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October 25, 2020, 11:26:14 AM
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  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  IA-WHO 13/RABA Research: Greenfield +12
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Author Topic: IA-WHO 13/RABA Research: Greenfield +12  (Read 793 times)
Biden +3 in Texas
dfwlibertylover
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« on: October 01, 2020, 04:05:41 PM »





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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2020, 04:08:10 PM »

This seems like an outlier. While I can see Greenfield at 51%, there's no way Ernst is at 39%.
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VARepublican
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2020, 04:10:18 PM »

LMAO
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FalterinArc
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2020, 04:10:42 PM »
« Edited: October 01, 2020, 04:23:41 PM by Rep. FalterinArc »

This makes me sad because I now feel like that Biden leading poll is an outlier too
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2020, 04:11:19 PM »

Holy guacamole.

Clearly an outlier but the prez topline is only Biden +2, so it's not like basics of this poll are super flawed. Even if you take like 7 off of Greenfield's margin, she's still up a healthy 5.

Need to see more polls, but one wonders if the bottom is falling out for Trump *and* Senate Republicans. Greenfield has led in every single high quality recent poll.
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RIP RBG
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« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2020, 04:11:33 PM »

Outlier, but it clearly seems like Greenfield is favored as of now.
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Dread it, Run from it, President Biden arrives all the same
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2020, 04:12:03 PM »

Obvious outlier, but Greenfields chances are pretty good.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2020, 04:12:05 PM »

This makes me sad because I know feel like that Biden leading poll is an outlier too

Selzer had it tied and NYT/Siena had it Biden +3. If anything, this is more in line (prez at least) and the Trump +5 polls are more of an outlier. I would even go as far as to say Monmouth is an expected outlier considering they've had an odd R-skew this cycle for a majority of their state polls.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2020, 04:12:40 PM »

Also, this has Greenfield high among Independents. That would not be a surprising result if Indies soured on Ernst, either.
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UWS
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« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2020, 04:15:26 PM »

I'm sorry, I have to laugh at this poll. There's no way Greenfield could be so far ahead.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2020, 04:21:07 PM »

I'm sorry, I have to laugh at this poll. There's no way Greenfield could be so far ahead.

Indeed, but polls have margins of error because they project confidence intervals and just because the median here is shocking doesn't mean there are no plausible results within this survey's MoE (4%).

September 23-26, 2020
780 likely voters
MoE: 4%
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2020, 04:21:21 PM »

If this doesn't push Greenfield ahead on the 538 forecast....
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Unbeatable Titan Joni Ernst
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« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2020, 04:21:51 PM »

Outlier
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Beida
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« Reply #13 on: October 01, 2020, 04:23:06 PM »

Worth noting that there are loads of people here who would rush to label this race Likely R if this same poll showed Ernst up by 12, though. It's not as simple as saying this poll must be inaccurate because you don't *think* it looks accurate.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: October 01, 2020, 04:23:22 PM »

Maybe we could have a better balanced discussion than just people coming in and yelling outlier!

This poll IS an outlier, but the fact remains that Greenfield appears to be pulling away a bit and Ernst has done herself no favors this entire cycle.
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Jayde
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« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2020, 04:23:58 PM »

Ahem.

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #16 on: October 01, 2020, 04:24:35 PM »

Ehhhh, no.  Greenfield isn't up by THAT much and she CERTAINLY isn't leading among men.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #17 on: October 01, 2020, 04:25:05 PM »

Where is MT Treasurer he has been no where to be seen since Trump flubbed the debate. He told us that Ernst is safe due to fact she passed bipartisanship bills. 2 down 1 to go and we must see a MT poll to show him Daines is toast
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #18 on: October 01, 2020, 04:26:16 PM »

Greenfield isn't ahead by that much but it's getting harder by the day to argue that she isn't ahead.
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Holmes
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« Reply #19 on: October 01, 2020, 04:28:41 PM »

Wish we lived this that world though.
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Make PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #20 on: October 01, 2020, 04:30:36 PM »
« Edited: October 01, 2020, 04:44:35 PM by Make PA Blue Again! »

Probably an outlier, but I can buy Greenfield being favored atm.

Post-ACB nomination polls have been terrible for the GOP.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #21 on: October 01, 2020, 04:31:01 PM »

Oh my God. Ernst is really bombing.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #22 on: October 01, 2020, 04:31:47 PM »

Where is MT Treasurer he has been no where to be seen since Trump flubbed the debate. He told us that Ernst is safe due to fact she passed bipartisanship bills. 2 down 1 to go and we must see a MT poll to show him Daines is toast
drag him king
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Figueira
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« Reply #23 on: October 01, 2020, 04:34:58 PM »

This makes me sad because I now feel like that Biden leading poll is an outlier too

Eh, the Senate race is more important anyway.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #24 on: October 01, 2020, 04:39:11 PM »

Obviously an outlier but

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!
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