NE02-NYT/Siena: Biden +7

[Skye]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1310590763093430275

Douglas County:
Biden 50
Trump 40

Sarpy County:
Trump 47
Biden 37

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/ne020920-crosstabs/38a068b5366d4c08/full.pdf

[Dr. Arch]

Not bad!

[JRP1994]

Omaha Joe!

[Buzz]

Not surprising although a lot of undecideds

[VAR]

Bacon leads by 2%.

Trump approval: 45/52 (-7)

Favorables:
Trump: 45/53 (-8)
Biden: 51/44 (+7)

[Horus]

Bacon leads by 2%.

Eastman is a terrible candidate

[republican1993]

i'm not too surprised NY times has been very d-friendly - biden under 50 is fine with me.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If NEB 2 is gone, the election is over, sorry to say that, Trump cannot win without NEB2, ME2, WI, and AZ, which are the tipping points of the election, as PA is assured to go D

[Skye]

It's Biden +7, my bad! I really need a nap.

[Mr.Phips]

Bacon leads by 2%.

Eastman is a terrible candidate

Ashford wasn’t much better.  He barely outran Hillary in 2016 as an incumbent congressman.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean D.

NE-2 and ME-2 could, in a tightening race, afford Biden to lose PA if he carries both districts and AZ to get to 270/71. Not that I believe this will happen, but it's possible by doing the math and keeping in mind this one isn't less likely to flip than PA.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 25-27
420 likely voters
MoE: 5.3%

Jorgensen 4%
Not voting 1%
Someone else 0%

[bilaps]

Big poll for Biden.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Bacon leads by 2%.

Eastman is a terrible candidate

Ashford wasn’t much better.  He barely outran Hillary in 2016 as an incumbent congressman.

I'd rather have someone running +1 or +2 ahead of the presidential candidate than -9 behind them.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Bacon leads by 2%.

Eastman is a terrible candidate

She appears to have weaknesses of her own but it doesn't help that Ashford has been enabling Bacon's moderate hero schtick, showing up at the local VA healthcare centre event along with him and previous Congressman last month.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Bacon leads by 2%.

Eastman is a terrible candidate

Ashford wasn’t much better.  He barely outran Hillary in 2016 as an incumbent congressman.

I'd rather have someone running +1 or +2 ahead of the presidential candidate than -9 behind them.

Most Democratic challengers appear to be running a few points behind Biden in Congress and that is at least somewhat attributable to them having lower name ID than incumbent Representatives. That is an issue which should mostly disappear on election day because of the way undecided voters tend to break.

If this were a more high-profile Senate or gubernatorial race, this sort of discrepancy between the House and presidential margins would be a lot more concerning.

[libertpaulian]

Joemaha!

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1310594015759343623

[indietraveler]

Likely D

Quote me later.

[Lief 🗽]

The most interesting thing about this poll is that it’s the exact same result as all those Democratic internals of this district.

Also I’d love a NE-01 poll.

[Xing]

Calling it now, NE-02 will vote right of every other state Trump won, even MI. It might even vote left of MN or NH.

[redjohn]

Ohhhhhhh yes. Great trends for Biden in the midwest. The swing among college-educated whites is going to be legendary.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Calling it now, NE-02 will vote right of every other state Trump won, even MI. It might even vote left of MN or NH.

[xavier110]

I said before - this district will likely come close to mirroring (or slightly exceeding) Biden's final national margin. I think he'll have enough padding too to drag Eastman over

[Skye]

Calling it now, NE-02 will vote right of every other state Trump won, even MI. It might even vote left of MN or NH.

I don't understand what's happening in this post.