2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Sbane]

...

The next few days are going to be compared with what were the final days of early voting in past years, right? Since there's a week extra this year?

There were counties where there was no early voting last weekend and this coming weekend will be the only weekend with early voting. Harris County is even doing one night of 24 hour voting and that will be interesting to see how many people utilize that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wait, Michael McDonald is a GOP operative?

 I always thought he was just a nonpartisan numbers guy.

Not sure if you're joking but there's two Michael McDonalds, one's the chair of the NV GOP and the other is the ElectProject guy.

Ah I see. No, I did not know that.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Montstro, I love your contributions, I don’t care what ForumLurker says

[Ferguson97]

Seems important.

https://twitter.com/AnaCabrera/status/1319328824769859585

Holy sh**t, turnout is going to be insane

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Seems important.

https://twitter.com/AnaCabrera/status/1319328824769859585

Holy sh**t, turnout is going to be insane

Most definitely includes requests, too. No way 100 mil voted by mail

[Non Swing Voter]

And because you "Blue Texas" believers are probably too dumb to read all those numbers, I conjured up some line graphs of early voting. Keep in mind that there's an extra week of early voting, so it's a bit skewed. Won't matter though cause Trump is gonna win by like 5+ points:

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)


DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)


TARRANT COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)


BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)


TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)


COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)


DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)


EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)


FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)


HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)


WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)


MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)


GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)


CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)


NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)

Which of those counties would you say early turnout clearly favors Democrats?

[wbrocks67]

So it looks like Reps are increasing their lead in Early Vote in Person in FL, but Dems are increasing their massive lead in Mail Ins. And Mails In so far vastly outnumber EV in person, so...

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Which of those counties would you say early turnout clearly favors Democrats?

I would delegate that to the Texas posters who'd know more than me. But I'd think the turnout in Harris, Dallas, Denton, El Paso, Williamson, Montgomery, Cameron & Nueces look very encouraging for Democrats

[wbrocks67]

Also, again, those Georgia EV #s are absolutely insane.

[n1240]

So it looks like Reps are increasing their lead in Early Vote in Person in FL, but Dems are increasing their massive lead in Mail Ins. And Mails In so far vastly outnumber EV in person, so...

Still questions on how close early in-person totals gets to mail-in vote totals. I haven't paid as close attention as I should to Florida but the in-person vote is still outnumbering the mail-in vote since in-person voting became available on Monday by a considerable amount, and most of the gap in totals is explained by mail vote being available for a much longer time. There is still a considerable degree of uncertainty in regards to how much early in-person vote there will be relative to mail-in vote, how much R's can close gap on early in-person, and how many actually vote on election day.

[Non Swing Voter]

Democratic turnout in Florida now at 39.2% of registered Democrats.  Considering there's 12 days to go I think that's a pretty good number.

[Rep Jessica]

Democratic turnout in Florida now at 39.2% of registered Democrats.  Considering there's 12 days to go I think that's a pretty good number.

What was the turn out % of democrats in 2016?

[Non Swing Voter]

Democratic turnout in Florida now at 39.2% of registered Democrats.  Considering there's 12 days to go I think that's a pretty good number.

What was the turn out % of democrats in 2016?

Good question.  I think someone posted something that showed a little under 80% at one point but I don't remember exactly.

[KaiserDave]

Keep voting Americans!

[Rep Jessica]

FLORIDA Vote-By-Mail (7:30 PM UPDATE)

Dem: 1,598,110  (+565,837)
Rep: 1,032,273
NPA/Other: 719,515

Total: 3,349,898

[Flabuckeye]

Democratic turnout in Florida now at 39.2% of registered Democrats.  Considering there's 12 days to go I think that's a pretty good number.

What was the turn out % of democrats in 2016?

Good question.  I think someone posted something that showed a little under 80% at one point but I don't remember exactly.

Yes, this was 53.9% after early vote and 74.4% Total
Repubs were 55.7% after early vote and  81.2% Total, thus the Hillary loss

[Non Swing Voter]

Democratic turnout in Florida now at 39.2% of registered Democrats.  Considering there's 12 days to go I think that's a pretty good number.

What was the turn out % of democrats in 2016?

Good question.  I think someone posted something that showed a little under 80% at one point but I don't remember exactly.

Yes, this was 53.9% after early vote and 74.4% Total
Repubs were 55.7% after early vote and  81.2% Total, thus the Hillary loss

Wow, 74.4% was even lower than I thought.  I mean that tells you everything right there...  Democrats just need to keep up with Republicans not outperform them, though they might this year.

People freaking out about Republican turnout should look at the above and keep in mind that Dems are closing in on 40%.

[EJ24]

Democratic turnout in Florida now at 39.2% of registered Democrats.  Considering there's 12 days to go I think that's a pretty good number.

What was the turn out % of democrats in 2016?

