an astronomical blunder for all the reasons you note. He proclaimed that Covid was over and therefore there was no need to even monitor it weeks before he should have known a wave was coming and when one was already building in Missouri. Furthermore, he handed control over the narrative, and Florida's daily numbers to the Biden CDC.

DeSantis has played Covid horribly since about May of 2021. Whether that makes him responsible for many if any deaths is more debatable. But virtually all the political damage he is suffering is self-inflicted by really stupid decisions anyone with a room temperature IQ could see would play out the way they did.

Addendum to that. Urban legends about Vaccines causing autism meant a generation of parents whose kids developed symptoms of autism and had a vaccine blamed vaccines for it. Because they like blaming things. Long Covid has horribly defined symptoms which basically include any symptoms of Autism, ADHD, or even being teenager, namely moodyness, low energy, sleeping in, lack of motivation. DeSantis may not have given a single kid long covid. But there are going to be tens of thousands of mothers of whom thousands will be willing to go on TV and in effect say DeSantis crippled my child and gave them ADHD.

There is no requirement for any evidence masks work. All that will be needed is the kid showing any symptoms whatsoever, and for the kid to have tested positive for covid and DeSantis personally will have crippled their kid.

[Person Man]

Yeah, if you've been spending more of your time on criticizing FL than NY, NJ and MI, you're a hack.

It was similar last year.

FL got hit hard during Summer - DeathSantis.
MI, IL and CA got hit, perhaps, even harder during Fall/Winter - radio silence.

Real test will be whether CA/NE get hit this winter.
Whether Florida gets hit again next summer.

If North East mostly escapes and this happens again next summer, I suspect that is the scenario where DeSantis is in trouble for reelection. He can survive this if it is in fact the final wave. But if herd immunity is achieved through natural immunity which fades after 9 months, and everyone gets reinfected again next summer and you have 100+ deaths a day going into 2022 elections then there is a huge problem.

That said DeSantis created a lot of his own PR problems here. Had he stopped at opposing lockdowns, blocking enforcement of those, and then let local school boards hang themselves on unpopular mask mandates while also avoiding a clash with Disney/Cruise lines he would be at 60%+. He went in 125% on a winning strategy and ended up taking the fall for things which were entirely foreseeable*

* the blocking of daily data releases on June 4th was an astronomical blunder for all the reasons you note. He proclaimed that Covid was over and therefore there was no need to even monitor it weeks before he should have known a wave was coming and when one was already building in Missouri. Furthermore, he handed control over the narrative, and Florida's daily numbers to the Biden CDC.

DeSantis has played Covid horribly since about May of 2021. Whether that makes him responsible for many if any deaths is more debatable. But virtually all the political damage he is suffering is self-inflicted by really stupid decisions anyone with a room temperature IQ could see would play out the way they did.

Addendum to that. Urban legends about Vaccines causing autism meant a generation of parents whose kids developed symptoms of autism and had a vaccine blamed vaccines for it. Because they like blaming things. Long Covid has horribly defined symptoms which basically include any symptoms of Autism, ADHD, or even being teenager, namely moodyness, low energy, sleeping in, lack of motivation. DeSantis may not have given a single kid long covid. But there are going to be tens of thousands of mothers of whom thousands will be willing to go on TV and in effect say DeSantis crippled my child and gave them ADHD.

There is no requirement for any evidence masks work. All that will be needed is the kid showing any symptoms whatsoever, and for the kid to have tested positive for covid and DeSantis personally will have crippled their kid.

It will definitely test the power (or lack thereof) of the brand in Florida.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Yeah, if you've been spending more of your time on criticizing FL than NY, NJ and MI, you're a hack.

It was similar last year.

FL got hit hard during Summer - DeathSantis.
MI, IL and CA got hit, perhaps, even harder during Fall/Winter - radio silence.

Real test will be whether CA/NE get hit this winter.
Whether Florida gets hit again next summer.

If North East mostly escapes and this happens again next summer, I suspect that is the scenario where DeSantis is in trouble for reelection. He can survive this if it is in fact the final wave. But if herd immunity is achieved through natural immunity which fades after 9 months, and everyone gets reinfected again next summer and you have 100+ deaths a day going into 2022 elections then there is a huge problem.

That said DeSantis created a lot of his own PR problems here. Had he stopped at opposing lockdowns, blocking enforcement of those, and then let local school boards hang themselves on unpopular mask mandates while also avoiding a clash with Disney/Cruise lines he would be at 60%+. He went in 125% on a winning strategy and ended up taking the fall for things which were entirely foreseeable*

* the blocking of daily data releases on June 4th was an astronomical blunder for all the reasons you note. He proclaimed that Covid was over and therefore there was no need to even monitor it weeks before he should have known a wave was coming and when one was already building in Missouri. Furthermore, he handed control over the narrative, and Florida's daily numbers to the Biden CDC.

DeSantis has played Covid horribly since about May of 2021. Whether that makes him responsible for many if any deaths is more debatable. But virtually all the political damage he is suffering is self-inflicted by really stupid decisions anyone with a room temperature IQ could see would play out the way they did.

