The fight to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg megathread

[Mr. Matt]

https://twitter.com/NRSC/status/1309962935356325891

All Cop're Bastards

[afleitch]

There is part of me that wonders what sort of massive 'womam/transman' drain there will be if Roe goes; people moving from states where it's suddenly El Salvador to states where there's no change.

And what they will be able to do about it.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://theintercept.com/2020/09/24/memo-laying-out-delay-tactics-circulates-among-senate-democrats/

A memo circulating on Capitol Hill, put together by several people with knowledge of congressional procedure and obtained by The Intercept, lays out some of the options that could be available to Schumer even in the face of a determined Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Senators looking to obstruct in the Senate have a dizzying array of opportunities, but a majority leader with 50 votes, plus a tie-breaking vice president, also has an extraordinary amount of power in the upper chamber.

They are going to try to delay the vote until after the election. Does any of this has a chance of working?

[pppolitics]

ACB is going to be confirmed literally a week before the election. Beating Trump is one thing, but if Democrats don't take the Senate, nuke the filibuster, and expand the Court, then get used to living in a theocracy I guess. Meanwhile the Court loses its legitimacy as a political arm of the GOP as faith in the Court continues to diminish. It's not going to be pretty.

If they do that though, what will stop the Republicans from doing it right back when they regain control? The precedent will have been set.

Republicans aren't concern with naked power-grab, so why should Democrats be?

[The Dowager Mod]

https://twitter.com/weezwrites/status/1309632458745315329

[Angel of Death]

At this point, why would it matter whether confirmation comes before or after the election?

[lfromnj]

In a shock to absolutely no one, Amy Coney Barrett is a hypocrite.

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1308880483997151237

What did she say here? She is mostly commenting on the situation as far as I can tell. She said the president has the power to nominate and the senate has the power to act on it. That has happened in both situations, the difference is which way the senate chose to act.

[Silent Hunter]

ACB is going to be confirmed literally a week before the election. Beating Trump is one thing, but if Democrats don't take the Senate, nuke the filibuster, and expand the Court, then get used to living in a theocracy I guess. Meanwhile the Court loses its legitimacy as a political arm of the GOP as faith in the Court continues to diminish. It's not going to be pretty.

If they do that though, what will stop the Republicans from doing it right back when they regain control? The precedent will have been set.

Republicans aren't concern with naked power-grab, so why should Democrats be?

Because a tit for tat response will end up in the destruction of the republic.

[Cashew]

ACB is going to be confirmed literally a week before the election. Beating Trump is one thing, but if Democrats don't take the Senate, nuke the filibuster, and expand the Court, then get used to living in a theocracy I guess. Meanwhile the Court loses its legitimacy as a political arm of the GOP as faith in the Court continues to diminish. It's not going to be pretty.

If they do that though, what will stop the Republicans from doing it right back when they regain control? The precedent will have been set.

Republicans aren't concern with naked power-grab, so why should Democrats be?

Because a tit for tat response will end up in the destruction of the republic.

And you plan is what, unilateral disarmament? At least tit for tat gives Republicans some incentive to negotiate, and at the bare minimum has a nonzero chance of Democrats coming out the winners.

[Xing]

If Democrats don’t play hardball when they get the chance, they’re just allowing Republicans to continue to force their will on all of us and make the U.S. less democratic. There is no negotiating with the modern Republican Party; their idea of negotiation is getting literally everything they want at any cost, the majority of Americans be damned. And the only “defense” of their actions I’ve ever seen on this site or elsewhere recently is whataboutism, which is no defense at all.

[President Johnson]

At this point, why would it matter whether confirmation comes before or after the election?

Assuming the Democrats win a trifecta: Republicans wouldn't care, though it would be a giant middle finger to the 70+ million who voted for Joe Biden and put Democrats back in charge of the senate. However, I think the confirmation vote will be in late October.

[Silent Hunter]

And you plan is what, unilateral disarmament? At least tit for tat gives Republicans some incentive to negotiate, and at the bare minimum has a nonzero chance of Democrats coming out the winners.

There is no incentive for Republicans to negotiate on Roe vs. Wade. They see it as mass child murder and will bend or break any rule to get it overturned.

All the Democrats will be doing is giving them a justification. A better use of energies would be in winning state legislatures and changing public opinion so the laws can be changed at state level when/if Roe goes.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Delaying the vote till after the election is a terrible idea. She's going on the Court either way, so it's better (from a DSCC/DCCC tactical perspective) to let the ACB Train leave the station before all the "I don't like Trump personally, but at least he's stacking the courts with City of God types" socons go to the polls.

[Cashew]

And you plan is what, unilateral disarmament? At least tit for tat gives Republicans some incentive to negotiate, and at the bare minimum has a nonzero chance of Democrats coming out the winners.

There is no incentive for Republicans to negotiate on Roe vs. Wade. They see it as mass child murder and will bend or break any rule to get it overturned.

All the Democrats will be doing is giving them a justification. A better use of energies would be in winning state legislatures and changing public opinion so the laws can be changed at state level when/if Roe goes.

If you admit they will bend or break any rule anyways what benefit do Democrats derrive from hobbling themselves, they will always come up woth some excuse anyways regardless of what Democrats do.

