NC-Monmouth: Cunningham +1 (user search)
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  NC-Monmouth: Cunningham +1 (search mode)
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Author Topic: NC-Monmouth: Cunningham +1  (Read 972 times)
Yoda
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,168
United States


« on: September 03, 2020, 12:05:21 PM »

Did people really believe that this race wasn’t going to track closely with the presidential race and that Cunningham was gonna win by Kay Hagan ‘08 margins? Problem for dems here is that I think in both ‘14 and ‘16 Tillis and Burr outran their polling.

Agreed.  I get that Tillis is a bland, uninspiring incumbent, but this is still North Carolina we're talking about: Obama won Indiana by over three times the margin he won there in 2008.  

It's partly why I endorse Biden putting a good amount of money and resources into the state, but NOT having it as a linchpin of his path to 270.  

This is the same poll that claims that Joe Biden is only carrying 67% of the black vote, and trump is carrying 27%(!) so let's not get ahead of ourselves, especially when recent high quality pollsters have had Cunningham's lead much higher. Biden will very, very likely carry ~95% of the black vote against trump, so it's far more likely that this is an outlier. Or just a bad poll.
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Yoda
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,168
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2020, 10:46:03 PM »

Did people really believe that this race wasn’t going to track closely with the presidential race and that Cunningham was gonna win by Kay Hagan ‘08 margins? Problem for dems here is that I think in both ‘14 and ‘16 Tillis and Burr outran their polling.

Agreed.  I get that Tillis is a bland, uninspiring incumbent, but this is still North Carolina we're talking about: Obama won Indiana by over three times the margin he won there in 2008.  

It's partly why I endorse Biden putting a good amount of money and resources into the state, but NOT having it as a linchpin of his path to 270.  

This is the same poll that claims that Joe Biden is only carrying 67% of the black vote, and trump is carrying 27%(!) so let's not get ahead of ourselves, especially when recent high quality pollsters have had Cunningham's lead much higher. Biden will very, very likely carry ~95% of the black vote against trump, so it's far more likely that this is an outlier. Or just a bad poll.

Biden 46%
Trump 46%

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/pennsylvania_trump_46_biden_46

Quote
Worrisome for the former vice president is his 67% black support, low for a Democrat, with the incumbent earning 27% of the black vote in Pennsylvania. Trump leads among whites and other minority voters.


Ah, my bad. But the PA poll is definitely trash....I doubt the same firm's NC poll fell very far from the tree.
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