What is Trump's pathway to victory at this point?

[Tekken_Guy]

What does Trump need to do in order to win the election at this point?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Hold onto Pennsylvania and Florida, though things are largely out of his control. 

[Nyvin]

I don't really think there's anything he can do.   At this point it'd probably take some large external event to come up to swing the race.   

Everyday that the status quo continues is generally good for Biden.

[Tekken_Guy]

Hold onto Pennsylvania and Florida. 

Easier said than done. How does Trump offset the bleeding in the Philly region and with FL seniors?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Getting really lucky in the EC.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Hold onto Pennsylvania and Florida, though things are largely out of his control. 

Even then WI, AZ, and NE-02 put Biden just at 270. He would still need WI/AZ or hold on to NE-02 and have the House give it to him.

[voice_of_resistance]

Deploying right wing militias to Philly/Detroit/Milwaukee to intimidate black voters. Basically he's trying a combo of 1876 + 1968 at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pass the 1200 stimulus package would help his reelection prospects, but he thinks he is giving Pelosi the store if he surrenders to her, if not passing the stimulus package was helping Trump, he would be tied or close to Biden in polling since his Executive Orders and he is 9 pts down.

[Cosmic Latte]

It probably centers on Pennsylvania and Florida, which he could win if the race tightened nationally by several points and he manages to over-preform in those states. If the race tightens nationally by a few points, he probably will also win all the states that are currently very close (IA, TX, GA, OH, NC, and ME-2) if democrats don't substantially over-preform in any of those states.

If Trump wins these states and Biden manages to pick up MI, WI, NE-2, and AZ and hold all of Clinton's other states, then the race will be very close with a 270-268 edge for Biden. To win the election, Trump would then have to win a seat that, given the national environment, we would probably expect to go to Biden. This will take some luck, but luckily for Trump, in a D +4 or D +5 race, he'd probably have several opportunities (MI, WI, NE-2, AZ, MN, and NV seem like the most obvious ones to me) and he would only have to win 1. If he won NE-2, the election would go to the house which, considering that the national environment in this scenario appears better for Rs than 2018, would probably maintain a majority of states which would cast votes for Trump.

So I guess it's possible, but this scenario does require Trump to close the gap by 2-4% and then get pretty lucky on top of that. While this doesn't really sound like a lot, the polling average has been quite steady so far according to 538, with Trump only getting into the range he needs briefly in April, so it's tough to see this happening unless something big happens to shake up the race.

[SnowLabrador]

Mass voter suppression.

[Ferguson97]

1. Deploy DHS agents to intimidate Black and Hispanic voters in swing states.

2. Continue to dismantle the USPS to slow down mail-in ballots from arriving on time.

3. Legally challenge mail-in ballots that do arrive for mismatched signatures, etc.

4. Have insider poll workers destroy mail-in ballots in heavy-Democratic areas.

[pbrower2a]

Basically -- lie, cheat, and steal... and have a veritable army of others do so on his behalf.

[Del Tachi]

PA + FL gets him to 267, honestly

[RINO Tom]

First of all, I predict that he will not win and that any path to victory is extremely hard ... so whoever feels the need to critique my "analysis," you're wasting your breath, lol.

I see his only path as enough of his 2016 voters who were skeptical about him in the first place deciding that to stick with him.  Given all of the turmoil that followed the (IMO) successful tax law, that might require one of two things:

A) These voters determine that Joe Biden is not competent enough to be President and that a rude/crude/disgusting/whatever Trump is at the very least "all there."

B) These voters determine that Joe Biden no longer represents Democratic ideology and that his personal views/outlooks are irrelevant in the face of him being beholden to the AOCs of the world ... effectively the way Democrats painted Romney in 2012.  Similarly tied to this would be getting enough voters to determine that the DNC has punted on crime/looting/protests/whatever and that they'd rather have a racist who will keep order over a "non-racist" that won't do enough to keep them feeling safe when the next racist cop shoots the next innocent Black man (not interested in someone's BLM argument ... I'm trying to hypothesize a voter's attitudes here...).

Both of these will be difficult, given the environment, but I do not believe for one second that Donald Trump will gain enough new voters and/or cash in on "pro-GOP trends" or whatever to offset losing voters who held their noses to vote for him.  We're not talking Romney-Clinton people here ... we're talking Republicans who have since become less sure about him.

[SenatorCouzens]

Hold Iowa and Ohio -- seems likely unless there is a blowout of sorts

Narrowly win polarized North Carolina -- doable

Manage to win Florida -- a coin toss, but doable

Carry Arizona, probably the last time a Republican president will in a close presidential election -- might be tough by now, or perhaps just in time

Then it comes down to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania again. I'm willing to add Minnesota to the list, although it's a long shot it's clearly a state that is changing politically and therefore there's more uncertainty there

Not likely, but not out of the question Debates, economy, covid, scandals, in the next seven weeks. It can all go in a few different directions. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump has no path, he only can count on, as my maps shows, the Morman triangle AK MT, ID, WY and UT, the Plains NEB, KS, ND, SD, OK and SE: LA, WVA, KY, TN, SC, AL, and TN.  Everything else, can go secular blue or Atlas D red in a Biden tsunami

If Rs stonewalling the 1200 stimulus checks were doing any good, Trump will be kneck and kneck in polling and RCP average has him 7 pts behind consistently

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

B) These voters determine that Joe Biden no longer represents Democratic ideology and that his personal views/outlooks are irrelevant in the face of him being beholden to the AOCs of the world ... effectively the way Democrats painted Romney in 2012.  Similarly tied to this would be getting enough voters to determine that the DNC has punted on crime/looting/protests/whatever and that they'd rather have a racist who will keep order over a "non-racist" that won't do enough to keep them feeling safe when the next racist cop shoots the next innocent Black man (not interested in someone's BLM argument ... I'm trying to hypothesize a voter's attitudes here...).

