2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Adam Griffin]

Don't read too much into Georgia's cast votes thus far. I honestly wouldn't put much stock into it until either early in-person voting begins (10/12) or we're well north of 500k votes returned; requested ballots are a better measure at this stage.

Racial breakdowns among those cast aren't inherently any better for Democrats than they were when early voting commenced in 2018, so it's not unprecedented. Also remember that every senior citizen (as well as disabled voter, veteran and overseas voter) who requested a mail ballot in the primary or primary runoff will automatically receive a mail ballot for this election (as well as for both the state and/or federal runoffs if applicable). Almost 40% of mail ballots requested thus far fall into this category.

Not only are seniors dramatically over-represented because of this phenomenon, but Democrats are over-represented as well (among the overall electorate, as well as the senior group) since Democrats are disproportionately using VBM this year along with the fact that 55% of primary voters were Dems. This means even the racial stats aren't anywhere nearly as accurate as they normally would be. It's basically a 50/50 draw right now among requests when balancing race, gender, age and first-time voter status - but probably closer to 60/40 in actual preferences.

As has also been mentioned, the state was supposed to send out ballots beginning on 9/18 to everybody who made their request by 9/15, but they seem to have went out in staggered fashion. Additionally, various counties have begun mailing ballots earlier than others: I got my ballot on September 23.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I think people here are forgetting that an equally large numbers of R's will vote more than D's on Election Day and if the pattern holds from the Aug party, in person early voting will lean R

[Bootes Void]

I think people here are forgetting that an equally large numbers of R's will vote more than D's on Election Day and if the pattern holds from the Aug party, in person early voting will lean R

Maybe your right but it should blow the whole "enthusiasm" issue that you hear about about biden. I cant deny the fact that dems are voting early cause they are motivated. 

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I think people here are forgetting that an equally large numbers of R's will vote more than D's on Election Day and if the pattern holds from the Aug party, in person early voting will lean R

No one is forgetting that. Everyone knows Election Day voters will be overwhelmingly R. It’s important for D’s now to maximize their infrequent voters and first time voters now while they have the chance, and so far it looks like they are doing that to some extent.

[It’s so Joever]

I think people here are forgetting that an equally large numbers of R's will vote more than D's on Election Day and if the pattern holds from the Aug party, in person early voting will lean R

Why do you think we are talking about netting a large gap early on?
You think we want a 500k~ Dem advantage just for fun?

[Rep Jessica]

#earlyvote morning update 10/4

At least 3,298,165 people have voted in the 2020 general election https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

[republican1993]

NC early vote has only 15% of AA vote (2016 AA vote was 20%) and white vote is up since 2016 - does this sound concerning? given biden's shift to white voters this might still net out to trump + 3 atm but does this raise any red flags?

[Bootes Void]

NC early vote has only 15% of AA vote (2016 AA vote was 20%) and white vote is up since 2016 - does this sound concerning? given biden's shift to white voters this might still net out to trump + 3 atm but does this raise any red flags?

it's just absentee, in person early voting hasnt happend yet  which is where you might see more AA support

[It’s so Joever]

NC early vote has only 15% of AA vote (2016 AA vote was 20%) and white vote is up since 2016 - does this sound concerning? given biden's shift to white voters this might still net out to trump + 3 atm but does this raise any red flags?

You are mixing up early and mail voting.
In 2016 in NC, blacks only made up 9% of the mail-in vote but certainly did vote early in-person more. Regardless, I wouldn’t extrapolate too much from this data since only 25% of mail-votes are even in and because of the different circumstances.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We (wife, son, and I) just filled out our ballots and took them to the dropbox.  That's three votes for Biden, Ossoff, and Warnock.

[Tender Branson]

We (wife, son, and I) just filled out our ballots and took them to the dropbox.  That's three votes for Biden, Ossoff, and Warnock.

[img]Drop Box[img]

Good.

GA needs to go 3x blue.

Ossoff and Warnock would make great new Senators, along with Harrison from SC.

[Tender Branson]

NC early vote has only 15% of AA vote (2016 AA vote was 20%) and white vote is up since 2016 - does this sound concerning? given biden's shift to white voters this might still net out to trump + 3 atm but does this raise any red flags?

