Quinnipiac KY, SC, ME: Trump+20, Trump+6, Biden+21

[Landslide Lyndon]

ME-01: Biden+32
ME-02: Biden+9

White college voters in ME: Biden+48 !!!
White no college voters in ME: Biden+9

I think Quinnipiac will be downgraded to C following the election.

Maine's probably a bit too D, but the SC and KY #s look about right.

[wbrocks67]

The Maine poll is as believeable as the other Minnesota +16 poll that came out recently. Also doubt Trump is only up six in South Carolina. More likely is eight, nine or ten. Kentucky is Safe Republican anyway, though Joe Biden might improve a little from 2016.

I don't think SC is that unbelievable. If Biden is up 8/9 nationwide, then he can easily be losing only about 5-7 to Trump. That would be about half of Trump's 2016 margin (+14). Not to mention, McMaster only won by 8 in 2018 and the Dem was a nobody.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Susan Collins is DOA. Also, ME-02 seems to be reverting back to Obama 2012 levels.

[libertpaulian]

If Biden only loses SC by 6%, he's already won with Obama's 2012 map, plus Arizona, Georgia, NE-02, North Carolina, and Texas.

[DaleCooper]

Susan Collins is DOA. Also, ME-02 seems to be reverting back to Obama 2012 levels.

I doubt that it'll revert to that, but it's definitely a tossup and frankly, Biden's probably favored.

Totally agree on Susan Collins.

[tagimaucia]

I'll maybe believe the Maine numbers if multiple other polls show something similar, but IMO Biden's probably up by more like 12-14 there.  Probably just a weird sample.

I think the South Carolina numbers are pretty much credible though.  I think the CCES found Trump's approval among midterm voters there at ~52%, and he's getting 51% vote share in this poll with 50% approval.  I still wouldn't give Harrison more than a like 30% chance of winning but... that's pretty good!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Also doubt Trump is only up six in South Carolina. More likely is eight, nine or ten.

His support is collapsing in the Columbia and Charleston suburbs plus Harrison is going to gin up Black turnout which benefits Biden. It's not unbelievable.

[Devils30]

Doesn't it seem like the 2020 trend map might be a reversion to 2012? Like the upper midwest, northern New England trend D, Florida and the southeast trends R, AZ TX continue to trend D.

[libertpaulian]

Also doubt Trump is only up six in South Carolina. More likely is eight, nine or ten.

His support is collapsing in the Columbia and Charleston suburbs plus Harrison is going to gin up Black turnout which benefits Biden. It's not unbelievable.

I think he might get a boost in the Charlotte suburbs too.

[Alben Barkley]

If Biden only loses SC by 6%, he's already won with Obama's 2012 map, plus Arizona, Georgia, NE-02, North Carolina, and Texas.

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

SC is becoming another NC, so much for Rassy showing a 1 pt Trl lead

[Ferguson97]

but muh horse race

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

The Maine numbers look silly, but taken in the context of great polling for Biden in MI, WI, and MN, this looks like the only Trump victory map possible:

Trump 280 Biden 258

Ohio: Must win
Georgia: Must win
North Carolina: Must win
Florida: Must win
Arizona: Must win to avoid a tie (Without AZ, NE-02 and ME-02 become must-wins)
Pennsylvania: Must win

Trump holds tenuous leads in OH and GA (and TX!!!), NC is tied, he's still behind in FL, and he's significantly behind in AZ and PA. Trump needs to sweep these to win. By 538 estimates, Biden is more likely to win Georgia than Trump is to win Pennsylvania. Biden is almost as likely to win Texas as Trump is to win AZ. Biden blowing Trump off the map and getting 400 EVs is about as likely as Trump winning the EC.

I don't buy that Trump's numbers are this bad in Maine, but if they are only, say, 5 points off, it paints a very grim picture of his chances in the EC.

[Buzz]

Quinnipiac has really come a laughing stock pollster haven’t they? Lol

[CellarDoor]

Quinnipiac has really come a laughing stock pollster haven’t they? Lol

No.

[SenatorCouzens]

Maine  was -3 for Trump in 2016 and -21 for him in this poll. How common is an 18 swing in a state against an incumbent president when he's up for re-election? I'm guessing it happened in 1992, 1980, and certainly 1932. Still, it seems pretty extraordinary.

[wbrocks67]

Obama won Maine by 15 in 2012 and 17 in 2008 so I don't think this is that farfetched assuming it kind of snaps back, given Biden's strengths with old people and white people.

Also again, Civiqs has the same approvals essentially for all 3 which i think is interesting. So it's not an inherently anti-GOP poll inside.

[ProudModerate2]

ME-01: Biden+32
ME-02: Biden+9

White college voters in ME: Biden+48 !!!
White no college voters in ME: Biden+9

Isn't this the 2nd recent poll showing a Biden lead in the ME-02?
Very interesting.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

The reason for Biden's big lead in Maine, according to cross-tabs, is that senior voters in Maine are swinging HARD against Trump. 65-67% of the 65+ older crowd support Biden over Trump consistently in the cross-tabs.

That's devastating in a state like Maine. Obviously, it's just one poll but it fits a national trend of Trump collapsing with senior voters.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

ME-01: Biden+32
ME-02: Biden+9

White college voters in ME: Biden+48 !!!
White no college voters in ME: Biden+9

Isn't this the 2nd recent poll showing a Biden lead in the ME-02?
Very interesting.

There've only been 7 polls of ME-02 (6 of which were conducted in July or later) and 5 of them have showed Biden ahead - one of two that didn't was a Democratic internal, weirdly enough.

[wbrocks67]

The reason for Biden's big lead in Maine, according to cross-tabs, is that senior voters in Maine are swinging HARD against Trump. 65-67% of the 65+ older crowd support Biden over Trump consistently in the cross-tabs.

That's devastating in a state like Maine. Obviously, it's just one poll but it fits a national trend of Trump collapsing with senior voters.

I don't think a lot of pundits or media outlets are really grasping the movement among seniors this election to Biden. Seems like a very underrepresented story.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Conservatives act like with WI, with Walker who came in on Doyle scandals and reformed charter schools, that ME 2 is a forever R district, its not Obama won it twice and Clinton, Gore and Kerry won the district. It only became R when Pouquin won the district. It will vote D with WI, making a 269 tie unnecessary

[Hope For A New Era]

Wow. Congratulations Senator Gideon, I guess.

Given Maine's demographics, I imagine there's a big swing happening among seniors here.


If the polls prove to be true, this election could have some really weird demographic breakdowns when all is said and done.

[Crumpets]

Polling this week seems to indicate that Biden's lead has grown across the board.

Virtually every state poll is better for him than 2 weeks ago, some dramatically so.  Virtually every national poll is a bit worse.  It's fascinating.

Trump's leaked comments on the military have been the only thing since the protests broke out that really seemed like it might have an impact on polls, so we might be going through an inflection in the aftermath of that.

[Badger]

That Maine number is too good to believe. But even then it would have to be really really off not to spell trouble for Trump in the second district.

That South Carolina number is tantalizing, but I will rely on traditional observations about polarization and the voting habits of white undecided voters when they reach The Ballot Box.