NYT/Siena: NV-Biden +6 | OH-Biden +1
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  NYT/Siena: NV-Biden +6 | OH-Biden +1
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Author Topic: NYT/Siena: NV-Biden +6 | OH-Biden +1  (Read 2151 times)
Sestak
jk2020
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« on: October 07, 2020, 12:08:56 PM »

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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2020, 12:09:34 PM »

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Buzz
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2020, 12:10:30 PM »

Gotta love those undecideds!!!!!!!  Not much to take way here other than Nevada is likely D
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redjohn
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2020, 12:10:36 PM »

Wish undecideds weren't so high. Good news for Biden, obviously.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2020, 12:10:37 PM »


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Buzz
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« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2020, 12:11:16 PM »

Undecideds FTW!  The Ohio Poll is borderline useless and we already knew Nevada was safe D.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2020, 12:11:31 PM »

OMG they really need to start pushing people. Come on.

Ohio at least, on margins, lines up what we're seeing elsewhere.

NV looks good for Biden considering polls underestimate Dems and their last was +4. Also, they had Heller winning in 2018.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2020, 12:12:11 PM »

Undecideds FTW!  The Ohio Poll is borderline useless and we already knew Nevada was safe D.

As I think I said in the poll hype thread, Nevada's margin will likely be under ten, but it's a hard under-ten margin.
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Holmes
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« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2020, 12:12:37 PM »

I just knew their poll would show Nevada to the right of Arizona.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2020, 12:14:01 PM »

Why do all these NYT polls have double digit undecides?
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2020, 12:14:21 PM »

So probably more like Biden +10 in NV, and Trump +2 in OH.
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forza nocta
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« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2020, 12:17:08 PM »

I cant even have fun with these NYT polls anymore because of these damn undecideds they have
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2020, 12:17:20 PM »

OHIO
Trump approval: 48/48 (=)
Trump fav: 48/50 (-2)
Biden fav: 48/48 (=)
Harris fav: 43/44 (-1)
Pence fav: 50/42 (+8)

NEVADA
Trump approval: 46/51 (-5)
Trump fav: 44/52 (-8)
Biden fav: 51/46 (+5)
Harris fav: 48/43 (+5)
Pence fav: 47/47 (=)
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2020, 12:20:27 PM »

OHIO
Trump approval: 48/48 (=)
Trump fav: 48/50 (-2)
Biden fav: 48/48 (=)
Harris fav: 43/44 (-1)
Pence fav: 50/42 (+8)

NEVADA
Trump approval: 46/51 (-5)
Trump fav: 44/52 (-8)
Biden fav: 51/46 (+5)
Harris fav: 48/43 (+5)
Pence fav: 47/47 (=)

LOL, Ohioans love them some Pence.
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Darthpi Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2020, 12:22:39 PM »

I'd actually be a bit concerned about the polling in Nevada if it weren't for the fact that it operates as a machine politics state.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2020, 12:22:47 PM »

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/oh-nv-crosstabs/d91c22da8b8953eb/full.pdf

October 2-6

NV
660 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%
Changes with September 8-10 poll

Biden 48% (+2)
Trump 42% (n/c)
Jorgensen 3% (n/c)
Someone else 1% (n/c)
Not voting for President 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Don't know/refused 6% (-1)

Hawkins previously at 0%

OH
661 likely voters
MoE: 4.3%

Biden 45%
Trump 44%
Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 1%
Someone else 0% (but some voters)
Not voting for President 0% (but some voters)
Don't know/refused 7%
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2020, 12:23:48 PM »

I'd actually be a bit concerned about the polling in Nevada if it weren't for the fact that it operates as a machine politics state.

Biden has been up 5-6 consistently in a state that has seen Rs winning in polling in both 2016 and 2018...
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Darthpi Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2020, 12:25:12 PM »

I'd actually be a bit concerned about the polling in Nevada if it weren't for the fact that it operates as a machine politics state.

Biden has been up 5-6 consistently in a state that has seen Rs winning in polling in both 2016 and 2018...

Yes, exactly. Reid's Democratic machine out there really helps Democrats beat the polls reliably.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2020, 12:27:48 PM »

Push. The. Damn. Undecideds.
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Statilius the Epicurean
Thersites
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« Reply #19 on: October 07, 2020, 12:29:48 PM »

Biden up 6 in a Nevada poll means he's up like 12 in real life, right?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #20 on: October 07, 2020, 12:46:56 PM »

Nate Cohn and Nate Silver trying to make the case that these polls are good for Trump, despite the fact that Biden +1 in OH would literally be about a Biden +9/10 national lead.
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2020, 12:48:19 PM »

Nate Cohn and Nate Silver trying to make the case that these polls are good for Trump, despite the fact that Biden +1 in OH would literally be about a Biden +9/10 national lead.

ONLY ONE THING'S FOR CERTAIN: DON'T COUNT TRUMP OUT YET Sad Sad Sad Smiley Smiley Smiley
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2020, 12:58:31 PM »

Nate Cohn and Nate Silver trying to make the case that these polls are good for Trump, despite the fact that Biden +1 in OH would literally be about a Biden +9/10 national lead.

They're making the case that they're *relatively* good for Trump compared to some of the other recent polls.  But Nate Cohn even made these points:

Quote
Now, I think these are two pretty good pollsters. But we're at the point where the 'good' news for the president is basically the old average, and that's generally a sign things have shifted.

Quote
A lot of you seem upset that I called these polls relatively good for Trump. But look, we're at a possible inflection point in this race. There are polls raising the possibility of a true landslide unseen in decades. It's quite important if/when good polls don't show that.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #23 on: October 07, 2020, 01:08:23 PM »

Nevada is out of the picture for trump in 2020.
OH looks to be moving to a toss-up status.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #24 on: October 07, 2020, 01:18:00 PM »

Nate Cohn and Nate Silver trying to make the case that these polls are good for Trump, despite the fact that Biden +1 in OH would literally be about a Biden +9/10 national lead.

They're making the case that they're *relatively* good for Trump compared to some of the other recent polls.  But Nate Cohn even made these points:

Quote
Now, I think these are two pretty good pollsters. But we're at the point where the 'good' news for the president is basically the old average, and that's generally a sign things have shifted.

Quote
A lot of you seem upset that I called these polls relatively good for Trump. But look, we're at a possible inflection point in this race. There are polls raising the possibility of a true landslide unseen in decades. It's quite important if/when good polls don't show that.

The only poll that doesn't show that is Wisconsin, where this is *one* poll with 13% undecided/other, which is frankly ridiculous. Ohio being Biden +1 is a 9-pt shift since 2016, right at the 538 average. And considering NV's polling history, a Dem being up 6 there is practically double digits.
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