NE02-NYT/Siena: Biden +7
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  NE02-NYT/Siena: Biden +7
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Author Topic: NE02-NYT/Siena: Biden +7  (Read 1083 times)
Skye
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« on: September 28, 2020, 09:46:47 AM »
« edited: September 28, 2020, 09:57:42 AM by Skye »



Douglas County:
Biden 50
Trump 40

Sarpy County:
Trump 47
Biden 37

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/ne020920-crosstabs/38a068b5366d4c08/full.pdf

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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2020, 09:47:21 AM »

Not bad!
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JRP1994
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« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2020, 09:48:15 AM »

Omaha Joe!
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Buzz
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« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2020, 09:48:45 AM »

Not surprising although a lot of undecideds
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VAR
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« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2020, 09:49:14 AM »

Bacon leads by 2%.

Trump approval: 45/52 (-7)

Favorables:
Trump: 45/53 (-8)
Biden: 51/44 (+7)
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Horus
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« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2020, 09:49:36 AM »


Eastman is a terrible candidate
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republican1993
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« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2020, 09:52:10 AM »

i'm not too surprised NY times has been very d-friendly - biden under 50 is fine with me.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: September 28, 2020, 09:54:27 AM »

If NEB 2 is gone, the election is over, sorry to say that, Trump cannot win without NEB2, ME2, WI, and AZ, which are the tipping points of the election, as PA is assured to go D
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Skye
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« Reply #8 on: September 28, 2020, 09:55:03 AM »

It's Biden +7, my bad! I really need a nap.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2020, 09:57:06 AM »


Ashford wasnít much better.  He barely outran Hillary in 2016 as an incumbent congressman.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2020, 09:57:10 AM »

Lean D.

NE-2 and ME-2 could, in a tightening race, afford Biden to lose PA if he carries both districts and AZ to get to 270/71. Not that I believe this will happen, but it's possible by doing the math and keeping in mind this one isn't less likely to flip than PA.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2020, 09:57:41 AM »

September 25-27
420 likely voters
MoE: 5.3%

Jorgensen 4%
Not voting 1%
Someone else 0%
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bilaps
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« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2020, 10:03:54 AM »

Big poll for Biden.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2020, 10:04:15 AM »


Ashford wasnít much better.  He barely outran Hillary in 2016 as an incumbent congressman.

I'd rather have someone running +1 or +2 ahead of the presidential candidate than -9 behind them.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2020, 10:06:51 AM »


She appears to have weaknesses of her own but it doesn't help that Ashford has been enabling Bacon's moderate hero schtick, showing up at the local VA healthcare centre event along with him and previous Congressman last month.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2020, 10:09:28 AM »


Ashford wasnít much better.  He barely outran Hillary in 2016 as an incumbent congressman.

I'd rather have someone running +1 or +2 ahead of the presidential candidate than -9 behind them.

Most Democratic challengers appear to be running a few points behind Biden in Congress and that is at least somewhat attributable to them having lower name ID than incumbent Representatives. That is an issue which should mostly disappear on election day because of the way undecided voters tend to break.

If this were a more high-profile Senate or gubernatorial race, this sort of discrepancy between the House and presidential margins would be a lot more concerning.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2020, 10:09:29 AM »

Joemaha!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #17 on: September 28, 2020, 10:21:34 AM »


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indietraveler
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« Reply #18 on: September 28, 2020, 10:50:30 AM »

Likely D

Quote me later.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #19 on: September 28, 2020, 11:28:43 AM »

The most interesting thing about this poll is that itís the exact same result as all those Democratic internals of this district.

Also Iíd love a NE-01 poll.
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Xing
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« Reply #20 on: September 28, 2020, 11:34:52 AM »

Calling it now, NE-02 will vote right of every other state Trump won, even MI. It might even vote left of MN or NH.
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redjohn
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« Reply #21 on: September 28, 2020, 11:35:38 AM »

Ohhhhhhh yes. Great trends for Biden in the midwest. The swing among college-educated whites is going to be legendary.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #22 on: September 28, 2020, 11:36:14 AM »

Calling it now, NE-02 will vote right of every other state Trump won, even MI. It might even vote left of MN or NH.

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What can be, unburdened by what has been
xavier110
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« Reply #23 on: September 28, 2020, 11:38:52 AM »

I said before - this district will likely come close to mirroring (or slightly exceeding) Biden's final national margin. I think he'll have enough padding too to drag Eastman over
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Skye
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« Reply #24 on: September 28, 2020, 11:46:00 AM »

Calling it now, NE-02 will vote right of every other state Trump won, even MI. It might even vote left of MN or NH.

I don't understand what's happening in this post.
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