AZ-Gravis: Kelly+5
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  AZ-Gravis: Kelly+5
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Author Topic: AZ-Gravis: Kelly+5  (Read 984 times)
n1240
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« on: September 12, 2020, 07:23:30 AM »

https://gravismarketing.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Arizona-September-11-2020.pdf

Biden 48
Trump 43

9/10-11 684 LV
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2020, 07:30:15 AM »

Trump's approval rating here is 53%. LOL.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2020, 07:33:37 AM »

MoE: 3.8%

Uncertain 9%
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Pollster
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2020, 10:41:51 AM »

What is interesting here is that Kelly's lead appears to be powered by the near universal support of Johnson/Stein 2016 voters - he gets ~90% of both while Biden gets only ~60%.

If you are looking for Trump/Senate Dem voters, these are probably them. Especially important in states where the Johnson/Stein vote was high in 2016: Iowa (4.5%), Kansas (6.6%), Alaska (7.7%), Maine (7%), and Montana (5.6%).
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Storr
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2020, 11:05:32 AM »

Trump's approval rating here is 53%. LOL.
Plus the 684 LVs are only 20% Hispanic and 70% white (non-Hispanic). Arizona was 30% Hispanic and 58% non-Hispanic white in the 2010 census! This should be a fairly Trump leaning group compared to the state as a whole...but he's still behind Amtrak Joe.
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n1240
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« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2020, 04:49:07 PM »

Trump's approval rating here is 53%. LOL.
Plus the 684 LVs are only 20% Hispanic and 70% white (non-Hispanic). Arizona was 30% Hispanic and 58% non-Hispanic white in the 2010 census! This should be a fairly Trump leaning group compared to the state as a whole...but he's still behind Amtrak Joe.

Seems fine to me considering Hispanic voters tend to be significantly lower proportion of the electorate compared to their total population proportion. NYTimes June poll here had 20% Hispanic electorate. 2016 exit polls were 15% Hispanic and 2018 were 18% Hispanic.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2020, 04:54:08 PM »

This race is over
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2020, 05:02:17 PM »

The reason why this race is over: Ducey's career is over, he won't be able to defeat Kelly in 2022 and AZ is now a Dem state, since McCain has died and he would have told McConnell to pass the 1200 stimulus package, and get off his high horses

!200 stimulus will be passed in a Biden Prez, anyways, and Trump was prepared to give a payroll tax cut. and more tax cuts for the rich if he got reelected, what consumers don't want
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2020, 05:30:22 PM »


It's been over for months now
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2020, 05:58:12 PM »


Arguably been over since McSally lost but got appointed to the other seat anyway.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2020, 11:39:42 AM »

New Poll: Arizona Senator (Special) by Gravis Marketing on 2020-09-11

Summary: D: 48%, R: 43%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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