Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +3 in PA, +5 in WI

[VAR]

Sep 11-16

PA (611 LV, MoE: 5%)
Biden 49%
Trump 46%

WI (609 LV, MoE: 5%)
Biden 48%
Trump 43%

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN26C31N

[EastOfEden]

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin continue to behave exactly the opposite of how everyone thought they would.

[libertpaulian]

Yet another poll showing PA to be tighter than WI or MI.

[republican1993]

I'm seeing + 5 wisconsin on the reuters website (48-43) i'd rather have pennsylvania close which is a bigger prize - with PA, FLORIDA, NC thats pretty much 270 there and pick something else off.

[redjohn]

I'm not surprised that PA is showing to be more competitive than WI or MI. Trump surged in raw votes in PA, far out-performing Romney. WI and MI only turned red because of the high third-party support and Democratic voters who were dissatisfied with HRC/thought she didn't need their vote. PA was always going to be more difficult to flip.

[Rand]

RIP TRUMP

[GeorgiaModerate]

MI/NC tomorrow, FL/AZ Wednesday.

[Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy]

Within reasonable range of everything we've been seeing lately. Both are still Lean Biden.

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

Neither look good. I would be very concerned.

[Dr. Arch]

Neither look good. I would be very concerned.

How much do you want Biden to be leading by? 10? Would you say that it doesn't look good for Trump if he were leading in PA and WI by 3 and 5 respectively?

[CivicParticipant]

I'm not surprised that PA is showing to be more competitive than WI or MI. Trump surged in raw votes in PA, far out-performing Romney. WI and MI only turned red because of the high third-party support and Democratic voters who were dissatisfied with HRC/thought she didn't need their vote. PA was always going to be more difficult to flip.

Do you think that Trump will be able to cut into the early mail in vote enough to come back and win? That is the true question.

[compucomp]

Neither look good. I would be very concerned.

How much do you want Biden to be leading by? 10? Would you say that it doesn't look good for Trump if he were leading in PA and WI by 3 and 5 respectively?

If one thinks polls are still off in the same way as in 2016, then we have to subtract 5 points off Biden's number in WI/MI/PA and these are bad results (see Nate Cohn's page: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden).

However, if one believes that the pollsters have fixed the 2016 bias by weighting by education and thus these results are generally unbiased, then they're pretty good for Biden, although PA is still within margin of error.

[Dr. Arch]

Neither look good. I would be very concerned.

How much do you want Biden to be leading by? 10? Would you say that it doesn't look good for Trump if he were leading in PA and WI by 3 and 5 respectively?

If one thinks polls are still off in the same way as in 2016, then we have to subtract 5 points off Biden's number in WI/MI/PA and these are bad results (see Nate Cohn's page: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden).

However, if one believes that the pollsters have fixed the 2016 bias by weighting by education and thus these results are generally unbiased, then they're pretty good for Biden, although PA is still within margin of error.

Well, that's exactly the thing; polls have amended their methodologies since 2016, and no poll is taken seriously anymore unless they weigh for education.

[Eraserhead]

Neither look good. I would be very concerned.

The Wisconsin poll is pretty good. Pennsylvania, not so much.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Thats the ballgame, Trump needed either PA or WI in order to win and he wont win them

[Splash]

Throw them in the average.

[Bootes Void]

Are there crosstabs for these?

[SnowLabrador]

Pennsylvania's making me nervous, very nervous. I don't want to rely on Wisconsin either, due to the immense amount of voter suppression there.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Are these the first state polls Reuters/Ipsos have done?  I can only find national polls up to this point.

Their last few national polls have been:
9/15-17:  51-42
9/3-8:  52-40
9/1-2:  42-38
8/31-9/1:  47-40
8/19-25:  47-40

kinda a bizarre series of polls.

[wbrocks67]

Pennsylvania's making me nervous, very nervous. I don't want to rely on Wisconsin either, due to the immense amount of voter suppression there.

The average is Biden +4.5. For every Biden +2/3 poll we get, then we get another Civiqs or Q-pac or Marist poll that has him up 7-9.

[Skill and Chance]

Not great, not awful.

[jd7171]

I think the key to PA is the Western part of the state. Trump is going to lose ground in the eastern suburbs. If Trump matches his total out here then he can keep it close. But if he loses ground then you get a Biden win of about 6-8 points. From what I can tell here on the ground is that he has lost some ground how much I don't know.  

[GeneralMacArthur]

I think the key to PA is the Western part of the state. Trump is going to lose ground in the eastern suburbs. If Trump matches his total out here then he can keep it close. But if he loses ground then you get a Biden win of about 6-8 points. From what I can tell here on the ground is that he has lost some ground how much I don't know.  

What makes you say he's losing ground in the west?

Have you noticed any positive signs for Biden in that part of the state?

[wbrocks67]

I think the key to PA is the Western part of the state. Trump is going to lose ground in the eastern suburbs. If Trump matches his total out here then he can keep it close. But if he loses ground then you get a Biden win of about 6-8 points. From what I can tell here on the ground is that he has lost some ground how much I don't know.  

What makes you say he's losing ground in the west?

Have you noticed any positive signs for Biden in that part of the state?

Biden will do considerably better in the Pittsburgh suburbs and in Erie than HRC did. Same with Lackawanna in the Northeast.

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

I think the key to PA is the Western part of the state. Trump is going to lose ground in the eastern suburbs. If Trump matches his total out here then he can keep it close. But if he loses ground then you get a Biden win of about 6-8 points. From what I can tell here on the ground is that he has lost some ground how much I don't know.  

Hey welcome to the forum, and thanks for sharing!
Always good to get some perspective from the locals.