PA (Rasmussen/Pulse): Tie
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 25, 2024, 05:20:25 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  PA (Rasmussen/Pulse): Tie
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: PA (Rasmussen/Pulse): Tie  (Read 2411 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,755
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 03, 2020, 08:04:46 AM »

Biden 46%
Trump 46%

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/pennsylvania_trump_46_biden_46

Quote
Worrisome for the former vice president is his 67% black support, low for a Democrat, with the incumbent earning 27% of the black vote in Pennsylvania. Trump leads among whites and other minority voters.

LOL
Logged
neostassenite31
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 564
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2020, 08:06:49 AM »

It's back
Logged
New York En Marche!
amcrmcm
Rookie
**
Posts: 89


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2020, 08:06:57 AM »

Really don't think it would be tied if Trump somehow managed to win 27% of the black vote.
Logged
neostassenite31
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 564
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2020, 08:09:13 AM »

For a second I thought this was Trafalgar
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,401
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2020, 08:09:44 AM »

Quote
whites and other minority voters

Does this mean whites AND other minority voters separately  or taking both whites and non-black voters combined?
Logged
Buzz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,186


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 03, 2020, 08:11:33 AM »

PA is lean D but itís definitely more competitive than many here want to believe.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,307


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 03, 2020, 08:11:41 AM »

Trump still can't crack 46%...in Pennsylvania. Sad!
Logged
forza nocta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 614


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 03, 2020, 08:14:39 AM »

Thank you Rass, very cool!
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,776


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 03, 2020, 08:18:44 AM »

August 25-27, 2020
1000 likely voters
MoE: 3%
 
Changes with July 15-16 poll.

Biden 46% (-5%)
Trump 46% (n/c)
Some other candidate 4% (+2%)
Undecided 4% (+3%)
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,677
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 03, 2020, 08:19:18 AM »

I don't think this poll is right, but I do think there is mounting evidence that PA is not going to be part of Biden's easiest path to 270, and that a generic Dem with no ties to the state would be struggling even more than Biden.
Logged
afleitch
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,855


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 03, 2020, 08:20:38 AM »

So polling was during the RNC.
Logged
DaleCooper
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,027


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 03, 2020, 08:20:50 AM »

Quote
whites and other minority voters

Does this mean whites AND other minority voters separately  or taking both whites and non-black voters combined?

The magic of Rasmussen is that it can mean whatever anyone wants it to mean.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,681
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 03, 2020, 08:21:19 AM »

I don't think this poll is right, but I do think there is mounting evidence that PA is not going to be part of Biden's easiest path to 270, and that a generic Dem with no ties to the state would be struggling even more than Biden.

You still think Biden is gonna lose PA, after it only went 1 x R in a generation against Hillary and Kate McGinty, its a Lean D state.  Wolf won by 17 pts and Biden is gonna rack up Early Voting and VBM, and Trump is only gonna win In person voting
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,681
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 03, 2020, 08:22:13 AM »

Its a Rassy poll, not PPP poll
Logged
Buzz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,186


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 03, 2020, 08:24:04 AM »

I don't think this poll is right, but I do think there is mounting evidence that PA is not going to be part of Biden's easiest path to 270, and that a generic Dem with no ties to the state would be struggling even more than Biden.

You still think Biden is gonna lose PA, after it only went 1 x R in a generation against Hillary and Kate McGinty, its a Lean D state.  Wolf won by 17 pts and Biden is gonna rack up Early Voting and VBM, and Trump is only gonna win In person voting
Pennsylvania doesnít early vote....
Logged
New York En Marche!
amcrmcm
Rookie
**
Posts: 89


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 03, 2020, 08:27:04 AM »

I don't think this poll is right, but I do think there is mounting evidence that PA is not going to be part of Biden's easiest path to 270, and that a generic Dem with no ties to the state would be struggling even more than Biden.

Yeah, I don't understand it, but there enough evidence to convince me that it's harder than we all thought. At least Trump's not leading anywhere, even in this poll, and I still think Biden will win it.
Logged
Chips
Those Chips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,245
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 03, 2020, 08:28:19 AM »

I don't necessarily think Biden and Trump are even but I do definitely think the state is competitive. Biden+2 for now.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,198


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 03, 2020, 09:00:11 AM »

> Taken during the RNC
> Rasmussen
> Trump can't even pull ahead
> Has Trump winning nearly 30% of the black vote and still only tied

These trash polls are gonna be the end of us.
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,401
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 03, 2020, 09:05:45 AM »

Just for kicks, I looked up what the AA vote was for PA on 2016.

Per the CNN Exit Poll, Clinton won AA's 92-7.  What would have made the environment swing +23 points in Trump's favor here?
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,198


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 03, 2020, 09:06:50 AM »

Just for kicks, I looked up what the AA vote was for PA on 2016.

Per the CNN Exit Poll, Clinton won AA's 92-7.  What would have made the environment swing +23 points in Trump's favor here?


Yep, and in 2018 it was 8%. So if this only has the two tied while up nearly 30% with blacks, then it's actually a pretty horrific poll for Trump.
Logged
roxas11
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,800
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 03, 2020, 09:19:27 AM »

I was about to give the poll a more serious response until I read the detail's lol


So according to this Poll Joe Biden is winning senior voters.....
 
lets be very clear about this if that ends up being remotely true on election day
Trump is doomed and PA will not be close at all. trump overwhelmingly won seniors in 2016 and if he is losing them to Biden in 2020 that is very bad news for him

The poll also claim trump is winning 27 percent of the black vote
well as a Black voter I have yet to see 1 friend or family member come up to me and say they Now  suddenly like trump and will vote for him in the upcoming election lol. In fact I here nothing but bad things about him every time his name even comes up in a conversation.

If there was a sizable shift towards Trump in the black community as this poll claims I have seen no evidence of it in real life.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,198


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 03, 2020, 09:20:04 AM »

I was about to give the poll a more serious response until I read the detail's lol


So according to this Poll Joe Biden is winning senior voters.....
 
lets be very clear about this if that ends up being remotely true on election day
Trump is doomed and PA will not be close at all. trump overwhelmingly won seniors in 2016 and if he is losing them to Biden in 2020 that is very bad news for him

The poll also claim trump is winning 27 percent of the black vote
well as a Black voter I have yet to see 1 friend or family member come up to me and say they Now  suddenly like trump and will vote for him in the upcoming election lol. In fact I here nothing but bad things about him every time his name even comes up in a conversation.

If there was a sizable shift towards Trump in the black community as this poll claims I have seen no evidence of it in real life.

What's funny is that Biden was also winning seniors in *both* the Monmouth polls of PA, too
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,689
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 03, 2020, 09:25:44 AM »

Do we actually have a single poll that shows him leading here?
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,198


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: September 03, 2020, 09:25:57 AM »

Do we actually have a single poll that shows him leading here?

Trump? No
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,776


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: September 03, 2020, 09:28:31 AM »

Do we actually have a single poll that shows him leading here?

Besides this poll, the last showing him ahead or at least even is from July 11-16 (a Spry Strategies/American Principles Project (R) poll projected Trump 48-Biden 47).

The last public poll to show him ahead was the Baldwin Wallace one from March 17-25: it projected Trump 47-Biden 45.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.043 seconds with 13 queries.