Quinnipiac: Biden +8 in PA, +3 in FL

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PA-

Biden: 52%
Trump: 44%

FL-

Biden: 48%
Trump: 45%

Likely Voters

https://t.co/N0yNnvsVxA?amp=1

[wbrocks67]

Honestly both of these look about exactly right.

Also: this PA sample has **3x** the amount of respondents as Monmouth.

[Tender Branson]

Cool, if true.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is going D

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Clear outlier for Pennsylvania..

Morning Call/Muhlenberg, Monmouth and Rasmussen have all shown the race is within 3-4 points.

[wbrocks67]

The last time Quinnipiac polled Pennsylvania was in February and they also had the race at Biden +8.

[Gass3268]

Biden is +10 with seniors in Florida, but losing Hispanics by 2. If that's the case Palm Beach County will be to the left of Miami-Dade.

[wbrocks67]

Clear outlier for Pennsylvania..

Morning Call, Monmouth and Rasmussen have all shown the race is within 3-4 points.

Not really. Other recent polls of PA:

Morning Consult: +4, +6
Civiqs: +7
GQR: +9
GSG: +8, +10
Franklin and Marshall: +7
Redfield/Wilton: +7

[Buzz]

Outstanding Florida number for Trump considering its Quinnipiac.  They still think Gillum won in a landslide lolz

[wbrocks67]

Biden is +10 with seniors in Florida, but losing Hispanics by 2. If that's the case Palm Beach County will be to the left of Miami-Dade.

Q-pac tends to have weird Hispanic samples. They only had Biden up by 20 nationally yesterday and before that it was in the 30s and before that it was only 10.

[SaneDemocrat]

Crosstabs show trump winning Hispanics in Florida.Interesting

[WD]

Looks about right. PA is Lean D, closer to Likely than tossup. FL will be close, but advantage Biden.

[wbrocks67]

One common theme among the two Monmouth polls of PA AND this one: Biden is winning seniors by double digits in all 3. If that's the case, then it's game over for Trump in PA.

[Gass3268]

Outstanding Florida number for Trump considering its Quinnipiac.  They still think Gillum won in a landslide lolz

Maybe they made adjustments? Who knows. Also this involves a switch to the LV screen.

Florida is going to be close either way.

[YE]

I have too high expectations this election and going to be underwhelmed if/when Biden wins by like only 6-8 nationally.

[wbrocks67]

Crosstabs show trump winning Hispanics in Florida.Interesting

I would also add that Q-Pac appears to have nonwhites weird samples in general.. even in the PA poll, they have Trump at nearly 30% of nonwhites, when he in 2016 and Barletta in 2018 both only won 16% of nonwhites.

[DaleCooper]

Rasmussen was just rounding down.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The last time Quinnipiac polled Pennsylvania was in February and they also had the race at Biden +8.

Their last polls for both FL and PA were for RVs, not LVs. I'd advise against reading too far into trends when there's a change in the methodology as significant as that.

August 28 - September 1, 2020

FL
1235 likely voters
MoE: 2.8%

Biden 48%
Trump 45%
Someone else 1%
Don't know/no answer 5%

PA
1107 likely voters
MoE: 3%

Biden 52%
Trump 44%
Someone else 1%
Don't know/no answer 3%

[kph14]

I have done a little bit of math and I have come up with the following approximations for PA:

Election day: 57-43 Trump
Absentee: 80-20 Biden
(of the two party vote)

Unless Pennsylvania speeds up its absentee ballot counting Trump most certainly leads here on the Wednesday morning

[DaleCooper]

If Biden's advantage with elderly voters in FL is accurate then I could see him over-performing his polling average here because I doubt that he's performing that poorly with hispanic voters, even if he does underperform Hillary. That said, if his advantage with older voters is a mirage, then he's in trouble here but that doesn't seem the case since he's been leading consistently for months.

[VAR]

FL favorabilities:

Biden: 41/46
Trump: 44/49

PA favorabilities:

Biden: 46/45
Trump 41/55

DeSantis approval: 45/45
Wolf approval: 55/38

Scott approval: 42/40
Rubio approval: 47/38
Casey approval: 48/28
Toomey approval: 36/42

FL Trump approval: 46/50
PA Trump approval: 43/54

[Crumpets]

[Reeeee of approval]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clear outlier for Pennsylvania..

Morning Call/Muhlenberg, Monmouth and Rasmussen have all shown the race is within 3-4 points.

Take a look at www.electionprojection.com, they have a blue wave developing and they aren't a liberal website, and they have Biden winining the election

[ElectionWatcher25]

Florida was always going to be a toss-up. It's always close.

[DrScholl]

Clear outlier for Pennsylvania..

Morning Call/Muhlenberg, Monmouth and Rasmussen have all shown the race is within 3-4 points.

Trump is still behind in those polls so it's not like they are really much better for him. Trailing is trailing.