Hart Research Associates: Biden +11 in AZ, +6 in FL, +5 in MI, +11 in PA, +7 in WI
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 04:47:19 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Hart Research Associates: Biden +11 in AZ, +6 in FL, +5 in MI, +11 in PA, +7 in WI
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Hart Research Associates: Biden +11 in AZ, +6 in FL, +5 in MI, +11 in PA, +7 in WI  (Read 3050 times)
Splash
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,038
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 25, 2020, 08:57:04 PM »
« edited: September 25, 2020, 09:13:15 PM by Splash »


Full results: https://www.hrc.org/parts/HRC-Poll-917-202020.pdf

"A total of 400 likely voters were interviewed in each state from September 17 to 19, 2020.  (Approximately 30% of interviews were completed on September 19, the day after the passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.)  The margin of error in each state is ±4.9 percentage points for the full sample, with higher tolerances for subgroups in each state."
Logged
Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,985
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2020, 08:59:23 PM »

How is this group rated on 538? If it's true, hopefully it puts all the PA bedwetting to rest.
Logged
Devout Centrist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2020, 08:59:57 PM »

Did they weigh by education
Logged
Splash
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,038
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2020, 09:01:14 PM »
« Edited: September 25, 2020, 09:12:06 PM by Splash »

The link to the PDF for the full results is apparently broken, so I have no idea about the methodology and survey dates, but the guy who tweeted this out is the deputy comms director for the Human Rights Campaign, so I think it's legit.

Edit: the link works now. I added it to the OP.
Logged
Thomas D
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,042
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -6.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2020, 09:02:29 PM »

Biden up by more than twice in AZ than what he is in MI?  I wish these numbers were true. But I'm skeptical
Logged
Bootes Void
iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,682
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2020, 09:03:36 PM »

Woke
Logged
SaneDemocrat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,339


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2020, 09:04:58 PM »

They had Clinton 46-37 in late October.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,418
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2020, 09:05:35 PM »

WTF???

Ok--- understand how National vs State polls don't always align, but although I *want* to believe some of these numbers gravitate significantly from other recent polling in these states, and some aligns...

Good they are not "poll herding", but call me skeptical, until we understand more about their history, methodology, etc...

Logged
President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,141
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2020, 09:06:06 PM »

How is this group rated on 538? If it's true, hopefully it puts all the PA bedwetting to rest.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
it's not rated by 538.
Logged
Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,729


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2020, 09:08:00 PM »

This poll really loves the #trends, that's for sure.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2020, 09:10:28 PM »

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

sorry couldn't resist
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2020, 09:10:49 PM »

Hart Research Associates is one of the top Democratic polling firms in the country. They aren't ranked on 538, but they are the Democratic half of the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll (Republican half is Public Opinion Strategies).
Logged
forza nocta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 613


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2020, 09:13:12 PM »

MI having the lowest margin here makes it iffy
Logged
republican1993
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 388
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2020, 09:16:07 PM »

stop the debates! stop the forum posts! race is over according to hart!
Logged
libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,610
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2020, 09:16:09 PM »

N U T
Logged
ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
New Frontier
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,230
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 25, 2020, 09:22:43 PM »



Don't know if I can trust these numbers?
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 25, 2020, 09:37:51 PM »

Weird results, but MI voting to the right of AZ/PA (though obviously not by this much) is a very underrated possibility.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,522
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2020, 09:41:21 PM »

Weird results, but MI voting to the right of AZ/PA (though obviously not by this much) is a very underrated possibility.

Yes, this is something to watch out for  I believe the Biden margins are too high, but this is the order in which the states would fall in 2016/18 style polling errors world. 
Logged
The Mikado
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,678


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2020, 10:08:42 PM »

Go home, Hart, you're drunk.
Logged
Splash
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,038
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2020, 10:10:44 PM »

Hart Research Associates is one of the top Democratic polling firms in the country. They aren't ranked on 538, but they are the Democratic half of the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll (Republican half is Public Opinion Strategies).

538 entered their polls and gave them a grade of B/C.
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,589
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 25, 2020, 10:11:15 PM »

Obviously not entirely accurate, but if remotely true, Trump is toast...so he almost certainly is.
Logged
Buzz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,186


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2020, 10:16:41 PM »

Not even worth the time to examine with numbers like that.  Just throw it in the average and move along.
Logged
It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,946


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 25, 2020, 11:43:21 PM »

Not even worth the time to examine with numbers like that.  Just throw it in the average and move along.
AKA: Nearly every poll
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,805
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: September 26, 2020, 12:11:21 AM »

Good news for Biden
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,351
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: September 26, 2020, 01:31:33 AM »

Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.053 seconds with 12 queries.