[John Dule]

Anyone who accepts this nomination under these circumstances should not sit on any court.

[Storr]

Delaying the vote till after the election is a terrible idea. She's going on the Court either way, so it's better (from a DSCC/DCCC tactical perspective) to let the ACB Train leave the station before all the "I don't like Trump personally, but at least he's stacking the courts with City of God types" socons go to the polls.

This is so dumb. Give up because Socons might be less motivated to vote for Trump if Barrett's already confirmed before the election?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Delaying the vote till after the election is a terrible idea. She's going on the Court either way, so it's better (from a DSCC/DCCC tactical perspective) to let the ACB Train leave the station before all the "I don't like Trump personally, but at least he's stacking the courts with City of God types" socons go to the polls.

This is so dumb. Give up because Socons might be less motivated to vote for Trump if Barrett's already confirmed before the election?

Give up on what, exactly? There's going to be a Republican Senate majority for the next three months even if November is a Democratic wave. She's going on the Court. Genuinely what is the point of going to the mattresses to have her confirmed on November 10 rather than October 30?

[Skill and Chance]

Delaying the vote till after the election is a terrible idea. She's going on the Court either way, so it's better (from a DSCC/DCCC tactical perspective) to let the ACB Train leave the station before all the "I don't like Trump personally, but at least he's stacking the courts with City of God types" socons go to the polls.

This is so dumb. Give up because Socons might be less motivated to vote for Trump if Barrett's already confirmed before the election?

Give up on what, exactly? There's going to be a Republican Senate majority for the next three months even if November is a Democratic wave. She's going on the Court. Genuinely what is the point of going to the mattresses to have her confirmed on November 10 rather than October 30?

Agreed.  Anything that leaves the seat in doubt on election day benefits Republicans.  If ACB is confirmed in October, pro-life voters turned off by Trump can vote him out with confidence that they have already won. 

[Skill and Chance]

Anyone think Roberts could say the heck with it and retire under Biden if the other conservatives start going around him with a bunch of sweeping 5/4 decisions the next 2 terms?

[lfromnj]

Anyone think Roberts could say the heck with it and retire under Biden if the other conservatives start going around him with a bunch of sweeping 5/4 decisions the next 2 terms?

I said thats a possibility if court packing gets really aggressive. Roberts however would until he retires go with 6-3 decisions IMO. Having ACB being the swing vote would really piss D's off.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If procedural sleights of hand don't buy enough time, the Democrats should resort to less sophisticated measures.

Pull the fire alarm so everyone has to leave the building.

Hit the emergency stop button in the elevator with a few GOP senators.

Call Mitch McConnell's cable company pretending to be him and cancel his service, necessitating that Mitch get it turned back on and spend a day sitting at home waiting for the Comcast guy to show up.

[Skill and Chance]

Anyone think Roberts could say the heck with it and retire under Biden if the other conservatives start going around him with a bunch of sweeping 5/4 decisions the next 2 terms?

I said thats a possibility if court packing gets really aggressive. Roberts however would until he retires go with 6-3 decisions IMO. Having ACB being the swing vote would really piss D's off.

I think the new swing vote will be Gorsuch or Kavanaugh depending on the casem not ACB?  Gorsuch is open to textualist decisions that move the law to the left (Bostock, McGirt, etc.), and while Kavanaugh almost always comes down on the conservative side, he likes to rule in the narrowest way possible.  The one place ACB's vote could be decisive is the constitutionality of COVID restrictions.  She joined some circuit court opinions this spring that were very deferential to the state public health authorities.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

So I just read that if ACB is confirmed, Kavanaugh would become the swing justice.

[lfromnj]

Anyone think Roberts could say the heck with it and retire under Biden if the other conservatives start going around him with a bunch of sweeping 5/4 decisions the next 2 terms?

I said thats a possibility if court packing gets really aggressive. Roberts however would until he retires go with 6-3 decisions IMO. Having ACB being the swing vote would really piss D's off.

I think the new swing vote will be Gorsuch or Kavanaugh depending on the casem not ACB?  Gorsuch is open to textualist decisions that move the law to the left (Bostock, McGirt, etc.), and while Kavanaugh almost always comes down on the conservative side, he likes to rule in the narrowest way possible.  The one place ACB's vote could be decisive is the constitutionality of COVID restrictions.  She joined some circuit court opinions this spring that were very deferential to the state public health authorities.

Sorry should not have said ACB as the swing vote but rather the 5th vote for any case. If that happens it would be more likely to ruin the court than Roberts being a loyalist atleast from Robert's point of view.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Delaying the vote till after the election is a terrible idea. She's going on the Court either way, so it's better (from a DSCC/DCCC tactical perspective) to let the ACB Train leave the station before all the "I don't like Trump personally, but at least he's stacking the courts with City of God types" socons go to the polls.

If you're worried about the Republicans pulling a Bush v. Gore II then I could see wanting to keep her off the court until after the election has been decided if you think such a case would go 4-4 instead of 5-3 without her. Besides, socons who care enough about courts to base their vote on this issue will vote Republican regardless. I just don't see anyway the Democrats could reasonably hope to cause such a delay.