Democrats didn't argue Romney was beholden to the Tea Party. They argued he was an out-of-touch plutocrat who didn't care about ordinary people, the kind of person whose corporate downsizings left cancer patients without insurance coverage and hollowed out communities, who thought it was humane to strap a dog to the roof of a car while speeding down an Interstate, who was a bully in high school, who was such a stiff suit that he remarked about "liking sport" and his favorite food being "hot dog."

And Mittens sniveling about ungrateful poors in his 47 Percent speech in a ballroom of rich donors didn't help matters.

If you look at the 2012 exit polls, what really did it in for Romney was that there was a sizable share of voters who thought the most important aspect of a president was that they "understand/care about people like me" and Obama absolutely demolished Romney among that segment.

[bilaps]

Hold Iowa and Ohio -- seems likely unless there is a blowout of sorts

Narrowly win polarized North Carolina -- doable

Manage to win Florida -- a coin toss, but doable

Carry Arizona, probably the last time a Republican president will in a close presidential election -- might be tough by now, or perhaps just in time

Then it comes down to Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania again. I'm willing to add Minnesota to the list, although it's a long shot it's clearly a state that is changing politically and therefore there's more uncertainty there

Not likely, but not out of the question Debates, economy, covid, scandals, in the next seven weeks. It can all go in a few different directions. 

This is basicaly it. I have a hard time thinking AZ will go blue if Trump carries FL and WI or PA.

[RINO Tom]

B) These voters determine that Joe Biden no longer represents Democratic ideology and that his personal views/outlooks are irrelevant in the face of him being beholden to the AOCs of the world ... effectively the way Democrats painted Romney in 2012.  Similarly tied to this would be getting enough voters to determine that the DNC has punted on crime/looting/protests/whatever and that they'd rather have a racist who will keep order over a "non-racist" that won't do enough to keep them feeling safe when the next racist cop shoots the next innocent Black man (not interested in someone's BLM argument ... I'm trying to hypothesize a voter's attitudes here...).

Democrats didn't argue Romney was beholden to the Tea Party. They argued he was an out-of-touch plutocrat who didn't care about ordinary people, the kind of person whose corporate downsizings left cancer patients without insurance coverage and hollowed out communities, who thought it was humane to strap a dog to the roof of a car while speeding down an Interstate, who was a bully in high school, who was such a stiff suit that he remarked about "liking sport" and his favorite food being "hot dog."

And Mittens sniveling about ungrateful poors in his 47 Percent speech in a ballroom of rich donors didn't help matters.

If you look at the 2012 exit polls, what really did it in for Romney was that there was a sizable share of voters who thought the most important aspect of a president was that they "understand/care about people like me" and Obama absolutely demolished Romney among that segment.

They're perfectly capable of doing both, and that is what they did - ya know, in the same way that Hillary Clinton was talking about Donald Trump as a dangerous and unbecoming demagogue in wealthy suburban markets while running ads in Iowa about how he was a fake protectionist due to his long history of outsourcing jobs.

I vividly remember Democratic personalities and actual real-life voters saying shlt like, "This isn't the Mitt Romney who governed Massachusetts; he's just a vessel of the right wing of the GOP."

[Progressive Pessimist]

Getting really lucky in the EC again.

Also cheating.

[Former President tack50]

Going by current polls in RCP it seems the "path of least resistance" for Trump is, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, this map:



Using a bit of intuition I'd say Trump's path of least resistance is instead 2016 minus AZ and PA.

[ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed]

Going by current polls in RCP it seems the "path of least resistance" for Trump is, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, this map:



Using a bit of intuition I'd say Trump's path of least resistance is instead 2016 minus AZ and PA.

This would actually be a smart strategy. It would likely pull John James to victory.

[brucejoel99]

"Voter suppression" is gonna be hard when states like MI, WI, & PA have Democratic governors now, & regardless, not only is he still more-than-vulnerable in FL (which has added nearly a million new people to the voter rolls since 2016) & AZ, but he's not even in a position to take NC, GA, or TX(!) for granted anymore. So this is gonna be hard for him. His best hopes are a (frankly miraculous) economic recovery happening over the course of these next 53 days & ideally a legitimate COVID-19 vaccine being approved (which is highly unlikely, to say the least).

[Pericles]

He should emphasize the economy a lot more tha culture wars (as the economy is his one remaining strength) and focus on the idea that he made the economy great before and America needs a 'businessman' rather than a 'DC insider/swamp creature' like Biden to restore jobs and growth. It probably wouldn't be enough to win, and of course it isn't actually true. He would probably benefit too from being more supportive of social distancing and mask wearing, while he could still oppose lockdowns and perhaps if he wears a mask while fear-mongering that Biden will lock the country down and destroy jobs, that could be a good move politically.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump letting McConnell pull the 1200 stimulus isn't a smart strategy, if it was working Trump would be tied with Biden, but he's not.

Lol, Trump is spending 0 monies in MI, AA in DTW or any state wont support a conservative AA just because he is AA. The Trump and Putin connection is stark. It goes back to the 60s when Lee Harvey Oswald and the KGB were patsies with Hoover, who knew about Lee being cousin of Robet E Lee and vowed to kill Kennedy if his Russian wife didn't get a visa in Cuba. Lee Oswald told Hoover this and they had him in the FBI office, before the assassination. Its in Parkland