Addendum to that. Urban legends about Vaccines causing autism meant a generation of parents whose kids developed symptoms of autism and had a vaccine blamed vaccines for it. Because they like blaming things. Long Covid has horribly defined symptoms which basically include any symptoms of Autism, ADHD, or even being teenager, namely moodyness, low energy, sleeping in, lack of motivation. DeSantis may not have given a single kid long covid. But there are going to be tens of thousands of mothers of whom thousands will be willing to go on TV and in effect say DeSantis crippled my child and gave them ADHD.

There is no requirement for any evidence masks work. All that will be needed is the kid showing any symptoms whatsoever, and for the kid to have tested positive for covid and DeSantis personally will have crippled their kid.

I do think that they will mostly escape it. Simply, because they will be hit later, when more people get vaccinated.

As I said the states, I mentioned, got hit harder then FL in terms of death per capita, despite DeSantis "stupid" policies and Democratic great [anti-]science policies.

The only thing that really matters is the vaccination rate (among older pop). Let's take a look at top 5 states by death per capita.

The Top 5 state by death per capita (all time) are

(D) NJ 301 per 100,000
(D) NY 276
(R) MS 269
(D) MA 264
(D) RI 260

Florida has 197, slightly over US average of 189 per 100,000. Despite much  older population

Vaccination rate

...........65+ at least 1.... 65+, fully.....All, fully
(D) NJ ....92%................85%................60%
(D) NY ...89%................82%................59%
(R) MS ...81%................74%................37%
(D) MA ...98%................88%................65%
(D) RI ....97%................93%................64%

(R) FL 94%....................82%.................52%


So MA and especially RI are clearly better, though not THAT much. NJ and NY are just slightly better, but they almost 50% more overall death per capita.


Did DeSantis "play" it badly? Well, yeah. He was taken totally aback by Delta. Still, most damage came because of biased media. Did (D) Edwards get similar coverage despite Louisiana having even worse #'s right now (though FL will get worse soon enough) and even worse vaccination rate?

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

By the way, Biden didn't "play" it well, either. https://apnorc.org/projects/fewer-approve-of-bidens-handling-of-the-pandemic/

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Is Biden intentionally trying to kill off Republican voters?

By this point, Biden should know that if he tells Republicans to get vaccinated, then that will make them LESS likely to get vaccinated, because Republicans will always simply reflexively oppose anything that any Democrat says, without any sort of thought or reflection.

Given this, you would think that if Biden actually wanted them to get vaccinated, he would tell them NOT to get vaccinated. That would then, perversely, cause them to get vaccinated just because it is contrary to what Biden would be saying.

Biden isn't dumb (right? () )

So does he have some other plan up his sleeves?

With, ~90% of Biden voters vaccinated and only about ~50% of Trump voters vaccinated, Biden also knows that a large majority of people who die of COVID are likely to be Republicans. By continuing to encourage Republicans to get vaccinated, Biden can ensure that they won't get vaccinated, and the voter pool will over time be purged of more and more Rs. It's true that in any individual wave, the numbers of deaths are limited. But when unvaccinated Republican voters who have suffered some minor lung damage from their first or second infection get re-infected for a third time, and a fourth time in subsequent ongoing waves, with each additional round of recurring infections, more of them will die and pretty soon we are talking about enough voters dead to swing an election, especially when the partisan difference in vaccination rates is so large.

So is Biden crazy - or genocidal - like a fox? Was this the plan all along?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is Biden intentionally trying to kill off Republican voters?

By this point, Biden should know that if he tells Republicans to get vaccinated, then that will make them LESS likely to get vaccinated, because Republicans will always simply reflexively oppose anything that any Democrat says, without any sort of thought or reflection.

Given this, you would think that if Biden actually wanted them to get vaccinated, he would tell them NOT to get vaccinated. That would then, perversely, cause them to get vaccinated just because it is contrary to what Biden would be saying.

Biden isn't dumb (right? () )

So does he have some other plan up his sleeves?

With, ~90% of Biden voters vaccinated and only about ~50% of Trump voters vaccinated, Biden also knows that a large majority of people who die of COVID are likely to be Republicans. By continuing to encourage Republicans to get vaccinated, Biden can ensure that they won't get vaccinated, and the voter pool will over time be purged of more and more Rs. It's true that in any individual wave, the numbers of deaths are limited. But when unvaccinated Republican voters who have suffered some minor lung damage from their first or second infection get re-infected for a third time, and a fourth time in subsequent ongoing waves, with each additional round of recurring infections, more of them will die and pretty soon we are talking about enough voters dead to swing an election, especially when the partisan difference in vaccination rates is so large.

So is Biden crazy - or genocidal - like a fox? Was this the plan all along?

No.  Biden is giving the best advice he can for all Americans.  If one segment of the population chooses to disregard that advice then it's their problem, not his.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Is there any data on what % of new COVID cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are breakthrough cases?

The only data I could find was from Virginia.

Between Jan. 17 and Aug. 14, 252,938 people developed COVID-19 symptoms or tested positive. Almost all of these were among unvaccinated people; only 10,712 infections have been reported during the same time among the 4.7 million Virginians who have been fully vaccinated. Unvaccinated people developed COVID-19 at a rate 12.5 times higher than fully vaccinated people.

Fully vaccinated people: 227
Partially vaccinated people: 1,147
Unvaccinated people: 2,836

If we could get nationwide numbers conclusively demonstrating that the current surge is almost entirely due to unvaccinated people, that would make the political case for vaccine mandates a lot more palatable.