ABC/Washington Post: Minnesota - Biden +16 | Wisconsin - Biden +6
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  ABC/Washington Post: Minnesota - Biden +16 | Wisconsin - Biden +6
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Author Topic: ABC/Washington Post: Minnesota - Biden +16 | Wisconsin - Biden +6  (Read 4865 times)
n1240
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« Reply #50 on: September 16, 2020, 07:30:17 AM »

The Minnesota poll moved Biden's win probability by 3% at 538.

Minnesota has gone from tipping point state to same probability for Biden to win as Colorado in two weeks on 538's forecast.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #51 on: September 16, 2020, 07:35:23 AM »

If Biden really takes 57% of the vote in Minnesota I think I'll spend all November listening exclusively to Bob Dylan.
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roxas11
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« Reply #52 on: September 16, 2020, 08:07:06 AM »

The margin seem a little high in Minnesota but the key take away is that Biden is well over 50 percent in both these states

as another poster has already pointed maybe if Biden was leading 45 to 39 I could buy ABC spin that Wisconsin is still close but in this case Biden over 50 percent and trump is still suck in the low 40s

trump simply has no chance of winning this state with poor numbers like that and News organizations like ABC should be brave enough to say that instead of acting like things are still close in Wisconsin.
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redjohn
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« Reply #53 on: September 16, 2020, 09:37:33 AM »

Very positive polls for Biden; 57% in MN and 52% in WI are great numbers. Clinton never got close to 57% in a MN poll, and she never hit 52% in a WI poll. There's much less room for undecided swings here.
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #54 on: September 16, 2020, 10:09:59 AM »

The MN number is clearly an outlier given the underlying partisan breakdown of the electorate there (very small D to R advantage). Nevertheless it is impossible to spin a D+16 poll there as being anywhere close to good for Trump
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EliteLX
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« Reply #55 on: September 16, 2020, 10:24:39 AM »

I don't know who needs to hear this but there hasn't been a 14 point swing in Minnesota after the state just watched it's cities get set on fire and then it's governor & mayor appease them.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #56 on: September 16, 2020, 10:27:35 AM »

I don't know who needs to hear this but there hasn't been a 14 point swing in Minnesota after the state just watched it's cities get set on fire and then it's governor & mayor appease them.

This happened in Trump’s America. People are voting against the burnings that have been happening in Trump’s America.
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jrk26
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« Reply #57 on: September 16, 2020, 10:29:11 AM »


Several times.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #58 on: September 16, 2020, 10:31:40 AM »

I'm glad I wasn't the only one who thought this framing was absurd. Whoever wrote this write up really doing a LOT to make it seem like a 6 pt difference is somehow tied



Gotta have that horse race narrative.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #59 on: September 16, 2020, 10:31:57 AM »

Ugh, MN is definitely an outlier. But the notion Trump was competitive here was way overblown because of a few garbage polls and 2016 vibes. HRC's weak performance was likely the D's floor, while Trump's was the GOP ceiling. He didn't even reach 45% here, similar to GOP gubernatorial candidates in 2014 and 2018. With a smaller 3rd vote share this time, Biden should easily get above 50%.

WI is again looking good so far. Could actually end up voting to the left of PA.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #60 on: September 16, 2020, 10:49:49 AM »

Just a reminder, WaPo polls have a pretty great track record.

In 2016, they had Clinton winning VA by 6. She won by 5.
In 2018, they had Wexton leading VA10 by 11 and 13. She won by 12.
In 2016, they had Clinton winning nationally by 3, she won by 2.
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Beet
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« Reply #61 on: September 16, 2020, 10:52:01 AM »

Just a reminder, WaPo polls have a pretty great track record.

In 2016, they had Clinton winning VA by 6. She won by 5.
In 2018, they had Wexton leading VA10 by 11 and 13. She won by 12.
In 2016, they had Clinton winning nationally by 3, she won by 2.

Counterpoint: VA and VA10 are among the most overeducated states and CDs, respectively, and the national result in 2016 was thrown off by lopsided margins in California. Show me their record in areas with a lot of working class white voters.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #62 on: September 16, 2020, 10:53:47 AM »

I don't know who needs to hear this but there hasn't been a 14 point swing in Minnesota after the state just watched it's cities get set on fire and then it's governor & mayor appease them.

