How does #taxgate affect the race?

[Hope For A New Era]

the 441/444 map

The what?

413 map: 2012 plus NC/GA/AZ/TX/NE02
425 map: 413 plus AK/SC
441 map: 425 plus MO/KS
444: 441 plus MT

there is no missouri without indiana

[Roll Roons]

the 441/444 map

The what?

413 map: 2012 plus NC/GA/AZ/TX/NE02
425 map: 413 plus AK/SC
441 map: 425 plus MO/KS
444: 441 plus MT

I think MT would flip with AK and maybe before SC. But if the national environment gets to that level, we'd be in pretty much uncharted territory.

[Stuart98]

the 441/444 map

The what?

413 map: 2012 plus NC/GA/AZ/TX/NE02
425 map: 413 plus AK/SC
441 map: 425 plus MO/KS
444: 441 plus MT

there is no missouri without indiana

There's been a big gap between them in the polls for some reason, MO tends to be about Trump +7 while IN tends to be more like Trump +14.

[Bootes Void]

It may not have much effect however Biden should talk about repealing the 2017 tax cuts

[Heebie Jeebie]

https://twitter.com/OrganizingPow3r/status/1310396256129290241

[dunceDude]

It's bad and it will have an impact. Who knows how much--but this is clearly getting big.

[mileslunn]

Very little.  Trump is largely down to his core who would as he once said vote for him even if he walked down Fifth avenue and shot someone.  More it will make it tougher to win back some who supported earlier but have drifted away thus cement the states he has lost, but not cost him any more. 

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Very little.  Trump is largely down to his core who would as he once said vote for him even if he walked down Fifth avenue and shot someone.  More it will make it tougher to win back some who supported earlier but have drifted away thus cement the states he has lost, but not cost him any more.  

Again, that it makes him tougher to win back former supporters & helps solidifyes Bidens numbers when he's already leading by 7-10% & leading in most swing states doesn't sound like "very little impact" to me

[Hope For A New Era]

https://twitter.com/OrganizingPow3r/status/1310396256129290241

Biden needs his own version of this

[Devils30]

Places like Iowa and Ohio are where this could hurt Trump most, it might not move the needle much with Texas conservative leaning indies.

[Tartarus Sauce]

The fact that most people here would be actively surprised if this had a noticeable impact on the election underscores just how surreal our current political climate is. 

[Real Texan Politics]

Probably little to none. I imagine there's more serious issues than how much taxes he pays. Plus all the "eat the rich" people are supporting Biden anyways so it's not like it makes much of a difference.

[exopolitician]

https://twitter.com/grantstern/status/1310428488202162176?s=19

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know Trump has had business dealings with the Russians, every R Prez have, even Eisenhower, whom had Hoover work with the Russians during WWII and his administration. It became the Kremlin after the Cuban missle crisis and our arch nemesis and they were connected with Iran and Contra during Iran and Iraq war, Russians were allies with Iran, that came during Reagan administration

But, D's have business dealings with Ukraine and Hunter Biden

[wimp]

zero effect. People who already hate Trump will go on about it like all the other scandals over the years; people who already like Trump will call it "fake news" and ignore it.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The fact that most people here would be actively surprised if this had a noticeable impact on the election underscores just how surreal our current political climate is.  

It's also surreal how any issue that hurts Trump leads to a near-unanimous "no effect" verdict but any new issue that isn't COVID, such as the Floyd/Kenosha protests or the death of RGB, leads to vocal cries of "This will undoubtedly help Trump"

[BlueSwan]

It will do nothing at all.

Basically, at this point, no scandal will hurt Trump.

[Niemeyerite]

I don't see how Trump convinces 100% of the undecideds to vote for him and manages to win over 2-3% of Uncle Joe voters after this. And that's what he needs in order to get reelected.

So, IMO, this affects the race in a way that makes a Trump comeback almost impossible.

[Alcibiades]

I think this does have an effect, particularly on Obama-Trump voters. It likely tips Ohio and Iowa towards Biden. Anyhow, it basically ensures a Trump defeat; there’s no way he’s improving by 5 or so points from here.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Biden can and should definitely weave this into his attacks on the 2017 tax plan, which is still an incredibly unpopular law and probably the first tax cut ever in history to be unpopular

[Chips]

I can imagine it would really tick off immigrants and their families. You know, The very people he's lashed out in the past for not paying taxes. It will be a hinderance to him in NV and AZ for sure.

[Chips]

Also, A good debate performance is basically the only way Trump has a serious chance to come back. If he screws up in the debates (which is more likely than not) it's probably over.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Popehat/status/1310339485993902080

People need to stop framing this about his supporters. This election will not be won on the back of just his die-hard supporters.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Popehat/status/1310339485993902080

People need to stop framing this about his supporters. This election will not be won on the back of just his die-hard supporters.

Undecided voters are not engaged enough to hear about this issue.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, there are probably two kinds of voters:

- People who were already aware that Donald Trump is probably the kind of person who would commit tax evasion and who didn't plan on voting for him in the first place because of this already existing view of him.

- People who are aware that Donald Trump is the kind of person who would commit tax evasion and who don't care, because they think that everybody else in the "Washington swamp" is just as bad and at the very least Trump puts anti-abortionists on the Supreme Court.

So, maybe it does help solidify the status quo... that is a +8 to +10 Biden lead.