PA-NBC/Marist: Biden +9
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  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  PA-NBC/Marist: Biden +9
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Author Topic: PA-NBC/Marist: Biden +9  (Read 2809 times)
VAR
VARepublican
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« on: September 09, 2020, 04:12:12 AM »
« edited: September 09, 2020, 04:15:33 AM by VARepublican »

Aug 31-Sep 7, 771 LV, MoE: 4.4%

Biden 53%
Trump 44%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_PA-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_202009081145.pdf

Trump approval: 45/52 (-7)
Wolf approval: 54/39 (+15)

Favorabilities:
Trump 44/54 (-10)
Biden 50/46 (+4)
Pence 46/47 (-1)
Harris 47/43 (+4)
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Your False god Won't Save You
DaleCooper
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« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2020, 04:12:50 AM »

Whoops! So much for that day of panic. Back to Minnesota.
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MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
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« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2020, 04:15:22 AM »

Now watch Atlas do a 180 on PA and claim that itís the MOST likely state of the four (MN/WI/PA/MI) to vote for Biden and that they never doubted it lol. The overreactions are hilariously predictable.
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Horus
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« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2020, 04:19:26 AM »

Biden and Trump even with white voters, if that holds Trump is in serious trouble.
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VAR
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« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2020, 04:19:44 AM »

Philadelphia: Biden 82-15 (+67)
Philadelphia suburbs: Biden 62-34 (+28)
Northeast: Trump 53-43 (+10)
Central: Trump 50-48 (+2)
West: Trump 54-43 (+11)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2020, 04:20:17 AM »

Hmm, maybe PA isn't really as close as that Susquehanna poll said yesterday. It might as well be the state with the largest margin for Biden (among WI, MI, PA and MN) after all ... it was already quite obvious during the primary.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2020, 04:21:02 AM »

Whoops! So much for that day of panic. Back to Minnesota.

Nah man, being panicked about Florida is the new trend.
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WD
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« Reply #7 on: September 09, 2020, 04:23:22 AM »

Whoops! So much for that day of panic. Back to Minnesota.

Nah man, being panicked about Florida is the new trend.

Just wait until a Biden+2 poll comes out from MI.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2020, 04:29:43 AM »

Rasmussen has corrupted me so badly that I half-expected to see Evers' approval rating in this poll.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #9 on: September 09, 2020, 04:32:47 AM »
« Edited: September 09, 2020, 04:36:05 AM by Monstro »

Now watch Atlas do a 180 on PA and claim that itís the MOST likely state of the four (MN/WI/PA/MI) to vote for Biden and that they never doubted it lol. The overreactions are hilariously predictable.

I'm awaiting the folks that'll attempt to twist themselves into knots explaining why we should trust the NBC/Marist FL poll but not this NBC/Marist PA poll.

We do have precedent with Trafalgar polls of MI/WI (And no other states!!!)
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2020, 04:35:53 AM »

Hot take.
Neither Florida is tied, nor Pennsylvania is +9 for Biden. If I had to guess I'd say Florida is +3-4 and Pennsylvania is +5-6.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2020, 04:38:46 AM »

Atlas concern trolls strike again...

Still obviously, just one poll...

Same time, believe there is a quote from the "Art of War" to the effect that: "The best defense is a good offense"...

Biden Air-War and Ground-War appear to be placing Biden in extremely strong position within the relatively static nature of the race since COVID-19 / Wrapping up of DEM Primaries...

Team Biden needs to continue going on the "Big O" within the 4th quarter and press Team Trump on multiple fronts with shrinking time on the clock...

Nothing wrong with continuing to press Trump on defense in TX, GA, NC, FL, & AZ....

Wanna go all in?

Enough dough play hard for IA & OH (Latter has Media Market overlaps with MI and PA--- so bit of a safety--- not to mention the Midwest Senior voters in the I-4 Corridor of FL who got friends & family back home in the Snowbelt)
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Reapsow
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« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2020, 04:45:09 AM »

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: September 09, 2020, 05:01:29 AM »

Should we be worried though that Marist is still not weighting by education?

However, this lines up with Q-pac and again, we've had a good amount of Biden 6-9 PA polling.

I don't know if Biden is actually up by 9, but it's clear that Rasmussen and Susquehanna were junk.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #14 on: September 09, 2020, 05:02:29 AM »
« Edited: September 09, 2020, 05:07:04 AM by #TheShadowyAbyss »

Should we be worried though that Marist is still not weighting by education?

However, this lines up with Q-pac and again, we've had a good amount of Biden 6-9 PA polling.

