NYTimes/Siena - Biden+8

[n1240]

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/us0920-crosstabs/e9c96a16d8951e8c/full.pdf

Biden 49
Trump 41
Jorgensen 2
Hawkins 1

9/22-24, 950 LV

[Pericles]

Trump approval is 46%-50% in this poll. Interestingly, Trump wins non-college educated whites by 24% in this poll (won by 39% in 2016, according to 2016 exit polls), while Biden wins college-educated whites by 16% (Trump +4%, according to 2016 exit polls). Only 41% want the Senate to confirm Trump's nominee now, 56% want the election winner to decide (only 33% want abortion to be illegal either most of the time or always, and only 20% oppose Roe v Wade). Not that Senate Republicans care.

[VAR]

Sep 22-24, 950 LV, MoE: 3.5%

Trump approval: 46/50 (-4)

Favorabilities:
Trump 44/53 (-9)
Biden 52/44 (+8)
Harris 48/41 (+7)
Pence 44/48 (-4)
BLM 54/39 (+15)
McConnell 30/50 (-20)

47% of voters say the Senate should act on the nomination, 48% say no.

Whites: Trump 49-42 (+7)
African-Americans: Biden 81-7 (+74)
Hispanics: Biden 59-31 (+28)
Other: Biden 58-26 (+32)

Midwest: Biden 50-38 (+12)
Northeast: Biden 53-34 (+19)
South: Trump 49-43 (+6)
West: Biden 52-38 (+14)

Trump’s really underperforming his JA among Blacks (12%) and Hispanics (42%).

[WD]

And this is a R+1 sample? Yikes

[n1240]

And this is a R+1 sample? Yikes

Yeah, Biden+21 among independents, although I don't ever agree with unskewing in either direction of course, could just be a sample with more dem leaning independents compared to hard dem IDs than usual.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Trump's approval was at 46% then he wouldn't be losing by high single digits.

[Horus]

Trump's approval is pretty good here, especially on the economy (54-42). Worrying sign for Biden.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

And this is a R+1 sample? Yikes

Call me complacent or overconfident, but things like this are why I'm on board the "Biden will outperform the polls" wagon & why I'm more bullish on Biden's chances in GA/TX

[Annatar]

One thing I find interesting is how much worse Trump is doing with independent voters than the GOP candidate did in 2008 despite a collapsing economy and George Bush at 27% approval rating, in the exit polls the Republican candidate in 2008 lost independent voters by 8%, Trump in the ABC poll was down by 22% with them and in this poll is down 21%.

[ibagli]

Trump approval on the economy:
Approve 54%, Disapprove 42%

How responsible do you think Donald Trump is for the recession?
Not at all+not very responsible 43%, Mainly+somewhat responsible 55%

~10% of people think Trump caused a recession and they approve of that?

[Rand]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[roxas11]

Trump's approval is pretty good here, especially on the economy (54-42). Worrying sign for Biden.

Most voters trusted Romney over Obama on the economy during the 2012 election......

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Someone else 0%
Will not vote 0%
Undecided/refused 7%

MoE: 3.5%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

More trouble for Trump😆😆

[Skye]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

I always find it interesting that this particular gloat was made in response to a Biden +6 poll.

[Niemeyerite]

This is beautiful. 41% supporting Trump with one month and one week to go.

[SnowLabrador]

Regardless of the topline numbers, the fact that a majority think Trump is good for the economy shows that the Democrats have committed political malpractice by allowing this perception to continue. The economy is worse than it was in 2008.

[wbrocks67]

Topline number makes total sense, but that job approval doesn't. Also, I really don't understand why nearly every NYT/Siena poll now has an R sample ID lead. Regardless of whether it affects the outcome, I don't understand why even in states where it most definitely won't be, they are still finding it.

[wbrocks67]

Regardless of the topline numbers, the fact that a majority think Trump is good for the economy shows that the Democrats have committed political malpractice by allowing this perception to continue. The economy is worse than it was in 2008.

There's nothing they can do. 55% literally believe Trumps actions led to the downturn this year and he still has a good approval. That's on voters stupidity then.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Nothing is gonna stop Biden from winning as we are at same unemployment rate as in 2008, at 8percent

[tagimaucia]

Nate Cohn says that he’s been picking up that a lot of Trumpy former “independents” now just identify as Rs so independents are a more left leaning group at the moment than they sometimes have been.  

Also, I would think that a lot of young people entering the electorate who are very left leaning and probably vote mostly for democrats in practice, are also way less partisan in their identification than older liberals and probably identify as independents in large margins.  If both these things are true, maybe we’ll see a shrinking advantage in partisan ID for Ds in coming national elections, even in ones where they might do quite well.

[SnowLabrador]

Regardless of the topline numbers, the fact that a majority think Trump is good for the economy shows that the Democrats have committed political malpractice by allowing this perception to continue. The economy is worse than it was in 2008.

There's nothing they can do. 55% literally believe Trumps actions led to the downturn this year and he still has a good approval. That's on voters stupidity then.

Then it's on the Democrats to hammer it home.

[Brittain33]

Trump's approval is pretty good here, especially on the economy (54-42). Worrying sign for Biden.

How can it be a worrying sign for Biden when he’s literally winning this poll by 8 points?

[tjstarling]

Why do these Siena polls have high undecideds, especially in relation to approvals and favorability numbers? Their state polls are similar. Was this the case with their 2018 polling also? I can’t remember for certain.

Thank God they got rid of that anxiety inducing live calling tracker thing they did.

[wbrocks67]

Regardless of the topline numbers, the fact that a majority think Trump is good for the economy shows that the Democrats have committed political malpractice by allowing this perception to continue. The economy is worse than it was in 2008.

There's nothing they can do. 55% literally believe Trumps actions led to the downturn this year and he still has a good approval. That's on voters stupidity then.

Then it's on the Democrats to hammer it home.

It has been hammered home though. That Trump decimated the economy with his terrible virus response and it won't get better until we contain the virus. There's not much else they can do at this point. Saying it over and over again for whatever reason still isn't making people disapprove of him on the economy. It makes no sense but it is what it is at this point.