PEW: Biden +10

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1314433299687911425?s=20

What about Evan McMullin voters? I'd be interested to know that. But at any rate, this doesn't surprise me. Biden has consolidated almost all of those who did not vote for Trump in 2016 (which was 54% of the voting electorate), and is decisively winning first-time or returning voters by a larger margin than Clinton did. And this is yet another poll showing him up by high single digits or low double digits.

[AGA]

I put the numbers into the NBC demographic slider without changing turnout and got the 413 map.

[Hammy]

I put the numbers into the NBC demographic slider without changing turnout and got the 413 map.

What turnout did you use? I put it at 65% across the board.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1314433299687911425?s=20

Confirms what I've been saying for decades about Green voters. Many of them at war with the Democratic Party whatever the cost, even if it means allowing literal fascism.

[AGA]

I put the numbers into the NBC demographic slider without changing turnout and got the 413 map.

What turnout did you use? I put it at 65% across the board.

Just whatever the default was; I didn't change it.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Confirms what I've been saying for decades about Green voters. Many of them at war with the Democratic Party whatever the cost, even if it means allowing literal fascism.

That's the mentality of lefties everywhere. In their eyes the real enemy isn't the right but the center-left.

[NOVA Green]

The 49-44 Biden among Male Voters obviously is HUGE here which mirrors other recent polls showing increased support for Biden among Men.

[NOVA Green]

It is also noteworthy that for a Top Quality pollster, it has Biden leading with all age ranges, except with 65+ being tied.

I believe the Senior number is slightly lower for Biden than the other recent double-digit Biden polls and the 50-64 bracket a bit higher at 49-47 Biden.

[Gass3268]

It is also noteworthy that for a Top Quality pollster, it has Biden leading with all age ranges, except with 65+ being tied.

I believe the Senior number is slightly lower for Biden than the other recent double-digit Biden polls and the 50-64 bracket a bit higher at 49-47 Biden.

I've noticed a lot of polls where Biden does really well with seniors, he does poorly with middle age folks. In polls he doesn't do well with seniors, he typically is doing better with middle aged people.

[NOVA Green]

It is also noteworthy that for a Top Quality pollster, it has Biden leading with all age ranges, except with 65+ being tied.

I believe the Senior number is slightly lower for Biden than the other recent double-digit Biden polls and the 50-64 bracket a bit higher at 49-47 Biden.

I've noticed a lot of polls where Biden does really well with seniors, he does poorly with middle age folks. In polls he doesn't do well with seniors, he typically is doing better with middle aged people.

But simultaneously we have seen many arguments and even news stories about Biden's poor polling numbers among Gen-Exers compared to voters under 35 and over 65, which almost create a "Young & Gray" Biden Alliance vs those in the Middle age brackets.

It's a legit subject of exploration, although perhaps not a discussion regarding this particular poll.

But still a compare / contrast of the national polling from quality pollsters over comparative time frames, plus matching in some of the quality Statewide polls.

An old trite phrase which I keep pulling out on Atlas is "elections are won and lost at the margins".

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Used the Cook demographic calculator and plugged those in, and put turnout at 65% to match the margin (+6 to +7) this would realistically produce.

Stands Up For What He Believes In: Trump +8

Not sure why this is on there as it's too subjective and not always a good thing depending on what one believes.

It's definitely a question that could be asked in a negative light:

"Acts too impulsively, on emotion"

[wbrocks67]

Jorgensen and Hawkins getting a net 6%? Sis...

[afleitch]

The demographics closely match the 2018 midterms. Biden is 5 points (in terms of the candidate gap) worse with 18-29 year olds but 8 points better with 30-49 year olds and 3 and 2 points better with the oldest voters.

He's doing 3 points better with white voters, no change with black, 6 points worse with Hispanic voters and no change with Asian voters.

He's doing 13 points better amongst whites with a degree but 2 points worse amongst those without. But still 9 points ahead of Clinton.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Jorgensen 4% (not previously included)
Hawkins 1% (not previously included)
None/other 1% (-1)
No answer 0% (but some voters) (n/c from No answer at 0% but with some voters)

[Torrain]

Jorgensen 4% (not previously included)
Hawkins 1% (not previously included)
None/other 1% (-1)
No answer 0% (but some voters) (n/c from No answer at 0% but with some voters)

I must say, 4% really feels too high for the LP ticket, especially this year. Maybe its just the polling sample, but I'd be highly surprised if they even match Johnson's 2016 performance, let alone exceed it.

[Torrain]

Will this poll finally be the one that pushes the 538 average over the 'double-digit' edge?

https://twitter.com/galendruke/status/1314551307718529030

Looks like it...

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Yet somehow Texas is going to “trend right” according to jokesters YouGov and Rassy

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Will this poll finally be the one that pushes the 538 average over the 'double-digit' edge?

https://twitter.com/galendruke/status/1314551307718529030

Looks like it...

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lol when Biden + 10 is one of Trump's better national polls of the week

[Orser67]

So Biden's got a 91-point lead with Clinton voters (compared to Trump's 86-point lead with 2016 Trump voters), a 93-point lead with Democratic leaners (compared to Trump's 76-point lead with Republican leaners), a 23-point lead with 2016 third party voters, and a 16-point lead with 2016 non-voters. Seems like he's doing really well with Republican leaners and 2016 third party voters but, given that he has a 10-point lead and that Democrats have dominated first-time voters in recent history, I'm a little surprised he's not doing better with 2016 non-voters.

[It’s so Joever]

Once again, a trend of district and national level polls looking better for Biden than State polls is emerging.
Keep in mind in 2016, the national polls were more accurate than the State level ones.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Once again, a trend of district and national level polls looking better for Biden than State polls is emerging.
Keep in mind in 2016, the national polls were more accurate than the State level ones.

But in 2012 the state polls were more accurate.

The difference is that in 2012 and 2016 the two sets of polls suggested markedly different potential outcomes, whereas this time around both sets suggest clear Biden victories, just on different scales (278 freiwal+FL/maybe AZ and NC vs. JOESLIDE). The 2012 national polls incorrectly suggested a nail-biter whereas the state polls correctely suggested a modest-but-convincing Obama victory; the 2016 state polls incorrectly suggested an easy Clinton victory whereas the national polls correctly suggested a nail-biter.

[Hope For A New Era]

I put the numbers into the NBC demographic slider without changing turnout and got the 413 map.

It really does feel like that's where we're headed.

[Rand]

[The Mikado]

I put the numbers into the NBC demographic slider without changing turnout and got the 413 map.

What turnout did you use? I put it at 65% across the board.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1314433299687911425?s=20

Confirms what I've been saying for decades about Green voters. Many of them at war with the Democratic Party whatever the cost, even if it means allowing literal fascism.

This poll had Jorgensen at 4 and Hawkins at 1, meaning their Jorgensen/Hawkins sample here was 80% Libertarians and only 20% Greens.

[Storr]

lol the education gap

White people with a college degree - Biden +21
White people with no college degree - Trump +26

Trends are real, after all.