I don't know if Biden is actually up by 9, but it's clear that Rasmussen and Susquehanna were junk.

Philadelphia: Biden 82-15 (+67)
Philadelphia suburbs: Biden 62-34 (+28)
Northeast: Trump 53-43 (+10)
Central: Trump 50-48 (+2)
West: Trump 54-43 (+11)

2016 exits were:
Philadelphia: Clinton 83-15 (Clinton +68)
Philly suburbs: Clinton 55-42 (Clinton +13)
Northeast: Trump 55-42 (Trump +13)
Central: Trump 62-34 (Trump  +28)
West: Trump 54-42 (Trump +12
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: September 09, 2020, 05:03:10 AM »

Now watch Atlas do a 180 on PA and claim that itís the MOST likely state of the four (MN/WI/PA/MI) to vote for Biden and that they never doubted it lol. The overreactions are hilariously predictable.

I'm awaiting the folks that'll attempt to twist themselves into knots explaining why we should trust the NBC/Marist FL poll but not this NBC/Marist PA poll.

We do have precedent with Trafalgar polls of MI/WI (And no other states!!!)

Well to be fair, there is nothing in these crosstabs that looks out of sync, unlike the FL result (<45 year olds + Hispanics)
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #16 on: September 09, 2020, 05:07:20 AM »

Should we be worried though that Marist is still not weighting by education?

However, this lines up with Q-pac and again, we've had a good amount of Biden 6-9 PA polling.

I don't know if Biden is actually up by 9, but it's clear that Rasmussen and Susquehanna were junk.

education was 57% no degree, 43% college degree

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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #17 on: September 09, 2020, 05:11:34 AM »

Hot take.
Neither Florida is tied, nor Pennsylvania is +9 for Biden. If I had to guess I'd say Florida is +3-4 and Pennsylvania is +5-6.

Shhhh!
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afleitch
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« Reply #18 on: September 09, 2020, 05:12:46 AM »

Should we be worried though that Marist is still not weighting by education?

However, this lines up with Q-pac and again, we've had a good amount of Biden 6-9 PA polling.

I don't know if Biden is actually up by 9, but it's clear that Rasmussen and Susquehanna were junk.

Philadelphia: Biden 82-15 (+67)
Philadelphia suburbs: Biden 62-34 (+28)
Northeast: Trump 53-43 (+10)
Central: Trump 50-48 (+2)
West: Trump 54-43 (+11)

2016 exits were:
Philadelphia: Clinton 83-15 (Clinton +68)
Philly suburbs: Clinton 55-42 (Clinton +13)
Northeast: Trump 55-42 (Trump +13)
Central: Trump 62-34 (Trump  +28)
West: Trump 54-42 (Trump +12


So big swings in the Philly suburbs and Central PA. Rest of the state is static.
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VAR
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« Reply #19 on: September 09, 2020, 05:27:20 AM »

Hot take.
Neither Florida is tied, nor Pennsylvania is +9 for Biden. If I had to guess I'd say Florida is +3-4 and Pennsylvania is +5-6.

Not a hot take at all.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #20 on: September 09, 2020, 05:35:07 AM »

Hot take.
Neither Florida is tied, nor Pennsylvania is +9 for Biden. If I had to guess I'd say Florida is +3-4 and Pennsylvania is +5-6.
This sounds about right to me.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #21 on: September 09, 2020, 05:51:20 AM »

No way that Central PA has swung like that, but it's a crosstab, so we'll forgive it.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #22 on: September 09, 2020, 06:07:52 AM »

Now watch Atlas do a 180 on PA and claim that itís the MOST likely state of the four (MN/WI/PA/MI) to vote for Biden and that they never doubted it lol. The overreactions are hilariously predictable.

Rs are the ones keep putting up 270 Trump maps showing Trump winning PA and losing AZ and winning the EC college narrowly, Ds never doubted PA Dem trends since Tom Wolf won by 17, Hillary and McGinty were bad fits for the state of PA
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #23 on: September 09, 2020, 06:13:45 AM »

Should we be worried though that Marist is still not weighting by education?

However, this lines up with Q-pac and again, we've had a good amount of Biden 6-9 PA polling.

I don't know if Biden is actually up by 9, but it's clear that Rasmussen and Susquehanna were junk.

education was 57% no degree, 43% college degree



2018 exits were 62 no degree/38 degree, so this isnít too bad.
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Georgia Democrat in 2023
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« Reply #24 on: September 09, 2020, 06:20:00 AM »

Biden/Harris are handling the Rust Belt trifecta well--paying serious attention to PA, MI, and WI at this stage of the race.
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