Cook Political rating changes: Florida to Tossup, Nevada to Lean D
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  Cook Political rating changes: Florida to Tossup, Nevada to Lean D		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Cook Political rating changes: Florida to Tossup, Nevada to Lean D  (Read 2580 times)
NOVA Green
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« Reply #25 on: September 11, 2020, 03:58:28 AM »
FL would definitely be a state where Toss-Up / Tilt (0-5% either win for either Party) would seem to apply regardless of National Polling and dynamics for either Political Party within a GE environment.

We have a considerable amount of polling evidence that Biden is out-performing among Seniors (although that lead appears to be slipping a bit in recent Months), and some more recent polling which throws the "Latino Voter" potential shifts out there among Cuban-Americans, or possibly Venezuelan-Americans, etc....

So fine on FL being in the Tossup/Tilt Category...

Nevada as others have posted sounds a bit more bizarre...

Sure Trump did obtain 45/46% of the vote vs HRC only at 48%...

No Greens on the ballot only Gary Johnson and "None of the Above" Voters (Which perhaps one could use as a proxy for WI votes)...

LBT voters in NV will likely skew Biden....

None of the Above... could be a mixture of Sanders / McMullin voters...

Still, regardless of the hypothetical scenarios in their write-ups, we have to look at the *actuals* from '16 GE-PRES, and although I am extremely skeptical about turning NV into only a Trump State...

Pretty sure Biden will win by at least 8% in '20... Still def not a State where Biden should be complacent in...

Uncle Joe 6-8% will roll downballot...

Plus Henderson, NV looks like a flip-zone...
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Red Wall
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« Reply #26 on: September 11, 2020, 07:44:34 AM »
Florida lean D given past results was absurd.

As for Nevada it's lean D but unlikely for Trump to carry, the Harry Reid machine is the best political machine of the US. Ultimately he's going to get those casino workers to vote.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #27 on: September 11, 2020, 09:45:11 AM »
Reflecting on this overnight, isn't it kind of ridiculous to say mass unemployment and an economic and health crisis raging through a state would hurt the challenger? Doesn't this hurt the incumbent? I see the case for Lean D NV, but this isn't it, and it just seems like they desperately want a horserace narrative.
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #28 on: September 11, 2020, 10:48:19 AM »
Does anyone have any insight on how the covid preventing some in person activity and the casino industry being hit hard might affect the ability of the Reid machine?
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #29 on: September 11, 2020, 11:36:34 AM »
Quote from: YE on September 10, 2020, 10:17:33 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on September 10, 2020, 07:01:40 PM
what is with this idea that Nevada is safe Democrat?  Hillary barely won it and she was popular among hispanics.  Also, there have been mass layoffs in Las Vegas so who knows how many people even live there right now.

What does that even mean? That despite eviction and foreclosure moratoriums as well as the fact that we are in a pandemic, thousands of people are fleeing the city? And you think mass layoffs would hurt Biden?



Um yes, if 22 year old servers or line cooks are broke and move back with their parents in California and therefore cannot vote in Nevada at all, I certainly do think it could hurt Biden.  If they're no longer part of an organized union it could as well.
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Xing
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« Reply #30 on: September 11, 2020, 12:14:54 PM »




Thanks, I needed a good laugh.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #31 on: September 11, 2020, 12:17:36 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on April 23, 2019, 11:07:59 AM
Here's how this is gonna go:

1. Very early polls will have the Democrat leading.
2. Then the polls will shift and Trump will have a narrow to sometimes even a moderate lead. One poll will show Trump by double digits, event though they don't have a Spanish language option. Dems in disarray. Sean Trende will say something stupid and Harry Enten will say that the polls have never been wrong in Nevada.
3. The polls will then tighten about a month before the election. Everyone will then call it a Toss Up.
4. Early voting will start and it will be strong for the Democrats initially, but then the Republicans will recover during the first week after Trump does a visit. Jon Ralston will say it's close.
5. Democrats crush the early vote in the last week. Jon Ralston says its essentially over.
6. Democrats win by 3-7 points.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #32 on: September 11, 2020, 12:32:06 PM »
AZ is gonna go D
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ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed
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« Reply #33 on: September 11, 2020, 12:33:59 PM »

No. It will go R along with FL and WI and we will get a 269-269 tie.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #34 on: September 11, 2020, 12:40:36 PM »

LOL, Biden has a RCP average of 7 pts and the recent poll has Biden leading by 9
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Pollster
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« Reply #35 on: September 11, 2020, 12:54:46 PM »
It must be that point in the cycle where GOP prospects in Nevada inexplicably are inflated only for them to lose by a predictable margin.
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ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed
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« Reply #36 on: September 13, 2020, 02:06:30 PM »
Trump could seriously win Nevada.
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NYSforKennedy2024
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« Reply #37 on: September 13, 2020, 02:07:43 PM »

Trump is not going to win Nevada lmao
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ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed
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« Reply #38 on: September 13, 2020, 02:08:05 PM »

Red Eagle says he will. So he will.
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republican1993
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« Reply #39 on: September 13, 2020, 02:08:34 PM »

is this you? i always watch your videos!
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ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed
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« Reply #40 on: September 13, 2020, 02:08:52 PM »

lol no. I wish I could make videos as good as him.
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Left Wing
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« Reply #41 on: September 13, 2020, 02:10:20 PM »
Imagine thinking red eagle is good at predicting things lmao
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #42 on: September 13, 2020, 02:15:24 PM »
I just got an email saying McGrath is ahead 41-40 over obstructionist McConnell, the polls keep saying that its a tight race, but other polls are showing a blue tsunami, what polls are we supposed to believe
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Kuumo
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« Reply #43 on: September 13, 2020, 02:25:22 PM »
Is Nevada going to become the new Minnesota on Atlas? Maybe I should change my forum persona to "Unemployed Hispanic Nevadan who won't vote even though he lost his casino job because of Trump's mishandling of the pandemic."
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Person Man
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« Reply #44 on: September 13, 2020, 02:26:01 PM »

What about Red Beagle?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #45 on: September 13, 2020, 02:30:57 PM »
Trump isn't cracking the blue wall, Hillary was the only one he could beat, and if Hillary ran in 2008 she would have dominated Trump just like Biden is doing now, and no Trump isn't winning NV and obstructionist McConnell is level pegging with McGrath due to his obstruction of the 1200 stimulus package, and he is supposed to win by 20
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #46 on: August 31, 2021, 08:05:10 PM »
Cook and this forum were way too bullish on Nevada.  I am looking through old posts and this forum was most off about Nevada than perhaps any state with the exception of maybe Ohio, which really shouldn't have been thought to be competitive.
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