KS-Civiqs/Daily Kos: Marshall +7
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Author Topic: KS-Civiqs/Daily Kos: Marshall +7  (Read 1089 times)
VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« on: September 30, 2020, 04:06:50 PM »
« edited: September 30, 2020, 04:24:14 PM by Young Latino male Clinton-OíRourke-Fletcher voter for TRUMP »

Marshall (R) 50% (+8)
Bollier (D) 43% (+2)

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_KS_banner_book_2020_09_dw29u7.pdf
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2020, 04:08:19 PM »

September 26-29
677 likely voters
MoE: 4.5%

Someone else 2%
Unsure 5%
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2020, 04:13:54 PM »

This is just what I feared: The consolidation. We don't need Kansas to win the Senate, but we could sure as hell use it.
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Primary the Squad
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2020, 04:17:35 PM »

Yeah, this was inevitable. Kansas isn't a swing state, Kobach was just THAT bad.
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2020, 05:59:21 PM »

I'll want to see more polls before confirming this, but I was always skeptical that this would be a Toss-Up in anything other than a complete Democratic tidal wave.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2020, 06:58:46 PM »

We need more polls in KS, MT, SC, IA and TX, we already know the polls in other states.

Bullock and Cooney and Bollier shouldn't be underestimated like Greenfield
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2020, 07:04:03 PM »

The top numbers make more sense here, Trump being up 10 sounds about right as opposed to the Data 4 Progress poll that had him up 4.

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tmthforu94
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« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2020, 07:07:03 PM »

New Poll: Kansas Senator by Civiqs on 2020-09-29

Summary: D: 43%, R: 50%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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S019
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« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2020, 07:25:12 PM »

Atlas:

Marshall up 4 in own internal: THERE MUST BE CONSOLIDATION, SAFE R, ANYONE WHO SAYS OTHERWISE IS WRONG
Marshall up 7 in poll: THIS CONFIRMS I WAS RIGHT, SAFE R, ANYONE WHO SAYS OTHERWISE IS WRONG

Anyways, I struggle to see the Presidential and Senate races this close, but the hacks can believe what they want I guess
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VAR
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« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2020, 05:35:56 PM »

Found some hard-hitting analysis in this thread. Hereís what I learned  Tongue

1) If the presidential numbers seem accurate, the Senate numbers must be accurate too. Itís impossible for pollsters to oversample Northeast Iowa #populists  Purple heart or undersample reasonable, moderate Trump-Bollier voters.
2) Since both Biden leading by 2% in IA and Trump leading by 10% in KS look right, the Senate numbers make sense too, Ernst and Bollier are DOA  Smiley
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MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
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« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2020, 03:34:28 PM »

If two polls say that Barbara Bollier will perform 10+ points worse than Theresa Greenfield and that there will be less split-ticket voting in KS than IA, then thatís it, no questions asked. Congrats, Senators Marshall and Greenfield.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2020, 03:45:06 PM »

Republicans are dumping another $7M into this race so I think Bollier is a lot closer than 7.
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MR. ANTHONY DEVOLDER
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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2020, 07:53:45 PM »

Based on what I saw in Johnson County over the summer...I think polls might be undersampling the wine moms. It was pretty shocking. Areas that were full of McCain and Brownback signs in 2008 and 2010 are now full of Biden signs.

We'll see what happens.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2020, 09:35:28 AM »

Atlas:

Marshall up 4 in own internal: THERE MUST BE CONSOLIDATION, SAFE R, ANYONE WHO SAYS OTHERWISE IS WRONG
Marshall up 7 in poll: THIS CONFIRMS I WAS RIGHT, SAFE R, ANYONE WHO SAYS OTHERWISE IS WRONG

Anyways, I struggle to see the Presidential and Senate races this close, but the hacks can believe what they want I guess

This is quite something. Even a forum dominated by Dem hacks, who have been insisting that this race was a toss-up or at the very least Lean R for months, there is this caricature that the "Atlas" opinion is that this race is Safe R, which almost nobody believes. This type of mentality is so twisted that you somehow convince yourself you have the minority opinion when it's obvious you don't. I've been almost alone in saying this race is not competitive.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2020, 12:05:17 PM »

Atlas:

Marshall up 4 in own internal: THERE MUST BE CONSOLIDATION, SAFE R, ANYONE WHO SAYS OTHERWISE IS WRONG
Marshall up 7 in poll: THIS CONFIRMS I WAS RIGHT, SAFE R, ANYONE WHO SAYS OTHERWISE IS WRONG

Anyways, I struggle to see the Presidential and Senate races this close, but the hacks can believe what they want I guess

This is quite something. Even a forum dominated by Dem hacks, who have been insisting that this race was a toss-up or at the very least Lean R for months, there is this caricature that the "Atlas" opinion is that this race is Safe R, which almost nobody believes. This type of mentality is so twisted that you somehow convince yourself you have the minority opinion when it's obvious you don't. I've been almost alone in saying this race is not competitive.

Likewise, I was saying for a long time this talk of D KS was overblown even long term, much less right now and it always seemed like the herd mentality on here was to buy into Democrat KS.

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MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
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« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2020, 02:26:03 PM »

This is quite something. Even a forum dominated by Dem hacks, who have been insisting that this race was a toss-up or at the very least Lean R for months, there is this caricature that the "Atlas" opinion is that this race is Safe R, which almost nobody believes. This type of mentality is so twisted that you somehow convince yourself you have the minority opinion when it's obvious you don't. I've been almost alone in saying this race is not competitive.

Laughable. The consensus on this forum was always that this was a race where Republicans were heavily favored in (far more so than in IA, with many unironically arguing this even with Kobach as the R nominee), so I think itís more a case of you creating a caricature of "Atlas" opinion which doesnít reflect actual reality.

If you had been paying more attention, youíd have noticed the barrage of "Kobach was uniquely weak", "Republicans arenít losing a federal race in this state", "Roger Marshall definitely makes this Safe R", "Kansas hasnít elected a Democratic Senator since the 1930s", "even Kobach [and Goebbels!] wouldnít lose a Senate race", "the country is way too polarized for this to be competitive", "itís a presidential year with Trump at the top of the ticket", etc. "arguments" directed at anyone who argued that Bollier might actually have a chance in this race. This forum (including most Democratic "hacks" with the exception of wbrocks and maybe one or two red avatars) has always been extremely pessimistic about most "red" state Senate races (KS, MT, TX, GA-R, GA-S, AL, etc.), certainly far more so than in 2017/2018, when it was way too overconfident about races like IN and MO.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2020, 04:13:38 PM »

I am still confused why Indy Rep has John James winning and he wants us to listen to his analysis, James lost to Debbie Stabenow, he has 0 percent of winning, AA aren't fooled by James,.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #17 on: October 03, 2020, 06:22:44 PM »

In for Marshall's authoritarian NUT map.
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