Hart Research (D): Biden leads GA and NC, Trump OH, IA and TX
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Author Topic: Hart Research (D): Biden leads GA and NC, Trump OH, IA and TX  (Read 1857 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 02, 2020, 03:32:45 PM »
« edited: October 02, 2020, 03:41:51 PM by Tender Branson »
Wave 2.

September 24 to 27, 2020.

GA:
Biden: 50 (+3)
Trump: 47

NC:
Biden: 49 (+2)
Trump: 47

OH:
Biden: 47
Trump: 49 (+2)

IA:
Biden: 47
Trump: 49 (+2)

TX:
Biden: 47
Trump: 49 (+2)

https://hrc-prod-requests.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/ME-13067-HRC-Issues-10-State-1.pdf?mtime=20201002132812&focal=none
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republican1993
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« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2020, 03:34:40 PM »
arizona and florida look very off to me, but it is a d based polling group.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2020, 03:35:38 PM »
That age gap in Texas is just going to eviscerate the Texas Republican Party. By 2040 we might be talking about Texas the way we talk about California now (or did a decade ago): a solid Democratic state where it's almost baffling how it once seemed solidly Republican.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2020, 03:38:10 PM »
Sry, wait a minute:

Quote
The first wave consisted of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; the second wave included Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.

I was going by the graphic.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2020, 03:38:21 PM »
« Edited: October 02, 2020, 03:49:50 PM by Arch »
PA:
Biden: 53 (+11)
Trump: 42

AZ:
Biden: 53 (+11)
Trump: 42

WI:
Biden: 51 (+7)
Trump: 44

FL:
Biden: 51 (+6)
Trump: 45

MI:
Biden: 50 (+5)
Trump: 45

GA:
Biden: 50 (+3)
Trump: 47

NC:
Biden: 49 (+2)
Trump: 47

OH:
Biden: 47
Trump: 49 (+2)

IA:
Biden: 47
Trump: 49 (+2)

TX:
Biden: 47
Trump: 49 (+2)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2020, 03:43:33 PM »
5th poll of Biden leading in GA... tossup races continue in TX, IA, and OH
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2020, 03:43:42 PM »
Now it’s correct.

The results of wave 1 (PA, AZ, FL, MI, WI) were already posted on Sept. 25:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=399470.0
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Person Man
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« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2020, 03:45:28 PM »
Quote from: Arch on October 02, 2020, 03:38:21 PM
PA:
Biden: 53 (+9)
Trump: 42

AZ:
Biden: 53 (+9) 11?
Trump: 42

WI:
Biden: 51 (+7)
Trump: 44

FL:
Biden: 51 (+6)
Trump: 45

MI:
Biden: 50 (+5)
Trump: 45

GA:
Biden: 50 (+3)
Trump: 47

NC:
Biden: 49 (+2)
Trump: 47

OH:
Biden: 47
Trump: 49 (+2)

IA:
Biden: 47
Trump: 49 (+2)

TX:
Biden: 47
Trump: 49 (+2)
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2020, 03:50:15 PM »

Good catch! Fixed.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2020, 03:50:29 PM »
For the Human Rights Campaign
400 likely voters per state
MoE: 4.9% for each state
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2020, 04:27:10 PM »
GA to the left of NC! Impossible!

Also, if polls continue like this in IA/OH/TX, I am betting on polling errors playing out like they have the past few cycles in each state
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Buzz
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« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2020, 04:31:56 PM »
TBH some of these numbers are outrageous, so I'll file this as probably junk.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2020, 04:35:36 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 02, 2020, 04:31:56 PM
TBH some of these numbers are outrageous, so I'll file this as probably junk.

Which ones? The only one that seems super off to me is Arizona and maybe Pennsylvania, but even that's pretty close to the Biden +9's we've gotten. Everything else is close to the average.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2020, 04:45:22 PM »
Now, that Trump is going to hospital, Trump is a liability now and won't be campaigning at all. Biden is more likely to get a 538 landslide now

It looked earlier that Trump was gonna come out of it, now, it's not a quick recovery
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2020, 06:56:37 PM »
I honestly wouldn't be shocked if this predicted the exact result in every state.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2020, 07:08:26 PM »
Quote from: 413 on October 02, 2020, 03:35:38 PM
That age gap in Texas is just going to eviscerate the Texas Republican Party. By 2040 we might be talking about Texas the way we talk about California now (or did a decade ago): a solid Democratic state where it's almost baffling how it once seemed solidly Republican.

I saw a photo the 2020 TX GOP convention, it was 100% white and the almost everyone was old. I saw a few people in their 50's and 60's, but there was no under the age of 30 there.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
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« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2020, 07:18:39 PM »
Trump+2 in Texas with a 5% margin of error. Certainly sounds like a tossup to me.

Also, no race/ethnicity crosstabs??
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2020, 07:44:10 PM »
Quote from: 413 on October 02, 2020, 03:35:38 PM
That age gap in Texas is just going to eviscerate the Texas Republican Party. By 2040 we might be talking about Texas the way we talk about California now (or did a decade ago): a solid Democratic state where it's almost baffling how it once seemed solidly Republican.

currents trends arent gonna last that long cause if they did the entire gop from coast to coast would be totally eviscerated by then and would basically be where the CA GOP is now
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2020, 08:13:48 PM »
Quote from: MR. KAYNE WEST on October 02, 2020, 04:45:22 PM
Now, that Trump is going to hospital, Trump is a liability now and won't be campaigning at all. Biden is more likely to get a 538 landslide now

It looked earlier that Trump was gonna come out of it, now, it's not a quick recovery

The oracle has spoken.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #19 on: October 03, 2020, 04:20:09 AM »
New Poll: Georgia President by Hart Research Associates on 2020-09-27

Summary: D: 50%, R: 47%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #20 on: October 03, 2020, 04:22:51 AM »
New Poll: Iowa President by Hart Research Associates on 2020-09-27

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #21 on: October 03, 2020, 04:25:04 AM »
New Poll: North Carolina President by Hart Research Associates on 2020-09-27

Summary: D: 49%, R: 47%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #22 on: October 03, 2020, 04:27:25 AM »
New Poll: Ohio President by Hart Research Associates on 2020-09-27

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #23 on: October 03, 2020, 04:29:42 AM »
New Poll: Texas President by Hart Research Associates on 2020-09-27

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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