ABC/Washington Post: Minnesota - Biden +16 | Wisconsin - Biden +6

[wbrocks67]

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1216a12020StateBattlegrounds-WIMN.pdf

September 8-13

MN
615 likely voters
MoE: 4.5% for likely voters

Biden 57%
Trump 41%
Neither 1%
Other 0% (but some voters)
Would not vote 0% (no voters)
No opinion 1%

WI
605 likely voters
MoE: 4.5% for likely voters

Biden 52%
Trump 46%
Neither 1%
Other 0% (but some voters)
Would not vote 0% (no voters)
No opinion 1%

These 0% for neither/other/etc are beautiful sight to see

[wbrocks67]

Minnesota number won’t be anywhere close to reality.  Anyways terrible polling day for the Incumbent.

Interesting that state polls have clearly gotten better for Biden while national polls got marginally worse.

I thought the same thing, but I guess we haven't gotten a *ton* of high quality national polling lately besides Fox. YouGov has been stable, we'll see today...

[wbrocks67]

Dave Wasserman asks what this string of good polls in WI and MN means for Iowa.

Yeah, I feel like we're due for a new Selzer poll. They've kind of been slacking, we hvaen't gotten anything from them since like June

[wbrocks67]

I'm glad I wasn't the only one who thought this framing was absurd. Whoever wrote this write up really doing a LOT to make it seem like a 6 pt difference is somehow tied

https://twitter.com/IChotiner/status/1306077200140005376

[wbrocks67]

Just a reminder, WaPo polls have a pretty great track record.

In 2016, they had Clinton winning VA by 6. She won by 5.
In 2018, they had Wexton leading VA10 by 11 and 13. She won by 12.
In 2016, they had Clinton winning nationally by 3, she won by 2.

[wbrocks67]

Just a reminder, WaPo polls have a pretty great track record.

In 2016, they had Clinton winning VA by 6. She won by 5.
In 2018, they had Wexton leading VA10 by 11 and 13. She won by 12.
In 2016, they had Clinton winning nationally by 3, she won by 2.

Counterpoint: VA and VA10 are among the most overeducated states and CDs, respectively, and the national result in 2016 was thrown off by lopsided margins in California. Show me their record in areas with a lot of working class white voters.

I mean, I can go through and find more but you're also ignoring the fact that they got the margin practically 100% correct *nationally* as well in 2016