Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +3 in PA, +5 in WI
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 25, 2024, 01:05:08 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +3 in PA, +5 in WI
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +3 in PA, +5 in WI  (Read 2632 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,753
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 21, 2020, 03:34:24 PM »
« edited: September 21, 2020, 03:41:25 PM by VARepublican »

Sep 11-16

PA (611 LV, MoE: 5%)
Biden 49%
Trump 46%

WI (609 LV, MoE: 5%)
Biden 48%
Trump 43%

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN26C31N
Logged
Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,719


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2020, 03:35:42 PM »

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin continue to behave exactly the opposite of how everyone thought they would.
Logged
libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,611
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2020, 03:38:29 PM »

Yet another poll showing PA to be tighter than WI or MI.
Logged
republican1993
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 388
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2020, 03:40:42 PM »

I'm seeing + 5 wisconsin on the reuters website (48-43) i'd rather have pennsylvania close which is a bigger prize - with PA, FLORIDA, NC thats pretty much 270 there and pick something else off.
Logged
redjohn
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,698


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -4.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2020, 03:41:51 PM »

I'm not surprised that PA is showing to be more competitive than WI or MI. Trump surged in raw votes in PA, far out-performing Romney. WI and MI only turned red because of the high third-party support and Democratic voters who were dissatisfied with HRC/thought she didn't need their vote. PA was always going to be more difficult to flip.
Logged
Rand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,220
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2020, 03:42:21 PM »

RIP TRUMP
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,003


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2020, 03:42:47 PM »

MI/NC tomorrow, FL/AZ Wednesday.
Logged
Darthpi Ė Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2020, 03:43:02 PM »

Within reasonable range of everything we've been seeing lately. Both are still Lean Biden.
Logged
Itís so Joever
Forumlurker161
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,039


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2020, 03:43:52 PM »

Neither look good. I would be very concerned.
Logged
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2020, 03:44:48 PM »

Neither look good. I would be very concerned.

How much do you want Biden to be leading by? 10? Would you say that it doesn't look good for Trump if he were leading in PA and WI by 3 and 5 respectively?
Logged
Senator Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,730
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2020, 03:46:42 PM »

I'm not surprised that PA is showing to be more competitive than WI or MI. Trump surged in raw votes in PA, far out-performing Romney. WI and MI only turned red because of the high third-party support and Democratic voters who were dissatisfied with HRC/thought she didn't need their vote. PA was always going to be more difficult to flip.

Do you think that Trump will be able to cut into the early mail in vote enough to come back and win? That is the true question.
Logged
compucomp
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,583


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 21, 2020, 03:58:47 PM »

Neither look good. I would be very concerned.

How much do you want Biden to be leading by? 10? Would you say that it doesn't look good for Trump if he were leading in PA and WI by 3 and 5 respectively?

If one thinks polls are still off in the same way as in 2016, then we have to subtract 5 points off Biden's number in WI/MI/PA and these are bad results (see Nate Cohn's page: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden).

However, if one believes that the pollsters have fixed the 2016 bias by weighting by education and thus these results are generally unbiased, then they're pretty good for Biden, although PA is still within margin of error.
Logged
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2020, 04:01:55 PM »

Neither look good. I would be very concerned.

How much do you want Biden to be leading by? 10? Would you say that it doesn't look good for Trump if he were leading in PA and WI by 3 and 5 respectively?

If one thinks polls are still off in the same way as in 2016, then we have to subtract 5 points off Biden's number in WI/MI/PA and these are bad results (see Nate Cohn's page: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden).

However, if one believes that the pollsters have fixed the 2016 bias by weighting by education and thus these results are generally unbiased, then they're pretty good for Biden, although PA is still within margin of error.

Well, that's exactly the thing; polls have amended their methodologies since 2016, and no poll is taken seriously anymore unless they weigh for education.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,617
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 21, 2020, 04:03:07 PM »

Neither look good. I would be very concerned.

The Wisconsin poll is pretty good. Pennsylvania, not so much.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,716
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 21, 2020, 04:03:32 PM »

Thats the ballgame, Trump needed either PA or WI in order to win and he wont win them
Logged
Splash
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,045
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 21, 2020, 04:04:32 PM »

Throw them in the average.
Logged
Bootes Void
iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,677
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 21, 2020, 04:10:27 PM »

Are there crosstabs for these?
Logged
SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,971
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 21, 2020, 04:12:28 PM »

Pennsylvania's making me nervous, very nervous. I don't want to rely on Wisconsin either, due to the immense amount of voter suppression there.
Logged
GeneralMacArthur
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,039
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 21, 2020, 04:34:59 PM »

Are these the first state polls Reuters/Ipsos have done?  I can only find national polls up to this point.

Their last few national polls have been:
9/15-17:  51-42
9/3-8:  52-40
9/1-2:  42-38
8/31-9/1:  47-40
8/19-25:  47-40

kinda a bizarre series of polls.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,710


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 21, 2020, 04:40:54 PM »

Pennsylvania's making me nervous, very nervous. I don't want to rely on Wisconsin either, due to the immense amount of voter suppression there.

The average is Biden +4.5. For every Biden +2/3 poll we get, then we get another Civiqs or Q-pac or Marist poll that has him up 7-9.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,768
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2020, 04:50:21 PM »

Not great, not awful.
Logged
jd7171
Rookie
**
Posts: 112
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 21, 2020, 04:53:40 PM »

I think the key to PA is the Western part of the state. Trump is going to lose ground in the eastern suburbs. If Trump matches his total out here then he can keep it close. But if he loses ground then you get a Biden win of about 6-8 points. From what I can tell here on the ground is that he has lost some ground how much I don't know.  
Logged
GeneralMacArthur
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,039
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 21, 2020, 04:54:52 PM »

I think the key to PA is the Western part of the state. Trump is going to lose ground in the eastern suburbs. If Trump matches his total out here then he can keep it close. But if he loses ground then you get a Biden win of about 6-8 points. From what I can tell here on the ground is that he has lost some ground how much I don't know.  

What makes you say he's losing ground in the west?

Have you noticed any positive signs for Biden in that part of the state?
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,710


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: September 21, 2020, 04:55:55 PM »

I think the key to PA is the Western part of the state. Trump is going to lose ground in the eastern suburbs. If Trump matches his total out here then he can keep it close. But if he loses ground then you get a Biden win of about 6-8 points. From what I can tell here on the ground is that he has lost some ground how much I don't know.  

What makes you say he's losing ground in the west?

Have you noticed any positive signs for Biden in that part of the state?

Biden will do considerably better in the Pittsburgh suburbs and in Erie than HRC did. Same with Lackawanna in the Northeast.
Logged
Itís so Joever
Forumlurker161
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,039


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: September 21, 2020, 04:56:21 PM »

I think the key to PA is the Western part of the state. Trump is going to lose ground in the eastern suburbs. If Trump matches his total out here then he can keep it close. But if he loses ground then you get a Biden win of about 6-8 points. From what I can tell here on the ground is that he has lost some ground how much I don't know.  
Hey welcome to the forum, and thanks for sharing!
Always good to get some perspective from the locals.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.053 seconds with 13 queries.