It’s one thing to point out a 14-point swing is unlikely, it’s another to assume that there’s any significant number of people who saw what happened with George Floyd and are more favorable to Trump because they think Frey and Walz are “appeasers.”
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #63 on: September 16, 2020, 10:56:14 AM »

Just a reminder, WaPo polls have a pretty great track record.

In 2016, they had Clinton winning VA by 6. She won by 5.
In 2018, they had Wexton leading VA10 by 11 and 13. She won by 12.
In 2016, they had Clinton winning nationally by 3, she won by 2.

Counterpoint: VA and VA10 are among the most overeducated states and CDs, respectively, and the national result in 2016 was thrown off by lopsided margins in California. Show me their record in areas with a lot of working class white voters.

I mean, I can go through and find more but you're also ignoring the fact that they got the margin practically 100% correct *nationally* as well in 2016
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #64 on: September 16, 2020, 11:13:15 AM »

The WI number is completely believable, and would be considered a strong position for Biden in this state.
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Rand
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« Reply #65 on: September 16, 2020, 11:30:45 AM »


Careful or you'll end up as dry as Trump's campaign coffers.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #66 on: September 16, 2020, 11:37:19 AM »

I don't know who needs to hear this but there hasn't been a 14 point swing in Minnesota after the state just watched it's cities get set on fire and then it's governor & mayor appease them.

It’s one thing to point out a 14-point swing is unlikely, it’s another to assume that there’s any significant number of people who saw what happened with George Floyd and are more favorable to Trump because they think Frey and Walz are “appeasers.”

Yeah, polling has consistently shown that Trump is viewed as making these riots worse while Biden is viewed has being capable of bringing the country together.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #67 on: September 16, 2020, 11:43:55 AM »

If Biden really takes 57% of the vote in Minnesota I think I'll spend all November listening exclusively to Bob Dylan.

Don’t forget Prince!
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #68 on: September 16, 2020, 11:51:58 AM »

If Biden really takes 57% of the vote in Minnesota I think I'll spend all November listening exclusively to Bob Dylan.

Don’t forget Prince!

Right. Prince for the Twin Cities and Bob Dylan for the Arrowhead. So as to cover the two main (non-Atlas) Blue areas.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #69 on: September 16, 2020, 04:39:11 PM »
« Edited: September 17, 2020, 01:23:10 AM by Monstro »

State of the racle with less than 7 weeks to go: Texas is more of a tossup than Michigan/Wisconsin & perhaps Pennsylvania, most news organizations don't want to admit it
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dunceDude
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« Reply #70 on: September 16, 2020, 04:41:50 PM »

I don't know who needs to hear this but there hasn't been a 14 point swing in Minnesota after the state just watched it's cities get set on fire and then it's governor & mayor appease them.

Here's some literature to help you cope with the fact it's no longer 2016:
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #71 on: September 16, 2020, 05:09:04 PM »

State of the race: Texas is more of a tossup than Michigan/Wisconsin & perhaps Pennsylvania, most news organizations don't want to admit it
Most news organization don't want to admit that this has been the most stable presidential election since 1996. All because "muh 2016" and "we want to be objective".
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Rand
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« Reply #72 on: September 16, 2020, 05:09:26 PM »

If Biden really takes 57% of the vote in Minnesota I think I'll spend all November listening exclusively to Bob Dylan.

Don’t forget Prince!

Bob Dylan? Prince? Overrated losers.

But this guy...


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redjohn
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« Reply #73 on: September 16, 2020, 05:12:12 PM »

The confidence I've been seeing from Trump supporters is astounding given how far behind he is and has been since March. Counting on massive polling errors, both nationally and in state polls across multiple states, seems like a poor reason to believe Trump is favored. If TX was Trump+16 and AZ was Trump+6 I don't think pundits would be saying the race is a pure tossup.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #74 on: September 16, 2020, 05:13:37 PM »

I don't know who needs to hear this but there hasn't been a 14 point swing in Minnesota after the state just watched it's cities get set on fire and then it's governor & mayor appease them.

Then good for Biden because he's neither the Mayor of Minneapolis or the Governor of Minnesota.
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