Which of these Trump 2016 states will vote for Biden this year?

I would rank in the following order:

1. Arizona - Looks quite favourable for Biden, only down side is poor Hispanic turnout might allow Trump to squeak through, but definitely lean Biden.

2. Florida - Things have tightened up a bit, but Biden still has a slight edge, but Trump certainly could win here. Safest prediction with Florida is it will be close as seems to be a very polarized state and regardless of national environment always close. Even in 2008, Obama only won by 3 points.

3. North Carolina - Unlike other states, its been pretty split down the middle so a toss up. A lot will depend on turnout. White Evangelical turnout should be high which favours Trump, but if African-American and Millennial turnout is better than 2016 than lean Biden, but if weak then lean Trump. So high turnout, narrow Biden win, low turnout, narrow Trump win.

4. Ohio - Despite going for Trump by 8 points, I think Biden's gains in Cincinnati and Columbus suburbs (Trump still wins them, but by much narrower margins than GOP usually gets) will help cancel out Clinton's losses in smaller blue collar communities. I could actually see Franklin County voting as heavily for Biden as Cuyahoga County and likewise wouldn't be surprised if Trump falls below 40% in Hamilton County. So at this point tossup, but if I had to make a guess, I would say Trump by 1 to 2 points.

5. Georgia: State is trending in Democrat's favour, especially in Atlanta suburbs, but still think Trump has narrow edge. But a Biden win is definitely possible and certainly long term state is trending blue so even if Democrats fall short this time, they should win it down the road. Since Abrhams lost by 2 points, I am guessing things have tightened slightly but not much. There are very few swing voters in Georgia; its demographic changes not voter's changing preference that is helping Biden.

6. Texas: Definitely trending blue, but I still think its an election cycle or two away from flipping. Dallas and Houston suburbs won't be GOP blowouts like in past, but still think Trump wins most of them save Fort Bend county and Tarrant county, but by single digits only save Montgomery county, which is the outlier. On other hand rural Texas is solidly GOP and has actually swung away from Democrats (who used to win some ancestral rural counties as recently as 90s). In most swing states rural areas vote GOP, but not by the massive blowouts like in Texas. When GOP is getting in 80s and 90s in rural areas; they can allow one to overcome deficit in metro areas even in a fairly urbanized state.

7. Iowa: Less favourable demographic wise as quite white and fairly rural. Still like most Midwest states voters are more fluid so its not impossible Biden wins here, but most likely it is Trump by 2-4 points. Closer than 2016, but still goes for Trump. Long term Iowa, is about a decade behind Missouri which used to be a competitive state but isn't anymore.

So while Trump could win all and Biden all, I am going to go with Biden flipping Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, but Trump holding Ohio, Georgia, Texas, and Iowa.

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