AK - Alaska Survey Research: Trump +4%
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  AK - Alaska Survey Research: Trump +4%
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Author Topic: AK - Alaska Survey Research: Trump +4%  (Read 1352 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 06, 2020, 08:30:27 PM »

https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1313647136257372161

September 25 - October 4
676 likely voters
Changes with June 23 - July 7 poll

Trump 50% (+1)
Biden 46% (-2)
Undecided 4% (n/c)
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Darthpi Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2020, 08:36:02 PM »

Lean Trump
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Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
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« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2020, 09:19:30 PM »

But sure, go on and tell me AK-SEN isn't competitive.
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Hammy
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2020, 09:24:09 PM »

Remember when Alaska voting 60% Republican wasn't even in question?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2020, 10:01:17 PM »

Trump is going to win Alaska, but this is nevertheless a significant swing against him, given that he won the state by 14% against Hillary Clinton last time around. And if Trump is only up by single digits, that bodes well for Al Gross, who could very well pull off an upset against Dan Sullivan here.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2020, 10:04:45 PM »

Nice to see--and it looks like AK will be contested in the near future.  

And even though it's unlikely Biden wins here, the Democrats need to place some more resources.  I agree that Gross could pull the upset here and take Sullivan out.
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Sbane
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« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2020, 10:13:44 PM »

Trump is going to win Alaska, but this is nevertheless a significant swing against him, given that he won the state by 14% against Hillary Clinton last time around. And if Trump is only up by single digits, that bodes well for Al Gross, who could very well pull off an upset against Dan Sullivan here.

Trump only got 51% of the vote here in 2016. His number in this poll is right about where he was in 2016.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2020, 10:21:45 PM »

Trump is going to win Alaska, but this is nevertheless a significant swing against him, given that he won the state by 14% against Hillary Clinton last time around. And if Trump is only up by single digits, that bodes well for Al Gross, who could very well pull off an upset against Dan Sullivan here.

Trump only got 51% of the vote here in 2016. His number in this poll is right about where he was in 2016.

I'm aware of that; Alaska-like always-had one of the largest third-party votes of any state in 2016. This poll suggests that Biden is consolidating most of that vote-as appears to be happening elsewhere in the country. Nevertheless, this still constitutes a swing against Trump, and would be the best Democratic performance in the state in decades. Barack Obama lost Alaska by the same margin as Hillary Clinton in 2012 (both he and Romney received higher percentages than Clinton and Trump), and of course, lost the state by 21% in 2008 because of Sarah Palin. A 4% loss represents a significant improvement for the Democrats, considering this.
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Sbane
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« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2020, 10:33:01 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2020, 10:36:29 PM by Sbane »

Trump is going to win Alaska, but this is nevertheless a significant swing against him, given that he won the state by 14% against Hillary Clinton last time around. And if Trump is only up by single digits, that bodes well for Al Gross, who could very well pull off an upset against Dan Sullivan here.

Trump only got 51% of the vote here in 2016. His number in this poll is right about where he was in 2016.

I'm aware of that; Alaska-like always-had one of the largest third-party votes of any state in 2016. This poll suggests that Biden is consolidating most of that vote-as appears to be happening elsewhere in the country. Nevertheless, this still constitutes a swing against Trump, and would be the best Democratic performance in the state in decades. Barack Obama lost Alaska by the same margin as Hillary Clinton in 2012 (both he and Romney received higher percentages than Clinton and Trump), and of course, lost the state by 21% in 2008 because of Sarah Palin. A 4% loss represents a significant improvement for the Democrats, considering this.

Absolutely. A Democrat getting 46% of the vote in Alaska would be quite the achievement. This goes to show how weak Trump will be throughout the west as the vote is dominated by urban-suburban areas, liberal small cities and rural Native American voters in places like New Mexico and Arizona.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2020, 10:38:28 PM »

D's aren't winning by, 14,, more like 6, pts enough to carry AK , anyways. Polls are inflated
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2020, 03:10:58 AM »

Another Alaska poll!!!!!!

