GA-WSBTV/Landmark: Biden +2

[tagimaucia]

All those undecideds will break hard for Trump, due to the southern whites bump.

I mean, I'll take a look at the cross tabs when they come out, but the undecideds in every other recent  GA poll I've looked at have been majority POC.

10% of Black voters and 8% of white voters are undecided, so I guess undecideds in this poll are majority white.

Seems you're right in this one.  In the AJC poll they were 50-60% black and in the NYT/Siena they were almost entirely black + other non-whites.

[Granite City]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1311788873035452416?s=20

Lines up with the pattern. Probably a bit more meaningful to have a margin like that in such a polarised state.

[Woody]

All those undecideds will break hard for Trump, due to the southern whites bump.

That's not a thing

Yes it is. They always break hard for Rs.

[tagimaucia]

All those undecideds will break hard for Trump, due to the southern whites bump.

That's not a thing

Yes it is. They always break hard for Rs.

Polls were the most accurate in Georgia of any state in the last two cycles.

[WD]

All those undecideds will break hard for Trump, due to the southern whites bump.

That's not a thing

Yes it is. They always break hard for Rs.

In 2018 the RCP average was Kemp+3, he won by 1.5. We’ll see how Whites break, but GA polls slightly underestimate Democrats. GA is Tilt D.

[Roronoa D. Law]

The Georgia avatars on here have been saying Georgia can flip for the longest but nobody wanted to listen.

[MT Treasurer]

All those undecideds will break hard for Trump, due to the southern whites bump.

That's not a thing

Yes it is. They always break hard for Rs.

In 2018 the RCP average was Kemp+3, he won by 1.5. We’ll see how Whites break, but GA polls slightly underestimate Democrats. GA is Tilt D.

He knows all of this, he’s trolling and you guys are taking the bait so readily it’s not even funny.

[Lief 🗽]

The two post debate polls have now shown a 4 point and 9 point Biden bump. Tremendous stuff!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warnock and Ossoff are doing well against the Rs in GA

[YE]

All those undecideds will break hard for Trump, due to the southern whites bump.

That's not a thing

Yes it is. They always break hard for Rs.

In 2018 the RCP average was Kemp+3, he won by 1.5. We’ll see how Whites break, but GA polls slightly underestimate Democrats. GA is Tilt D.

He knows all of this, he’s trolling and you guys are taking the bait so readily it’s not even funny.

To be fair that use to be a thing when Dems were more competitive with non-college white voters in this region.

The issue here is Biden is doing 4% better with whites than Abrams.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

[Adam Griffin]

• Roughly equivalent %s of black and white undecideds
• Roughly twice as many white voters as black voters
• Black margin for Ds in GA is roughly twice as large as white margin for Rs

You do the math.

[Adam Griffin]

All those undecideds will break hard for Trump, due to the southern whites bump.

That's not a thing

Yes it is. They always break hard for Rs.

It was until 2016. Once Republicans started alienating the "thoughtful and considerate college-educated suburbrons" who loved to pretend to be undecided, the effect more or less vanished (if not reversed, as Abrams decisively won late-deciders in '18).

[Badger]

All those undecideds will break hard for Trump, due to the southern whites bump.

That's not a thing

Yes it is. They always break hard for Rs.

In 2018 the RCP average was Kemp+3, he won by 1.5. We’ll see how Whites break, but GA polls slightly underestimate Democrats. GA is Tilt D.

He knows all of this, he’s trolling and you guys are taking the bait so readily it’s not even funny.

Have you seen his posting history? He really is that Clueless.

[Alben Barkley]

Biden now ahead in the FiveThirtyEight polling average for GA. Still not ahead in the forecast, but it's narrowing.

[Badger]

• Roughly equivalent %s of black and white undecideds
• Roughly twice as many white voters as black voters
• Black margin for Ds in GA is roughly twice as large as white margin for Rs

You do the math.

I'm not trying to be snarky, Adam, but other than an implied message that Biden supporters should be optimistic over these numbers, your points are unclear as to exactly why.

As you are the Georgia political demographics expert, can you please elaborate for us great unwashed?

[Lief 🗽]

Did these jokers really not poll the senate races?

[Adam Griffin]

• Roughly equivalent %s of black and white undecideds
• Roughly twice as many white voters as black voters
• Black margin for Ds in GA is roughly twice as large as white margin for Rs

You do the math.

I'm not trying to be snarky, Adam, but other than an implied message that Biden supporters should be optimistic over these numbers, your points are unclear as to exactly why.

As you are the Georgia political demographics expert, can you please elaborate for us great unwashed?

It's just a simple mathematical observation. Both groups have roughly the same % of undecideds, which means you look at # of overall voters. One group has roughly twice as many voters than the other (electorate is 60% white vs 30% black), but the latter votes with twice the strength margin-wise (blacks at D+80 vs whites at R+40).

It means it is all a wash; that it cancels out. No GOP advantage to be had among the undecided (though there could be a DEM advantage, depending on where and who those undecided whites are).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Did these jokers really not poll the senate races?

They may have, but sometimes they dribble out their results over a few days.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Yet all the clowns that do the ratings have GA at Lean R and Iowa at tossup despite polling generally being better for Biden in the former.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Georgia President by Landmark Communications on 2020-09-30

Summary: D: 47%, R: 45%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

9 point swing to Biden?


"The voter suppression wall just got 9% higher!"

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 30, 2020
500 likely voters
MoE: 4%
Changes with August 29-31, 2020 poll
Swings calculated pre-rounding

Biden 47% (+6)
Trump 45% (-3)
Jorgensen 3% (+1)

[Calthrina950]

Previously, I was one of those who did not think Georgia was "there yet", and I believed that Trump would ultimately hold the state by a Kemp-esque margin (~ 2% or so). But now, I'm convinced that the state is possibly leaning to Biden and the Democrats, and he looks poised to end a 28-year losing streak for Democrats there. This does not bode well for Trump's chances in Florida and North Carolina, to say nothing of Arizona and Texas.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Trump +7 to Biden +2. Wowza.

The ABC and law and order bump.