NYT/Siena: NV-Biden +6 | OH-Biden +1 (user search)
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  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  NYT/Siena: NV-Biden +6 | OH-Biden +1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: NYT/Siena: NV-Biden +6 | OH-Biden +1  (Read 2077 times)
wbrocks67
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Posts: 22,236


« on: October 07, 2020, 12:11:31 PM »

OMG they really need to start pushing people. Come on.

Ohio at least, on margins, lines up what we're seeing elsewhere.

NV looks good for Biden considering polls underestimate Dems and their last was +4. Also, they had Heller winning in 2018.
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wbrocks67
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Posts: 22,236


« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2020, 12:17:20 PM »

OHIO
Trump approval: 48/48 (=)
Trump fav: 48/50 (-2)
Biden fav: 48/48 (=)
Harris fav: 43/44 (-1)
Pence fav: 50/42 (+8)

NEVADA
Trump approval: 46/51 (-5)
Trump fav: 44/52 (-8)
Biden fav: 51/46 (+5)
Harris fav: 48/43 (+5)
Pence fav: 47/47 (=)
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wbrocks67
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Posts: 22,236


« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2020, 12:23:48 PM »

I'd actually be a bit concerned about the polling in Nevada if it weren't for the fact that it operates as a machine politics state.

Biden has been up 5-6 consistently in a state that has seen Rs winning in polling in both 2016 and 2018...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2020, 12:46:56 PM »

Nate Cohn and Nate Silver trying to make the case that these polls are good for Trump, despite the fact that Biden +1 in OH would literally be about a Biden +9/10 national lead.
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wbrocks67
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Posts: 22,236


« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2020, 01:18:00 PM »

Nate Cohn and Nate Silver trying to make the case that these polls are good for Trump, despite the fact that Biden +1 in OH would literally be about a Biden +9/10 national lead.

They're making the case that they're *relatively* good for Trump compared to some of the other recent polls.  But Nate Cohn even made these points:

Quote
Now, I think these are two pretty good pollsters. But we're at the point where the 'good' news for the president is basically the old average, and that's generally a sign things have shifted.

Quote
A lot of you seem upset that I called these polls relatively good for Trump. But look, we're at a possible inflection point in this race. There are polls raising the possibility of a true landslide unseen in decades. It's quite important if/when good polls don't show that.

The only poll that doesn't show that is Wisconsin, where this is *one* poll with 13% undecided/other, which is frankly ridiculous. Ohio being Biden +1 is a 9-pt shift since 2016, right at the 538 average. And considering NV's polling history, a Dem being up 6 there is practically double digits.
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