Probably not concerning.

Blacks are more the early-in-person voting folks, not the early postal voting crowd.

[It’s so Joever]

We (wife, son, and I) just filled out our ballots and took them to the dropbox.  That's three votes for Biden, Ossoff, and Warnock.

[img]Drop Box[img]

Good.

GA needs to go 3x blue.

Ossoff and Warnock would make great new Senators, along with Harrison from SC.

Lol Harrison is not flipping the seat.
I have a feeling SC is going to be the 2018 TN of this race.

[Tender Branson]

We (wife, son, and I) just filled out our ballots and took them to the dropbox.  That's three votes for Biden, Ossoff, and Warnock.

[img]Drop Box[img]

Good.

GA needs to go 3x blue.

Ossoff and Warnock would make great new Senators, along with Harrison from SC.

Lol Harrison is not flipping the seat.
I have a feeling SC is going to be the 2018 TN of this race.

I think it’s going to be more like TN 2006 ... when do you think Lindsay is out with a „call me“ ad against Harrison ?

If Graham wins by 10+, you can call me Tender Brarrison ...

[Non Swing Voter]

Still not sure why exactly Dems need a 600K early vote advantage in Florida but doesn't it seem like they are on track to get it?  Their advantage is growing like 30K a day and there's almost nothing in from Orange and Miami Dade.

[Gass3268]

No updates from Wisconsin this weekend, which is odd considering they typically have a Saturday update and in recent weeks and Sunday update as well. Should get a new one tomorrow morning.

[NOVA Green]

Still not sure why exactly Dems need a 600K early vote advantage in Florida but doesn't it seem like they are on track to get it?  Their advantage is growing like 30K a day and there's almost nothing in from Orange and Miami Dade.

Really we need some Atlas gurus who can run SPC software on all this to create statistical modelling variables, which is one of the tools which Engineers regularly use in the Factory I work at....

Still--- all traditional Political Science and Statistical modelling is totally thrown out the window this GE, but pretty sure the software can handle it assuming enough raw data and ability to convert that into probabilities and statistics....

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Still not sure why exactly Dems need a 600K early vote advantage in Florida but doesn't it seem like they are on track to get it?  Their advantage is growing like 30K a day and there's almost nothing in from Orange and Miami Dade.

Because a lot of people will assume E-Day will be like 80-20 for Trump and want to bank as many votes as possible before then.

[Non Swing Voter]

Still not sure why exactly Dems need a 600K early vote advantage in Florida but doesn't it seem like they are on track to get it?  Their advantage is growing like 30K a day and there's almost nothing in from Orange and Miami Dade.

Because a lot of people will assume E-Day will be like 80-20 for Trump and want to bank as many votes as possible before then.

I understand that, I just don't understand where the precise number 600,000 came from.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1312971195537649664?s=21

[Non Swing Voter]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA.html

Georgia updated its numbers.  The electorate got considerably more diverse with this update.  Returned ballots are 53.6% white.

[Ferguson97]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA.html

Georgia updated its numbers.  The electorate got considerably more diverse with this update.  Returned ballots are 53.6% white.

Georgia is 58% white so that’s good news for the Dems

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1312971195537649664?s=21

I called this out when it came to the KY DEM PRIM...

DEM ballots getting overwhelmingly tossed in the waste basket with shifts towards Vote-By-Mail.

[BlueSwan]

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1312971195537649664?s=21

I called this out when it came to the KY DEM PRIM...

DEM ballots getting overwhelmingly tossed in the waste basket with shifts towards Vote-By-Mail.

This is deeply concerning.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1312971195537649664?s=21

I called this out when it came to the KY DEM PRIM...

DEM ballots getting overwhelmingly tossed in the waste basket with shifts towards Vote-By-Mail.

Do we have concrete reasons to assume this is the product of deliberate manipulation? Isn't election administration in NC under Democratic control?

The alternative is that poorer, more Dem-friendly areas are also more likely to have systematic barriers to voting that increase the likelihood of rejection. Which is awful too, of course, but not as existentially terrifying.