How does #taxgate affect the race?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It probably won't affect the race in a big way, but I can see it solidifying Biden's lead.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It probably won't affect the race in a big way, but I can see it solidifying Biden's lead.

I'd argue Biden's lead solidifying means it affected the race in a big way.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It probably won't affect the race in a big way, but I can see it solidifying Biden's lead.

I'd argue Biden's lead solidifying means it affected the race in a big way

Well... yeah, good point.

[wbrocks67]

Not much of a change, but it hurts Trump bc it s yet another negative news cycle for him, and he really can't afford that with 36 days to go.

[WD]

Biden's lead has been solidified for months now, and any serious Trump "comeback" or tightening of the race was never in the cards because virtually all voters have already made up their minds and both parties' bases are energized. It won’t change anything.

Maybe Trump could comeback if Senator Daines makes a bipartisan speech in favor of his candidacy.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

How are we to define "affect the race"?

Bidens/Trumps numbers increasing, decreasing or solidifying?
Bidens/Trumps margins increasing, decreasing or solidifying?
Biden/Trump being put on offense/defense with a month before Election Day?


Because to me, for a story that's sure to gain further legs in the coming weeks & debates + Trump being put yet again in defensive mode for something that hasn't been a top campaign issue in 4 years + The polling landscape of Biden's lead in the 7-10 range nationally & leading in a majority of swing states + Early voting underway in a number of said-swing states + Election Day occurring in FIVE WEEKS.....

Even something like "no change" sounds like a negative impact on Trump's current predicament. If he wants any shot of a comeback, he just can't be wasting campaign time on a story like this hanging over his campaign

[Admiral Stockdale]

It just enforces the idea that he knows the system and knows how to use it to his benefit. HE told us what he was and it is of no surprise to no one.

Being the case this doesn't change a thing.

I think the difference is before there were no dollars associated with it... now there are.  It's one thing to overvalue a charitable deduction on a junker car...

[Mr. Smith]

It doesn't.

It's just too early, the same way Access Hollywood was released too early.

[Arkansas Yankee]

So Trump paid his taxes.  Then took advantage of changes in the law made by Obama.  Where is there a crime here?  Where is the wrong here!

[Non Swing Voter]

I agree with everyone that this won't change the dynamics much but remember he's behind right now.  Last time all the last minute stories broke his way and were bad for Hillary (see Comey).  He has no margin for error.

Also, Trump has a debate in 2 days.  This is going to make him go crazy and he'll probably screw up the first debate, which is really the only time that the vast majority of the electorate will be paying attention.  Perfect timing for The NY Times to drop this now.  

[jbtornado]

Its not too early people are literally voting now and in the next few weeks

It doesn't.

It's just too early, the same way Access Hollywood was released too early.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

Maybe a point or two in the polls? More than anything, we consider this as insurance to strengthen the case should anything come to hurt Biden at the debates or in the news.

[Dr. Arch]

Biden's lead has been solidified for months now, and any serious Trump "comeback" or tightening of the race was never in the cards because virtually all voters have already made up their minds and both parties' bases are energized. It won’t change anything.

Maybe Trump could comeback if Senator Daines makes a bipartisan speech in favor of his candidacy.

You might be on to something.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It probably won’t change things % wises but it does effect the race in that it’s another news cycle Trump will be playing defense on when the clock is winding down fast. Need I remind you all that going back to 2016 the first debate the top stories were EMAILS and Hillary fainting at the 9/11 memorial on top of that the polling gap being closed. Fast forward today and Trump is down 7-8 points, Biden has had little to any negative press heading in, and Trump and his team are panicking because they just realized they made the same mistake online leftist made and lowered the bar so low for Biden that he has to only show up and speak in complete sentences to win. So long story short this might not move numbers but this story was the last thing he needed right now

[PSOL]

It adds in the death from thousands upon thousands of cuts currently swarming the Trump Campaign.

[UncleSam]

I actually think this will have a moderate impact short-term, and a small but measurable impact come election day.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Lean Biden < Lean Biden

Biden gains maybe one point and it's irrelevant. Trump fumbled the biggest American crisis in over a decade. He's screwed on the fundamentals anyway.

[Hope For A New Era]

<1% drop in the polls for Trump, for like a week until people forget.

Things that directly impact a person's life is a different matter

also see: the government shutdown in January 2019 caused a small dip in approvals

[Stuart98]

The bottom's falling out from under Trump. This doesn't even need to hurt Trump much directly (though it will), it makes it almost impossible for him to mount a comeback. Barring any seriously bad October surprises surprises Biden's winning 330 EVs minimum and if the 441/444 map wasn't in the cards before it definitely is now.

[ProudModerate2]

I wouldn't doubt if we see a return of a Biden (avg.) lead in the +9 ish range, over the next 2/3 weeks.
So an additional +2 to Biden (currently in the +7 ish range).

[Heebie Jeebie]

https://twitter.com/Popehat/status/1310339485993902080

[Hope For A New Era]

the 441/444 map

The what?

[Roll Roons]

the 441/444 map

The what?

Presumably something like this: https://www.270towin.com/maps/gwEy9

[KaiserDave]

It won't swing any large population of voters, but it is not what Trump needs right now. It makes it much harder for him to dig out of the whole.

[Stuart98]

the 441/444 map

The what?

413 map: 2012 plus NC/GA/AZ/TX/NE02
425 map: 413 plus AK/SC
441 map: 425 plus MO/KS
444: 441 plus MT