Good question.  I think someone posted something that showed a little under 80% at one point but I don't remember exactly.

Yes, this was 53.9% after early vote and 74.4% Total
Repubs were 55.7% after early vote and  81.2% Total, thus the Hillary loss

Wow, 74.4% was even lower than I thought.  I mean that tells you everything right there...  Democrats just need to keep up with Republicans not outperform them, though they might this year.

People freaking out about Republican turnout should look at the above and keep in mind that Dems are closing in on 40%.

Another thing you have to factor in is the late-deciders and independents who broke for Trump in 2016. Everything suggests now that independents are likely with Biden. That could be the deciding factor in a state like Florida.

[Flabuckeye]

Democratic turnout in Florida now at 39.2% of registered Democrats.  Considering there's 12 days to go I think that's a pretty good number.

What was the turn out % of democrats in 2016?

Good question.  I think someone posted something that showed a little under 80% at one point but I don't remember exactly.

Yes, this was 53.9% after early vote and 74.4% Total
Repubs were 55.7% after early vote and  81.2% Total, thus the Hillary loss

Wow, 74.4% was even lower than I thought.  I mean that tells you everything right there...  Democrats just need to keep up with Republicans not outperform them, though they might this year.

People freaking out about Republican turnout should look at the above and keep in mind that Dems are closing in on 40%.

Yes, just hold serve vs are on turnout and let NPAs assist.  The more NPAs the better, they only turned out at 63.3% last time in TOTAL

[Non Swing Voter]

Democratic turnout in Florida now at 39.2% of registered Democrats.  Considering there's 12 days to go I think that's a pretty good number.

What was the turn out % of democrats in 2016?

Good question.  I think someone posted something that showed a little under 80% at one point but I don't remember exactly.

Yes, this was 53.9% after early vote and 74.4% Total
Repubs were 55.7% after early vote and  81.2% Total, thus the Hillary loss

Wow, 74.4% was even lower than I thought.  I mean that tells you everything right there...  Democrats just need to keep up with Republicans not outperform them, though they might this year.

People freaking out about Republican turnout should look at the above and keep in mind that Dems are closing in on 40%.

Another thing you have to factor in is the late-deciders and independents who broke for Trump in 2016. Everything suggests now that independents are likely with Biden. That could be the deciding factor in a state like Florida.

Yeah and about 1 million of them have already voted.  Trump has very little opportunity to win back voters.  Just so few undecideds left.

[Asta]

I feel like citing raw # of lead in Florida rather than by % to portray the dynamics of the race is misguided.
Just look at the Siena/NYT poll.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/flpa-0930-crosstabs/16c21b7ab34ed4d1/full.pdf

Vote intention (D/R/I)

Mail (42/24/38)
Early voting in person (34/23/25)
Voting on election day (18/48/35)

In other words, Democrats are supposed to have a lead in both mail and early voting in person. The fact that Republicans are outpacing in early voting so far might mean that either greater % of Republicans than estimated are demonizing mail voting, or that Democrats are over-worried about covid and sticking to mail voting.*

The latter seems unlikely to me, at least enough to the point that it skews the picture of the race. Not a doomer, but I'm not sure that Democrats are doing as well as people are suggesting.

Edited*

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1319436214039158786

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1319436214039158786

I feel like it's not that bad.  GOP netted like 38k today?  And that doesn't include Miami Dade?  So lets say it's in the lower 30's.  At this rate they still need big turnout on Election Day. 

Plus souls to the polls Sunday could help Dems?

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia, Final Thursday Update: As of 8 PM, 205,833 votes were cast on Thursday.

This includes 148,180 in-person votes and 57,653 mail ballots. We fell literally 6 votes short of the largest single day for mail ballots (which was yesterday).

Total ballots cast in GA are now 1,458,444 in-person & 871,960 by mail, for a grand total of 2,330,404 (55.95% of 2016 total vote).

Georgia will surpass its 2016 EV total around noon tomorrow.

[It’s so Joever]

I feel like citing raw # of lead in Florida rather than by % to portray the dynamics of the race is misguided.
Just look at the Siena/NYT poll.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/flpa-0930-crosstabs/16c21b7ab34ed4d1/full.pdf

Vote intention (D/R/I)

Mail (42/24/38)
Early voting in person (34/23/25)
Voting on election day (18/48/35)

In other words, Democrats are supposed to have a lead in both mail and early voting in person. The fact that Republicans are outpacing in early voting so far might mean that either greater % of Republicans than estimated are demonizing mail voting, or that Democrats are over-worried about covid and sticking to mail voting.*

The latter seems unlikely to me, at least enough to the point that it skews the picture of the race. Not a doomer, but I'm not sure that Democrats are doing as well as people are suggesting.

Edited*

This.
It seems a lot of people forget Dems are supposed to be leading in early voting judging by polls.