Cook Political rating changes: Florida to Tossup, Nevada to Lean D

[Gracile]

Cook Political made two rating changes today in their Electoral College projection in favor of Republicans:

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/electoral-college-rating-changes-florida-and-nevada-shift-right

FL-PRES: Lean D > Tossup
NV-PRES: Likely D > Lean D

[woodley park]

The Nevada change is silly -- not a single Nevada poll stands out to me. Has there been any polling there recently? Not to mention, the state is notoriously difficult to accurately poll. Also, the analysis underpinning the change seems.. frankly.. pretty dumb:

There are plenty of reasons for why the Biden campaign should be nervous about their hold on this state. First, Nevada — with its tourism-based economy — was hit extraordinarily hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. At the end of August, the state's unemployment rate was almost twice as high as the national average. Many folks are more worried about how they are going to be able to keep a roof over their head or food on the table. The upcoming election is probably not high on their priority list.

Wait, so the state is being hit by a horrible economic crisis on the incumbent's watch, and yet its the challenger's problem? That doesn't seem right to me. Winning the state in 2016 didn't do anything to make the Democrats responsible for problems the state is having now..

Meanwhile, their previous change of Florida to lean D struck me as premature. The state is constantly down to the wire, why would some Biden-friendly polls prompt a permanent change in its status? They haven't done the same to Arizona, Texas, or North Carolina after all. Seemed like an odd choice for going out on a limb.

All in all this just kind of seems like a bit of low energy concern trolling, or perhaps like trying too hard to make the race more compelling.

[Gracile]

The Nevada change is silly -- not a single Nevada poll stands out to me. Has there been any polling there recently? Not to mention, the state is notoriously difficult to accurately poll. Also, the analysis underpinning the change seems.. frankly.. pretty dumb:

There are plenty of reasons for why the Biden campaign should be nervous about their hold on this state. First, Nevada — with its tourism-based economy — was hit extraordinarily hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. At the end of August, the state's unemployment rate was almost twice as high as the national average. Many folks are more worried about how they are going to be able to keep a roof over their head or food on the table. The upcoming election is probably not high on their priority list.

Wait, so the state is being hit by a horrible economic crisis on the incumbent's watch, and yet its the challenger's problem? That doesn't seem right to me. Winning the state in 2016 didn't do anything to make the Democrats responsible for problems the state is having now..

Meanwhile, their previous change of Florida to lean D struck me as premature. The state is constantly down to the wire, why would some Biden-friendly polls prompt a permanent change in its status? They haven't done the same to Arizona, after all. Seemed like an odd choice for going out on a limb.

Yeah, that quoted section doesn't make any sense. High unemployment/COVID cases in the state would likely help Biden more than anything. And given high levels of voter enthusiasm/election turnout we have seen in the Trump era, it seems foolish to expect this election to be significantly lower on people's priority list than in years past.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

The media punditry needs a horserace narrative and, whether he admits it or not, Charlie Cook is a media pundit.

[republican1993]

I'd like to see some polls in Nevada i still see this leaning Biden at the moment but might be closer if the race tightens up by October with Trump doing better with Latinos (also depends how much dems bag in early voting)

[Landslide Lyndon]

OMFG, they just can't let Nevada go.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I'd like to see some polls in Nevada i still see this leaning Biden at the moment but might be closer if the race tightens up by October with Trump doing better with Latinos (also depends how much dems bag in early voting)

The race is unlikely to tighten up significantly. Also, Joe Biden is doing just fine with Latinos in the West (including Nevada).

Stop conflating Cuban-American voters in Florida with Mexican-American voters in Nevada. Nevada is Likely D.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the write-up is weird. How is the pandemic being really bad in Nevada supposed to hurt... Biden?

[Brandern]

Cook is always a lagging indicator, scared of projecting Democrat wins as far as I am concerned, along with the very misnamed "Crystal Ball".

