What is Trump's pathway to victory at this point?

[Ferguson97]

Going by current polls in RCP it seems the "path of least resistance" for Trump is, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, this map:



Using a bit of intuition I'd say Trump's path of least resistance is instead 2016 minus AZ and PA.

There's no way Trump keeps Michigan. Pennsylvania is a likelier state for him to keep.

[Buzz]

He has several, yet once again posters here think it’s impossible lol.

[Nyvin]

Going by current polls in RCP it seems the "path of least resistance" for Trump is, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, this map:



Using a bit of intuition I'd say Trump's path of least resistance is instead 2016 minus AZ and PA.

I'm really not convinced it's possible for Trump to win Nevada but not Arizona.  

A few weeks ago I would've said that out of PA/MI/WI, WI was the one that would stay Republican were Trump to win, but nowadays it's actually looking like it's PA.

I'd say the path of least resistance is keeping FL/NC/AZ/PA republican.



A map like this could potentially be something like a Biden +2 or +3 PV win (fortunately it doesn't seem likely to happen).

[DaleCooper]

If that YouGov poll is accurate and something like 15-25% of voters changed their minds after the Woodward tapes then Trump's path to victory is even more if not exclusively dependent on voter suppression and other illegal activity, but I'm going to have to wait for more data to back that up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Minority voters make up the majority of the working poor and Covid has hit the minority community very hard. Trump needs minority voters in AZ, FL, GA, NC, MI and TX that he won't get due to McConnelll putting off the 1200 stimulus package until after the election.  Trump wont win Latinos in FL and wont get AA in MI to win. 50 M jobs that left were mostly in retail and food servicing jobs, like waiter and waitressing and cashier jobs.

The Hypocrasy is that Leader McConnell and Leader Boehner ignored the deficit to pass TARP, to give Auto Bailouts and Bank Bailouts in 2008 with Prez Bush W, but is all of sudden concerned with deficit when it comes to spending for consumers.  Just like they always do, when they passed 1996 Welfare Reform

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Rs think that 1200 stimulus money that consumers are getting is money that belong to the Treasury dept or Donald Trump's money, its not, it needs to be released to consumers, not only do we spend it in the economy on goods and groceries, we put into the Treasury when we work and pay taxes.

Biden is gonna release it anyways.

[BaldEagle1991]

1. Deploy DHS agents to intimidate Black and Hispanic voters in swing states.

2. Continue to dismantle the USPS to slow down mail-in ballots from arriving on time.

3. Legally challenge mail-in ballots that do arrive for mismatched signatures, etc.

4. Have insider poll workers destroy mail-in ballots in heavy-Democratic areas.

Basically...cheating.

[Sir Mohamed]

Voter suppression through "cleaning up" voter lists and depressed turnout as a result of the pandemic. Then get lucky in the EC again by narrowly holding on to most 2016 states. He can afford losing MI and one other state besides FL. The NPV gap would of course be larger than last time.

Mostly we're talking about factors beyond Mr. Trump's control. Over half of the country has a strongly negative opinion of him, and there is nothing that can change that. 2016 for sure was an upset, but all indications we have right now show that 2020 needs to be an even bigger upset for him to win. I can hardly see factors or events up to 11/03 that could change these very facts.

But again, Dems shouldn't take it for granted. And we should not just insist on winning, but win in a landslide. There needs to be zero doubt the Biden/Harris ticket won a decisive victory and Dems won senate control. Trump and his enablers need to go down in a massive blowout to put an end to the toxic cult called Trumpism.

[Tender Branson]

All it needs is a polling error in a few states again.

Trump's chances are very much alive.

Biden's lead in most swing states is within 5%.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Biden's lead in most swing states is within 5%.

Except it isn't:

[Tender Branson]

This table is a joke.

It has Biden+6.5 in NV for example, when the 2 only recent polls were B+5 and B+4.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Biden's lead in most swing states is within 5%.

Except it isn't:

Remember that any poll that shows good news for Biden is an outlier and a lie though!

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

This table is a joke.

It has Biden+6.5 in NV for example, when the 2 only recent polls were B+5 and B+4.

Do you think the 538 averages are a joke? Because that's where the table's numbers come from, though the current number in Nevada should be 5.9, it hasn't been updated yet.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This table is a joke.

