PA (Rasmussen/Pulse): Tie

[VAR]

Biden 46%
Trump 46%

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/pennsylvania_trump_46_biden_46

Worrisome for the former vice president is his 67% black support, low for a Democrat, with the incumbent earning 27% of the black vote in Pennsylvania. Trump leads among whites and other minority voters.

LOL

[neostassenite31]

It's back

[New York En Marche!]

Really don't think it would be tied if Trump somehow managed to win 27% of the black vote.

[neostassenite31]

For a second I thought this was Trafalgar

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

whites and other minority voters

Does this mean whites AND other minority voters separately  or taking both whites and non-black voters combined?

[Buzz]

PA is lean D but it’s definitely more competitive than many here want to believe.

[Sbane]

Trump still can't crack 46%...in Pennsylvania. Sad!

[forza nocta]

Thank you Rass, very cool!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

August 25-27, 2020
1000 likely voters
MoE: 3%
 
Changes with July 15-16 poll.

Biden 46% (-5%)
Trump 46% (n/c)
Some other candidate 4% (+2%)
Undecided 4% (+3%)

[Skill and Chance]

I don't think this poll is right, but I do think there is mounting evidence that PA is not going to be part of Biden's easiest path to 270, and that a generic Dem with no ties to the state would be struggling even more than Biden.

[afleitch]

So polling was during the RNC.

[DaleCooper]

whites and other minority voters

Does this mean whites AND other minority voters separately  or taking both whites and non-black voters combined?

The magic of Rasmussen is that it can mean whatever anyone wants it to mean.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think this poll is right, but I do think there is mounting evidence that PA is not going to be part of Biden's easiest path to 270, and that a generic Dem with no ties to the state would be struggling even more than Biden.

You still think Biden is gonna lose PA, after it only went 1 x R in a generation against Hillary and Kate McGinty, its a Lean D state.  Wolf won by 17 pts and Biden is gonna rack up Early Voting and VBM, and Trump is only gonna win In person voting

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Its a Rassy poll, not PPP poll

[Buzz]

I don't think this poll is right, but I do think there is mounting evidence that PA is not going to be part of Biden's easiest path to 270, and that a generic Dem with no ties to the state would be struggling even more than Biden.

You still think Biden is gonna lose PA, after it only went 1 x R in a generation against Hillary and Kate McGinty, its a Lean D state.  Wolf won by 17 pts and Biden is gonna rack up Early Voting and VBM, and Trump is only gonna win In person voting

Pennsylvania doesn’t early vote....

[New York En Marche!]

I don't think this poll is right, but I do think there is mounting evidence that PA is not going to be part of Biden's easiest path to 270, and that a generic Dem with no ties to the state would be struggling even more than Biden.

Yeah, I don't understand it, but there enough evidence to convince me that it's harder than we all thought. At least Trump's not leading anywhere, even in this poll, and I still think Biden will win it.

[Chips]

I don't necessarily think Biden and Trump are even but I do definitely think the state is competitive. Biden+2 for now.

[wbrocks67]

> Taken during the RNC
> Rasmussen
> Trump can't even pull ahead
> Has Trump winning nearly 30% of the black vote and still only tied

These trash polls are gonna be the end of us.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Just for kicks, I looked up what the AA vote was for PA on 2016.

Per the CNN Exit Poll, Clinton won AA's 92-7.  What would have made the environment swing +23 points in Trump's favor here?

[wbrocks67]

Just for kicks, I looked up what the AA vote was for PA on 2016.

Per the CNN Exit Poll, Clinton won AA's 92-7.  What would have made the environment swing +23 points in Trump's favor here?

Yep, and in 2018 it was 8%. So if this only has the two tied while up nearly 30% with blacks, then it's actually a pretty horrific poll for Trump.

[roxas11]

I was about to give the poll a more serious response until I read the detail's lol


So according to this Poll Joe Biden is winning senior voters.....
 
lets be very clear about this if that ends up being remotely true on election day
Trump is doomed and PA will not be close at all. trump overwhelmingly won seniors in 2016 and if he is losing them to Biden in 2020 that is very bad news for him

The poll also claim trump is winning 27 percent of the black vote
well as a Black voter I have yet to see 1 friend or family member come up to me and say they Now  suddenly like trump and will vote for him in the upcoming election lol. In fact I here nothing but bad things about him every time his name even comes up in a conversation.

If there was a sizable shift towards Trump in the black community as this poll claims I have seen no evidence of it in real life.

[wbrocks67]

I was about to give the poll a more serious response until I read the detail's lol


So according to this Poll Joe Biden is winning senior voters.....
 
lets be very clear about this if that ends up being remotely true on election day
Trump is doomed and PA will not be close at all. trump overwhelmingly won seniors in 2016 and if he is losing them to Biden in 2020 that is very bad news for him

The poll also claim trump is winning 27 percent of the black vote
well as a Black voter I have yet to see 1 friend or family member come up to me and say they Now  suddenly like trump and will vote for him in the upcoming election lol. In fact I here nothing but bad things about him every time his name even comes up in a conversation.

If there was a sizable shift towards Trump in the black community as this poll claims I have seen no evidence of it in real life.

What's funny is that Biden was also winning seniors in *both* the Monmouth polls of PA, too

[Person Man]

Do we actually have a single poll that shows him leading here?

[wbrocks67]

Do we actually have a single poll that shows him leading here?

Trump? No

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Do we actually have a single poll that shows him leading here?

Besides this poll, the last showing him ahead or at least even is from July 11-16 (a Spry Strategies/American Principles Project (R) poll projected Trump 48-Biden 47).

The last public poll to show him ahead was the Baldwin Wallace one from March 17-25: it projected Trump 47-Biden 45.