2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[kph14]

The Iowa SOS has started to publish their absentee numbers today.

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2020/general/AbsenteeCongressional2020.pdf

545k requested ballots (roughly 35% of total 2016 turnout)
357k already sent

Numbers are surely high this early on but look still very managble for IA's system. In 2018, IA sent out 576k absentee ballots

[bilaps]

Unless we see something like 2mn democrats that have voted early in NC we will be able to learn nothing about the outcome of this election from NC numbers ever, let alone this early.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

ok actually there was a fairly large update today.  Over 150,000 people have voted in North Carolina.  When can we start extrapolating anything from this? I don't buy the Wasserman theory that early voting turnout doesn't matter.  Dems like Obama warned that the numbers in NC were weak and it preluded to crappy Dem turnout.  150,000 seems pretty good at this point but not sure what to compare it to.

That's like 4% of the 2018 turnout, 3% of the 2016 turnout.

Relax & be patient

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1308509644122402816

[Brittain33]

When can we start extrapolating anything from this? 

In 2016, extrapolating from NC and FL's early vote is literally what led some of us to believe Clinton had the election in the bag. We know that with a pandemic, we have nothing at all to compare it too. There is simply nothing to be done with this information.

[Non Swing Voter]

When can we start extrapolating anything from this? 

In 2016, extrapolating from NC and FL's early vote is literally what led some of us to believe Clinton had the election in the bag. We know that with a pandemic, we have nothing at all to compare it too. There is simply nothing to be done with this information.

I think the consensus was that the early vote numbers looked bad for Clinton in NC.  Black turnout was low.

FL - that's true, but I believe that was in large part to the MSNBC trolling of Trump about how Clinton had a huge lead there. 

[Bootes Void]

When can we start extrapolating anything from this? 

In 2016, extrapolating from NC and FL's early vote is literally what led some of us to believe Clinton had the election in the bag. We know that with a pandemic, we have nothing at all to compare it too. There is simply nothing to be done with this information.

In NC , I remember hearing that black turnout was low and that was not good news for clinton, and I also remember hearing they are slight lagging or at even compared to 2012. I did hear that fixed up by election day.

Florida was messed up, I do remember something like 28% of republicans voting for Clinton which I though was ridiculous.

That being said early voting can be a helpful indicator for enthusiasm but also look for polls, fundraising, on the ground operations and whatnot

[republican1993]

When can we start extrapolating anything from this? 

In 2016, extrapolating from NC and FL's early vote is literally what led some of us to believe Clinton had the election in the bag. We know that with a pandemic, we have nothing at all to compare it too. There is simply nothing to be done with this information.

If republicans keeps within 100-200k being down by election day in FL + within 300-400k in NC? i think that's a good sign for trump? - dems were up ~100k going into election day and 400k in NC.

[DINGO Joe]

The Iowa SOS has started to publish their absentee numbers today.

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2020/general/AbsenteeCongressional2020.pdf

545k requested ballots (roughly 35% of total 2016 turnout)
357k already sent

Numbers are surely high this early on but look still very managble for IA's system. In 2018, IA sent out 576k absentee ballots

IA has an actual history of people voting absentee, almost 700,000 requested ballots in 2016 (650,000 returned) so it gives you something to compare with.  In 2016 the requests were 286000 to 236000 in the Ds favor in the midterms it was 248000 to 199000 in the Ds favor.  At this point it's 301,000 to 154,000 in the Ds favor.  While all 4 districts are more D compared to 2016, the 3rd is way, way more D, driven by requests in Polk and Dallas.  Polk and Dallas have had the biggest increases in voter registration over the last 4 years because of pop growth and they have became more D in that period.

I assume the advantage will narrow, unless Rs who previously voted absentee suddenly don't because of Trump.  Also, the Rs have a history of doing better on election day, but thus far the Ds have done a very good job of driving requests in metro Des Moines as well as across the state.

[Rep Jessica]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
32m
#earlyvote update 9/23

At least 368,454 people have voted in the 2020 general election https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

[Gass3268]

71,674 returned ballots in Wisconsin, almost double of what it was yesterday. 6.42% of all absentee requests and 2.41% of all 2016 votes cast. Numerically Dane County leads the way with 16,010 returns. Percentage wise, Douglas County has returned 21.27% of their ballots or 7.34% of the total votes cast in 2016. Let me know if theres is anything else you'd like detailed.

[Xing]

71,674 returned ballots in Wisconsin, almost double of what it was yesterday. 6.42% of all absentee requests and 2.41% of all 2016 votes cast. Numerically Dane County leads the way with 16,010 returns. Percentage wise, Douglas County has returned 21.27% of their ballots or 7.34% of the total votes cast in 2016. Let me know if theres is anything else you'd like detailed.

Which counties had the highest return rates prior to Election Day in 2016?

[Holmes]

Is there a discrepancy in how fast returned ballots are processed in urban/suburban counties vs rural counties? I’m noticing rural counties are lagging compared to the rest, which we did see in the spring, but some rural counties much more than others. I wonder if it’s because they’re slower to process in those counties? Some rural counties in northern WI especially have really low return rates atm.

[Tender Branson]

Austria’s absentee balloting is exactly the same as PAs „secrecy“ ballot thing.

You fill out your ballot, put it into a secret envelope and put that envelope into the absentee envelope (which you sign).

If you forget to put the ballot into the inner envelope, your vote is invalid.

Ballot -> Brown secrecy envelope with the number of your regional election district on -> postal ballot envelope:

[DINGO Joe]

Is there a discrepancy in how fast returned ballots are processed in urban/suburban counties vs rural counties? I’m noticing rural counties are lagging compared to the rest, which we did see in the spring, but some rural counties much more than others. I wonder if it’s because they’re slower to process in those counties? Some rural counties in northern WI especially have really low return rates atm.

Without any actual knowledge, I'd assume that larger jurisdiction have enough staff to report this every day, while smaller counties have more of a mom and pop operation and will report less frequently.  Even in NC which has been doing this for more than a week there are counties that have reported nothing.

[Non Swing Voter]

Why is Milwaukee so low?  I would have thought Democrats would be targeting that city.  Dane voters are going to turnout anyway.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1308875641320886272

[Dr. Arch]

Why is Milwaukee so low?  I would have thought Democrats would be targeting that city.  Dane voters are going to turnout anyway.

MKE is always slow at the start. They catch up later on.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1308875641320886272

Pretty incredible that any area has 11% turnout already just after what, a week?

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1308875641320886272

Pretty incredible that any area has 11% turnout already just after what, a week?

Not even, I think.

[It’s so Joever]

Tbf, Fall’s Church is the exact type of place that would have insanely high turnout this year.

[kph14]

Tbf, Fall’s Church is the exact type of place that would have insanely high turnout this year.

Falls Church always has very high turnout (for American standards).

[Gass3268]

Why is Milwaukee so low?  I would have thought Democrats would be targeting that city.  Dane voters are going to turnout anyway.

MKE is always slow at the start. They catch up later on.

It's also still early in the process, I'm guessing some of these counties with low %'s just haven't fully processed their ballots.

[wbrocks67]

Tbf, Fall’s Church is the exact type of place that would have insanely high turnout this year.

so essentially confirmation that white college educated voters are VERY activated this year.

[Non Swing Voter]

I'm sorry but I have to think such insane early voting has to help Democrats if it stays like this.  Even though the Falls Church voters would almost certainly vote on Election Day, you never know, a few might have something come up, etc.  This banks their votes now.  Plus the party doesn't have to worry about them and invest resources last minute on voters who have already turned out.  If a similar thing happens in Philly and its burbs I think that's a good sign.