Sorry... been wanting to see more from fellow NW State for some time.

Insert usual Caveat for Alaska: "Tricky State to Poll".... and very few do..."   Wink

Unfortunately we don't really much polling history from the AK-PRES 2020 election, so we really shooting darts at a dartboard here, blindfolded, and one hand tied behind the back at a 7' range.

Still this is much better than a SurveyMonkey any day time week month of the Year...

Not all data points are created equal...

Nate has this as a B/C and the Harstad Strategic Research from 9/28 at the same rating as a 46-47 Biden Trump....

Not too many data points here, and quite likely some prospecting "Way Up North" for those investing resources in pursuit of Alaskan Gold.

Still, def worthy of a Biden Radio war within the State and ads in Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Juneau.

Political Biden Jiu Jitsu against the crazy Trump Meme of being a Karate Kid vs Biden from a few months back.

We gotta a Senate Seat, House Seat, and even (4) Electoral Votes and down-ballots.

Bet big or stay at home Biden.

Meanwhile in Honor of one of the US-PRES-2020 Alaska Polls, gotta throw on a song from an Old Country Artist, Willie Horton who I first listened to back in 4th or 5th Grade in my History Homeroom.

John Wayne portrays Joe Biden in this epic class Movie & Classic Country.






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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2020, 04:03:09 AM »

New Poll: Alaska President by Alaska Survey Research on 2020-10-04

Summary: D: 46%, R: 50%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2020, 04:09:05 AM »

16 new state polls yesterday.

All added to the database.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2020, 06:41:03 AM »

Trump is going to win Alaska, but this is nevertheless a significant swing against him, given that he won the state by 14% against Hillary Clinton last time around. And if Trump is only up by single digits, that bodes well for Al Gross, who could very well pull off an upset against Dan Sullivan here.

Trump only got 51% of the vote here in 2016. His number in this poll is right about where he was in 2016.

I'm aware of that; Alaska-like always-had one of the largest third-party votes of any state in 2016. This poll suggests that Biden is consolidating most of that vote-as appears to be happening elsewhere in the country. Nevertheless, this still constitutes a swing against Trump, and would be the best Democratic performance in the state in decades. Barack Obama lost Alaska by the same margin as Hillary Clinton in 2012 (both he and Romney received higher percentages than Clinton and Trump), and of course, lost the state by 21% in 2008 because of Sarah Palin. A 4% loss represents a significant improvement for the Democrats, considering this.

Absolutely. A Democrat getting 46% of the vote in Alaska would be quite the achievement. This goes to show how weak Trump will be throughout the west as the vote is dominated by urban-suburban areas, liberal small cities and rural Native American voters in places like New Mexico and Arizona.

Despite being in a radically different region of the country and having the polar opposite climate, I wonder if the "next Arizona" after Arizona itself will be Alaska, with it gradually trending D until it becomes a true swing state in like 2032.

You can make arguments for it, for Utah or for the current trends to stop or even reverse tbh.
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woodley park
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« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2020, 07:09:42 AM »

Its beginning to feel a lot like 2008.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2020, 07:10:28 AM »

It's not a blue tsunami at least not yet, of a 500 EC landslide, but a blue wave it probably is and TX probably stays R. Sullivan won by 5 pts against Mark Begich, it was turning blue when Dunleavy was being recalled, but Dunleavy remained Gov. I told you these Act blue wants you to donate, most of the time, the wave insurance candidates lose, most of the people I donated to lost like Joe Kennedy. I have donate to Harrison and Bollier and Bullock whom may not win either, like Kate McGinty or McGrath
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Woody
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« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2020, 08:21:35 AM »

https://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/alaska/
https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Alaska
Trump is going to win by 15+ points here
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2020, 09:25:10 AM »


2020 is not 2016.

2020 is not 2016.

2020 is not 2016.

2020 is not 2016.

2020 is not 2016.
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