[Minnesota Mike]

Don't like it but I agree with both these changes. Florida is obvious, it's the quintessential toss up state. Nevada really is overrated by this board as to how safe it is for Democrats. Low number of college graduates, Biden not doing quite as well as Clinton with Hispanics, Republicans making small gains in voter registration, challenges for the Culinary Union turning out members in the age of Covid. I don't think it will but IMHO it is the most likely of the Clinton states to flip to Trump.

[JRP1994]

Look it's not unreasonable to say Nevada is Lean D. It's on the border between lean and likely for me. Biden probably wins it 7 or 8 times out of 10, but if he does wind up running behind HRC among Hispanic voters, it could flip if Trump's overall national position improves. In fact, Trump's probably likely to gain ground faster in Nevada relative to the nation, because it's above-average elasticity and has a lot of non-college whites

[wbrocks67]

FL appears to be the only place where Biden may be underperforming with Hispanics. Seems like he's doing just fine in AZ/CA

[Rep Jessica]

Minnesota will vote Trump before Nevada will.

[Buzz]

They should have changed Nevada to likely D and Florida to Lean R

[SenatorCouzens]

The Larry Sabato group was also talking about increased competitiveness in Nevada today. They focused on the Reid machine and its dependence on in-person activity and a robust casino worker crowd to get its vote out. I don't know enough about Nevada politics to know whether this is a valid theory for a tightening race there though?

[ChrisMcDanielWasRobbed]

TRUMP WILL WIN NEVADA!

[Indy Texas]

t i g h t e n i n g

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Yeah, the write-up is weird. How is the pandemic being really bad in Nevada supposed to hurt... Biden?

It'd be like saying Obama was DOA in 2008 because Nevada was particularly hit hard by the recession

[ProgressiveModerate]

I see the case for a lean D NV but their reasoning here is really dumb. I think NV will likely trend slightly to the right for several reasons (Biden polling better with higher income compared to Trump polling better with lower income voters relative to past cycles, the fact that Trump is doing better with those with lower education levels, ect).

[republican1993]

I'd like to see some polls in Nevada i still see this leaning Biden at the moment but might be closer if the race tightens up by October with Trump doing better with Latinos (also depends how much dems bag in early voting)

The race is unlikely to tighten up significantly. Also, Joe Biden is doing just fine with Latinos in the West (including Nevada).

Stop conflating Cuban-American voters in Florida with Mexican-American voters in Nevada. Nevada is Likely D.

I agree with you here, i don't think trump has a chance but like i said if the race tightens i can see it being a 2-3 point race

[Non Swing Voter]

what is with this idea that Nevada is safe Democrat?  Hillary barely won it and she was popular among hispanics.  Also, there have been mass layoffs in Las Vegas so who knows how many people even live there right now.

[YE]

what is with this idea that Nevada is safe Democrat?  Hillary barely won it and she was popular among hispanics.  Also, there have been mass layoffs in Las Vegas so who knows how many people even live there right now.

What does that even mean? That despite eviction and foreclosure moratoriums as well as the fact that we are in a pandemic, thousands of people are fleeing the city? And you think mass layoffs would hurt Biden?

[YE]

Look it's not unreasonable to say Nevada is Lean D. It's on the border between lean and likely for me. Biden probably wins it 7 or 8 times out of 10, but if he does wind up running behind HRC among Hispanic voters, it could flip if Trump's overall national position improves. In fact, Trump's probably likely to gain ground faster in Nevada relative to the nation, because it's above-average elasticity and has a lot of non-college whites

If Biden is doing worse than HRC with Hispanics, its probably with more assimilated types, and/or rural Hispanics, and/or due to low turnout. Harder for me to imagine that being terribly problematic in an urban machine dominated metro.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

My takeaway from all of this:

Before the RNC the electoral race was likely Biden.
After the RNC the electoral race is likely Biden, but Biden might not win Florida.

Engaging "panic mode." "Panic mode" on.

[Dr. Arch]

My takeaway from all of this:

Before the RNC the electoral race was likely Biden.
After the RNC the electoral race is likely Biden, but Biden might not win Florida.

Engaging "panic mode." "Panic mode" on.

So, nothing changed. FL was never going to be more than 3 points either way. Biden would have to win by a ridiculous amount (>+12) to break that ceiling in FL.