NC-Monmouth: Cunningham +1

[MT Treasurer]

46% Cal Cunningham (D)
45% Thom Tillis (R, inc.)

https://twitter.com/monmouthpoll/status/1301535587388854272

Also has Biden ahead by 2.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

August 29-September 1, 2020
401 registered voters (401 voters accounted for in each likely voter model)
MoE: 4.9%

Toplines supplied here with leaners.

Among registered voters:
Cunningham 46
Tillis 45%
(Bray (L) 2%, Hayes (C) 1%, Other candidate <1%) = Other 3%
No one 1%
Undecided 5%

Among likely voters (model w/ higher turnout than 2016):
Cunningham 47%
Tillis 45%
Other 4%
Undecided 4%

Among likely voters (model w/ lower turnout than 2016):
Cunningham 46%
Tillis 46%
Other 4%
Undecided 4%

[Gracile]

It's helpful for Tillis that he is not underperforming Trump by a massive amount like he was before, though given the closeness at the presidential level this race is far from over.

[tjstarling]

Did people really believe that this race wasn’t going to track closely with the presidential race and that Cunningham was gonna win by Kay Hagan ‘08 margins? Problem for dems here is that I think in both ‘14 and ‘16 Tillis and Burr outran their polling.

[Xing]

Might be time to move this back to a Toss-Up, but we'll see if this moves more in Tillis's favor.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Did people really believe that this race wasn’t going to track closely with the presidential race and that Cunningham was gonna win by Kay Hagan ‘08 margins? Problem for dems here is that I think in both ‘14 and ‘16 Tillis and Burr outran their polling.

Agreed.  I get that Tillis is a bland, uninspiring incumbent, but this is still North Carolina we're talking about: Obama won Indiana by over three times the margin he won there in 2008.  

It's partly why I endorse Biden putting a good amount of money and resources into the state, but NOT having it as a linchpin of his path to 270.  

[Landslide Lyndon]

This is the first poll in a long time to show Cunningham underperforming Biden.
And this is also the first poll ever to show Tillis hitting 45%. Considering that Fox was on the ground the same dates I'll wait for more data to see if Monmouth is up to something or it's just a blip.

[WD]

This is the first poll in a long time to show Cunningham underperforming Biden.
And this is also the first poll ever to show Tillis hitting 45%. Considering that Fox was on the ground the same dates I'll wait for more data to see if Monmouth is up to something or it's just a blip.

Almost every other poll shows Cunningham up by mid single digits, so its possible that this is an outlier, but we’ll see.

[SnowLabrador]

This is the first poll in a long time to show Cunningham underperforming Biden.
And this is also the first poll ever to show Tillis hitting 45%. Considering that Fox was on the ground the same dates I'll wait for more data to see if Monmouth is up to something or it's just a blip.

Almost every other poll shows Cunningham up by mid single digits, so its possible that this is an outlier, but well see.

Polling in NC has tended to underestimate the GOP in recent cycles. Tossup, slight Tilt R.

[Yoda]

Did people really believe that this race wasn’t going to track closely with the presidential race and that Cunningham was gonna win by Kay Hagan ‘08 margins? Problem for dems here is that I think in both ‘14 and ‘16 Tillis and Burr outran their polling.

Agreed.  I get that Tillis is a bland, uninspiring incumbent, but this is still North Carolina we're talking about: Obama won Indiana by over three times the margin he won there in 2008.  

It's partly why I endorse Biden putting a good amount of money and resources into the state, but NOT having it as a linchpin of his path to 270.  

This is the same poll that claims that Joe Biden is only carrying 67% of the black vote, and trump is carrying 27%(!) so let's not get ahead of ourselves, especially when recent high quality pollsters have had Cunningham's lead much higher. Biden will very, very likely carry ~95% of the black vote against trump, so it's far more likely that this is an outlier. Or just a bad poll.

[We Live in Black and White]

This is the first poll in a long time to show Cunningham underperforming Biden.
And this is also the first poll ever to show Tillis hitting 45%. Considering that Fox was on the ground the same dates I'll wait for more data to see if Monmouth is up to something or it's just a blip.

Almost every other poll shows Cunningham up by mid single digits, so its possible that this is an outlier, but well see.

Polling in NC has tended to underestimate the GOP in recent cycles. Tossup, slight Tilt R.

Of course you think that.

[VAR]

Did people really believe that this race wasn’t going to track closely with the presidential race and that Cunningham was gonna win by Kay Hagan ‘08 margins? Problem for dems here is that I think in both ‘14 and ‘16 Tillis and Burr outran their polling.

Agreed.  I get that Tillis is a bland, uninspiring incumbent, but this is still North Carolina we're talking about: Obama won Indiana by over three times the margin he won there in 2008.  

It's partly why I endorse Biden putting a good amount of money and resources into the state, but NOT having it as a linchpin of his path to 270.  

This is the same poll that claims that Joe Biden is only carrying 67% of the black vote, and trump is carrying 27%(!) so let's not get ahead of ourselves, especially when recent high quality pollsters have had Cunningham's lead much higher. Biden will very, very likely carry ~95% of the black vote against trump, so it's far more likely that this is an outlier. Or just a bad poll.

Biden 46%
Trump 46%

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/pennsylvania_trump_46_biden_46

Worrisome for the former vice president is his 67% black support, low for a Democrat, with the incumbent earning 27% of the black vote in Pennsylvania. Trump leads among whites and other minority voters.

[Yoda]

Did people really believe that this race wasn’t going to track closely with the presidential race and that Cunningham was gonna win by Kay Hagan ‘08 margins? Problem for dems here is that I think in both ‘14 and ‘16 Tillis and Burr outran their polling.

Agreed.  I get that Tillis is a bland, uninspiring incumbent, but this is still North Carolina we're talking about: Obama won Indiana by over three times the margin he won there in 2008.  

It's partly why I endorse Biden putting a good amount of money and resources into the state, but NOT having it as a linchpin of his path to 270.  

This is the same poll that claims that Joe Biden is only carrying 67% of the black vote, and trump is carrying 27%(!) so let's not get ahead of ourselves, especially when recent high quality pollsters have had Cunningham's lead much higher. Biden will very, very likely carry ~95% of the black vote against trump, so it's far more likely that this is an outlier. Or just a bad poll.

Biden 46%
Trump 46%

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/pennsylvania_trump_46_biden_46

Worrisome for the former vice president is his 67% black support, low for a Democrat, with the incumbent earning 27% of the black vote in Pennsylvania. Trump leads among whites and other minority voters.

Ah, my bad. But the PA poll is definitely trash....I doubt the same firm's NC poll fell very far from the tree.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Monmouth University on 2020-09-01

Summary: D: 46%, R: 45%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details