Quinnipiac: Biden +8 in PA, +3 in FL

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

What's up with the Latino vote in Florida? Trump being up 2 is....funny - to say the least.

[wbrocks67]

If Biden's advantage with elderly voters in FL is accurate then I could see him over-performing his polling average here because I doubt that he's performing that poorly with hispanic voters, even if he does underperform Hillary. That said, if his advantage with older voters is a mirage, then he's in trouble here but that doesn't seem the case since he's been leading consistently for months.

Yeah, I was wondering if Biden's strength among seniors was a mirage at first, but it appears to have held out basically this entire summer. Seeing 3 PA polls with him in double digits with Seniors in PA is pretty striking, and most polls seem to be showing this.

[wbrocks67]

What's up with the Latino vote in Florida? Trump being up 2 is....funny - to say the least.

I think Q-pac is just weird with Hispanic sample. Even with their national poll it has jumped around, as high as +26 and as low as +7. Kind of seesaws back and forth.

9/2: Biden +20
7/15: Biden +10
6/18: Biden +26
5/20: Biden +7
4/8: Biden +20

[WD]

What's up with the Latino vote in Florida? Trump being up 2 is....funny - to say the least.

I think Q-pac is just weird with Hispanic sample. Even with their national poll it has jumped around, as high as +26 and as low as +7. Kind of seesaws back and forth.

9/2: Biden +20
7/15: Biden +10
6/18: Biden +26
5/20: Biden +7
4/8: Biden +20

Latinos are generally just hard to poll. Thats why polls in places like TX-23 and CA-21 really underestimated Democrats in 2018

[Virginiá]

Yeah, I was wondering if Biden's strength among seniors was a mirage at first, but it appears to have held out basically this entire summer. Seeing 3 PA polls with him in double digits with Seniors in PA is pretty striking, and most polls seem to be showing this.

bit curious if that support would hold up in 2022 under a Biden presidency, like some of Trump's demographic inroads did. Probably not, but still. It would be a net positive when combined with the Democratic coalition's large influx of high turnout white college grads.

[Skill and Chance]

Great for Biden in Pennsylvania, not so great in Florida.

[Dr. Arch]

Great for Biden in Pennsylvania, not so great in Florida.

Florida will be Florida. It is very inflexible, and it always comes down to the lower single digits in the current political paradigm, regardless of national margins. FL was only D+2 in 2008 with Obama's NPV win of +8.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Worth nothing that if just these two states flip and nothing else, Biden wins the presidency.

[President Johnson]

I think Joe Biden will win both states, but each by closer margin than found in these polls. Florida crosstabs with Hispanics seems off, even Bill Nelson won them.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Worth nothing that if just these two states flip and nothing else, Biden wins the presidency.

A 2016 hold + MI + PA puts him two short (without considering AZ, NC, or WI).  For all intents and purposes whoever wins PA is likely in line to win the Presidency. 

[ProudModerate2]

I think the numbers for both states, look to be spot-on (for the current situation).
Maybe slightly lower for Biden in PA, though.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[oriass16]

I still remember back in 2018 just before the midterms election similar kind of suppression polls coming out, Quinnipiac was D+ 7 and desantis won. I still believe trump has a decent chance of winning florida with the panhandle votes coming at the end of the night putting him over the top.

[republican1993]

Crosstabs show trump winning Hispanics in Florida.Interesting

this assumption kind of goes with the fact Trump will get in the 30s with hispanics... very astounding to me.

[Rand]

Biden is continuing to underperform in Pennsylvania.

[wbrocks67]

How do these people get paid for this? Why is Wasserman such a hack?

He thinks its "pretty plausible" that Biden is losing Hispanics in FL, despite the fact that its a complete outlier and Biden was up by 17 in their last Florida poll and Nelson/Gillum won them by nearly 10% in 2018.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1301630692489654273

[Progressive Pessimist]

Either Quinnipiac changed the way they polled Florida or Biden is absolutely doomed here given their 2018 track record. Still though, it's unlikely that anybody is winning Florida by more than 1% or so, as usual.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I have done a little bit of math and I have come up with the following approximations for PA:

Election day: 57-43 Trump
Absentee: 80-20 Biden
(of the two party vote)

Unless Pennsylvania speeds up its absentee ballot counting Trump most certainly leads here on the Wednesday morning

People are going to be going crazy if Biden is winning AZ, NC and FL but losing PA on election night.

[MassTerp94]

Quinnipiac was one of, if not the most accurate poll in 2016, and even had Trump winning in the summer. Assuming they have retained or improved their methodology, Trump is toast.

[Hammy]

Clear outlier for Pennsylvania..

Morning Call/Muhlenberg, Monmouth and Rasmussen have all shown the race is within 3-4 points.

Once again, disregard the margins and look at Biden's percentage. Biden getting 52 would be a +4 victory in the end.

It's very much in line with the rest of the polls.

[Red Wall]

Outstanding Florida number for Trump considering its Quinnipiac.  They still think Gillum won in a landslide lolz

And pre-labor day. The retirees are coming back from their home states next week which means trump numbers are underestimated.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Outstanding Florida number for Trump considering its Quinnipiac.  They still think Gillum won in a landslide lolz

And pre-labor day. The retirees are coming back from their home states next week which means trump numbers are underestimated.

You do realize that Biden is leading among seniors in the majority of polls?