It has Biden+6.5 in NV for example, when the 2 only recent polls were B+5 and B+4.

Do you think the 538 averages are a joke? Because that's where the table's numbers come from, though the current number in Nevada should be 5.9, it hasn't been updated yet.

Also the last 2 polls, only 1 was by a credible pollster (NYT), so the other one really wasn't rate heavily. You also ahve to consider that both these recent polls had high undecides which inherently causes to be weighted less.

[here2view]

Take your pick of Trump winning either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania

[Tender Branson]

This table is a joke.

It has Biden+6.5 in NV for example, when the 2 only recent polls were B+5 and B+4.

Do you think the 538 averages are a joke? Because that's where the table's numbers come from, though the current number in Nevada should be 5.9, it hasn't been updated yet.

If they are showing the polling results wrong (see NV), then yes.

It should be 4.5 for NV.

Their weighting of polls is idiotic and shouldn't be used.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

This table is a joke.

It has Biden+6.5 in NV for example, when the 2 only recent polls were B+5 and B+4.

Do you think the 538 averages are a joke? Because that's where the table's numbers come from, though the current number in Nevada should be 5.9, it hasn't been updated yet.

If they are showing the polling results wrong (see NV), then yes.

It should be 4.5 for NV.

Their weighting of polls is idiotic and shouldn't be used.

Their weighing of polls reduces the influence of low rated pollsters, which I don't think is idiotic at all, but let's assume you're right, Nevada's polling average should be a 4.5 Biden lead. That still doesn't make your previous assertion that Biden is leading by less than 5 points in most swing states true.

[GeneralMacArthur]

There's a couple pathways to victory.  All of these assume Trump wins ME-02.

First, Trump HAS to win Florida.  If he loses Florida, he has to sweep WI/MI/PA again.  Even just winning MI+PA would still be 271-267.

From there, it depends on whether or not he can hold Arizona.  Most of these scenarios depend on Trump's ability to win a contested election due to the current House makeup, meaning 269 is sufficient for victory.

If Trump holds Arizona, then winning any ONE of the midwestern states is sufficient for victory.  Winning FL+AZ+MN, or FL+AZ+WI, for instance, gives him 269 EVs.  No need for PA (or NE-02).

If Trump loses Arizona, then he MUST win NE-02.  Then he has two paths to victory:
Win PA
Win MN+WI
both get him 269 EVs.



Conversely, if Biden were to invest substantial resources in ME-02 and NE-02 and win both of those districts, he would be able to win in the following scenarios:

Biden only flips PA+MI but Trump holds WI
Biden flips PA/MI/WI but loses MN
Biden flips AZ but loses WI and MN
Biden flips AZ but loses PA

If Biden wins MI and FL it's essentially game over as the only plausible Trump victory map is Trump winning AZ, MN, WI, and PA.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Send China an invoice for 6 Trillion dollars for costs incurred associated with Corona-virus.

Send Mexico an invoice for 10 Billion dollars for costs incurred building The Wall.

Nothing like a bit of xenophobia to get the hearts sturring.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs don't get Demand and supply side economics, Tax cuts for the Rich doesn't trickle down to the working poor, Demand side which the 1200 stimulus would fuel economic growth and raising the minimum wage would give job growth. In addition to that, Rs have not invested in Clean Energy and just want to keep drilling in ANWR and Keystone Pipeline which are fueling the Wildfires here in the Pacific. CALI doesn't have oil drilling off its coast, but is still affected by oil drilling with severe droughts in the Summer time. 

Federal Jobs guarentee, renewable energy, and green jobs and DC and PR statehood will give consumers the confidence to get back in the workforce, instead of 2001 and 2017 tax cuts that put us in deficits and 2 Recessions happened

[Inmate Trump]

What is Trump's pathway?

Fraud.

[Progressive Pessimist]

He has several, yet once again posters here think it’s impossible lol.

So, what are they?

[Frodo]

Cheating.

[Amtrak Joe]

Low turnout, media manipulation, an0 voter suppression.

[Admiral Stockdale]

Take Arizona, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota can still all go Biden.

If I am advising Trump... I go all in on those three states.