Triton isn't that reliable and dominant parties tend to be underestimated in safe states. I would shocked if WV trended D.
You really, REALLY should not be.
A lot of people who unironically believed in the “economically anxious” theory are gonna be shocked when a white man outperforms a white woman and black man in states like this, and it’s gonna be highly amusing to those of us who actually live in these places and know them well.
Biden respondents reasonably well to 'muh economic anxiety' (a stupid term, but what I mean is standard economic populism) too, FWIW. He's not a traditional populist, but his message has a touch of that in a post-COVID-19 environment and his campaign has certainly kept a tighter focus on the kitchen table issues than HRC's. Trump's also governed much more like a traditional conservative than he campaigned and therefore is primed to alienate a lot of the constituencies that should be going his way.
All that said, look at the voter registration changes in WV and tell me with a straight face that it'll trend - not swing, but trend - Democratic. For the first time, Republican registration crossed over Democratic statewide. West Virginians were voting for no-names in the Democratic primary because none of the real candidates satisfied them. This state is getting more Republican.
