Quinnipiac KY, SC, ME: Trump+20, Trump+6, Biden+21

[WD]

https://poll.qu.edu/kentucky/release-detail?ReleaseID=3673

[redjohn]

ME-01: Biden+32
ME-02: Biden+9

White college voters in ME: Biden+48 !!!
White no college voters in ME: Biden+9

[Dr. Arch]

Polling this week seems to indicate that Biden's lead has grown across the board.

[Skill and Chance]

Polling this week seems to indicate that Biden's lead has grown across the board.

Virtually every state poll is better for him than 2 weeks ago, some dramatically so.  Virtually every national poll is a bit worse.  It's fascinating.

[Granite City]

RIP BIDEN.

[The Other Castro]

I'm pretty skeptical of that Maine number.

[Lief 🗽]

Absolutely gorgeous numbers, especially in the senate races!

[redjohn]

So Biden's probably not losing ME. NH's absolutely gone too with this number.

[republican1993]

+21 in Maine? that is like +15 lead nationally, quinnipac has been all over the place.

[VAR]

ME-01: Biden+32
ME-02: Biden+9

White college voters in ME: Biden+48 !!!
White no college voters in ME: Biden+9

I think Quinnipiac will be downgraded to C following the election.

[Gass3268]

ME-01: Biden+32
ME-02: Biden+9

White college voters in ME: Biden+48 !!!
White no college voters in ME: Biden+9

I think Quinnipiac will be downgraded to C following the election.

538's grades are only partially based on performance. A lot of it is based on methodology (live caller, cell phone access, sampling process, etc.) which Quinnipiac is always solid with.

[wbrocks67]

ME-01: Biden+32
ME-02: Biden+9

White college voters in ME: Biden+48 !!!
White no college voters in ME: Biden+9

I think Quinnipiac will be downgraded to C following the election.

Maine's probably a bit too D, but the SC and KY #s look about right.

[Tender Branson]

A Senator Harrison out of SC would be cool.

But I guess it won’t happen ...

[wbrocks67]

Polling this week seems to indicate that Biden's lead has grown across the board.

Virtually every state poll is better for him than 2 weeks ago, some dramatically so.  Virtually every national poll is a bit worse.  It's fascinating.

We're in a weird space where it's the opposite of weeks ago, where his state polls looked worse but his national looked better.

I think the problem too is the schedule of high quality polls. If you look at the stronger online polls though, we've gotten many +8 and +9s. But we go a ton of time without a stretch of high quality (NBC/ABC, etc.) so I think that's also a problem.

[libertpaulian]

Those numbers look about right.  I'd say the final KY numbers will be 56-43 for Mitch.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 10-14

KY
1164 likely vtoers
MoE: 2.9%

Trump 58%
Biden 38%
Someone else 1%
Don't know/no answer 4%

ME
1183 likely voters
MoE: 2.9%

Biden 59%
Trump 38%
Someone else 0% (but still a few voters)
Don't know/no answer 3%

ME-01
Biden 64%
Trump 32%
Someone else 1%
Don't know/no answer 3%

ME-02
Biden 53%
Trump 44%
Someone else 0% (can't tell if it's just a negligible number here or actually zero)
Don't know/no answer 3%

SC
969 likely voters
MoE: 3.2%

Trump 51%
Biden 45%
Someone else 0% (but some voters, as this is at 1% in certain crosstabs)
Don't know/no answer 4%

[VAR]

ME-01: Biden+32
ME-02: Biden+9

White college voters in ME: Biden+48 !!!
White no college voters in ME: Biden+9

I think Quinnipiac will be downgraded to C following the election.

Maine's probably a bit too D, but the SC and KY #s look about right.

A bit too D?

[Stuart98]

Those Maine numbers raised eyebrows I didn't even know I had.

[Gass3268]

ME-02 has almost flipped to Biden on 538.

[President Johnson]

The Maine poll is as believeable as the other Minnesota +16 poll that came out recently. Also doubt Trump is only up six in South Carolina. More likely is eight, nine or ten. Kentucky is Safe Republican anyway, though Joe Biden might improve a little from 2016.

[Holmes]

Looks like ME-02 saw the error of its ways.

[Rand]

From the coasts of Maine to the blue fields of Kentucky to the Carolina marshes--Joe Biden has enjoyed a universal swing that proves he is on track to win back the Rust Belt and other "barely Trump" states where the thread of re-election has long been broken.

[DaleCooper]

Regarding the disparity between state and national polls, if Biden's gains with seniors and white voters (educated or not) are real, then the disparity between the EC and popular vote is not going to look like 2016. 

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1306296780112506883

[wbrocks67]

ME-01: Biden+32
ME-02: Biden+9

White college voters in ME: Biden+48 !!!
White no college voters in ME: Biden+9

I think Quinnipiac will be downgraded to C following the election.

Maine's probably a bit too D, but the SC and KY #s look about right.

A bit too D?

Obama won Maine by 17% in 2008. You never know.

These #s line up with what Civiqs is showing too - they have Trump's approval at 36/61, essentially what this poll is showing.

They're also pretty close in Kentucky (+20 approval) and SC (+1 approval)