Rate Nevada

[ElectionsGuy]

Vote in previous threads here:

AZ CO FL GA IA ME ME-02 MI NE-02 NH NC OH PA TX VA WI

Safe R: 125
Likely R: 56
Lean R: 38
Toss-Up/Tilt R: 41
Toss-Up/Tilt D: 46
Lean D: 6
Likely D: 22
Safe D: 183

Republican: 260
Democratic: 257

[libertpaulian]

Lean D, closer to Likely, though.

[S019]

Tilt D, closer to Lean than Tossup

[ON Progressive]

Likely D. Trump isn’t winning this state unless he’s winning the national popular vote.

[😥]

Likely D

[Xing]

Likely D. Despite what some NV polls might say, it’s not flipping in anything resembling a competitive race, and it definitely won’t vote to the right of Michigan or Pennsylvania.

[Esteemed Jimmy]

Lean D, closer to Likely, though.

[standwrand]

Lean D, closer to Likely, though.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Lean D, closer to Likely, though.

[morgankingsley]

Likely democrat, but trump can win it on a good night

[pbrower2a]

New Mexico with casinos. The fast-growing Latino (largely Mexican-American) electorate seals the deal.

[Gass3268]

Here's how this is gonna go:

1. Very early polls will have the Democrat leading.
2. Then the polls will shift and Trump will have a narrow to sometimes even a moderate lead. One poll will show Trump by double digits, event though they don't have a Spanish language option. Dems in disarray. Sean Trende will say something stupid and Harry Enten will say that the polls have never been wrong in Nevada.
3. The polls will then tighten about a month before the election. Everyone will then call it a Toss Up.
4. Early voting will start and it will be strong for the Democrats initially, but then the Republicans will recover during the first week after Trump does a visit. Jon Ralston will say it's close.
5. Democrats crush the early vote in the last week. Jon Ralston says its essentially over.
6. Democrats win by 3-7 points.

[Sestak]

Here's how this is gonna go:

1. Very early polls will have the Democrat leading.
2. Then the polls will shift and Trump will have a narrow to sometimes even a moderate lead. One poll will show Trump by double digits. Dems in disarray. Sean Trende will say something stupid and Harry Enten will say that the polls have never been wrong in Nevada.
3. The polls will then tighten about a month before the election. Everyone will then call it a Toss Up.
4. Early voting will start and it will be strong for the Democrats initially, but then the Republicans will recover during the first week after Trump does a visit. Jon Ralston will say it's close.
5. Democrats crush the early vote in the last week. Jon Ralston says its essentially over.
6. Democrats win by 3-7 points.

This pretty much.

[Frenchrepublican]

Likely D
NV won’t vote for the D nominee by a large margin but it’s a very inelastic state so Trump is clearly the underdog in this state

[Woody]

Here's how this is gonna go:

1. Very early polls will have the Democrat leading.
2. Then the polls will shift and Trump will have a narrow to sometimes even a moderate lead. One poll will show Trump by double digits, event though they don't have a Spanish language option. Dems in disarray. Sean Trende will say something stupid and Harry Enten will say that the polls have never been wrong in Nevada.
3. The polls will then tighten about a month before the election. Everyone will then call it a Toss Up.
4. Early voting will start and it will be strong for the Democrats initially, but then the Republicans will recover during the first week after Trump does a visit. Jon Ralston will say it's close.
5. Democrats crush the early vote in the last week. Jon Ralston says its essentially over.
6. Democrats win by 3-7 points.

You're incredibly cucked if you think Trump loses by 5+ points.

[Frenchrepublican]

Here's how this is gonna go:

1. Very early polls will have the Democrat leading.
2. Then the polls will shift and Trump will have a narrow to sometimes even a moderate lead. One poll will show Trump by double digits, event though they don't have a Spanish language option. Dems in disarray. Sean Trende will say something stupid and Harry Enten will say that the polls have never been wrong in Nevada.
3. The polls will then tighten about a month before the election. Everyone will then call it a Toss Up.
4. Early voting will start and it will be strong for the Democrats initially, but then the Republicans will recover during the first week after Trump does a visit. Jon Ralston will say it's close.
5. Democrats crush the early vote in the last week. Jon Ralston says its essentially over.
6. Democrats win by 3-7 points.

You're incredibly cucked if you think Trump loses by 5+ points.

Honestly I would guess that a 51/47 D victory in NV is fairly likely

[President Johnson]

Lean Democratic as for now.

Likely with Biden, Harris or Beto. Lean with Mayor Pete (as for now) and tossup/lean with Bernard.

[SnowLabrador]

Tilt D. Sisolak only won by 4 in a blue wave.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lean D, closer to Likely, though.

Likely democrat, but trump can win it on a good night

It would have to be a really, really good night for him.

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean D, closer to Likely, though.

Likely democrat, but trump can win it on a good night

It would have to be a really, really good night for him.

He could virtually tie in the popular vote 47-47 and eke out Nevada. That's assuming it doesn't trend Democratic, which it very well could, but Nevada isn't that D-leaning.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lean D, closer to Likely, though.

Likely democrat, but trump can win it on a good night

It would have to be a really, really good night for him.

He could virtually tie in the popular vote 47-47 and eke out Nevada. That's assuming it doesn't trend Democratic, which it very well could, but Nevada isn't that D-leaning.

A tie in the popular vote would in fact be a very good night for Trump.

[MT Treasurer]

Likely D, and that’s being very generous to Republicans. If he couldn’t win it in 2016 in a perfect storm, he’s not winning it in 2020 after four more years of demographic change favoring Democrats and a masterful Democratic GOTV machine.