2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Gass3268]

More people have voted early this year already than voted early in 2016.

[Inmate Trump]

More people have voted early this year already than voted early in 2016.

Logic would suggest that isn't good for Trump right?

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319375483281281026?s=21
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319348592776269827?s=21

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319375483281281026?s=21
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319348592776269827?s=21

Gotta say, Dems can’t keep losing 30,000 a day like that like cmon, GET OUT AND VOTE!!!

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319375483281281026?s=21
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319348592776269827?s=21

Gotta say, Dems can’t keep losing 30,000 a day like that like cmon, GET OUT AND VOTE!!!

Dude, Dems gained over 20,000 votes today if these numbers are accurate. The gap is now D+>500,000. Use your head!

Edit: Scratch this. See my later post. The first tweet didn't load.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319375483281281026?s=21
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319348592776269827?s=21

Gotta say, Dems can’t keep losing 30,000 a day like that like cmon, GET OUT AND VOTE!!!

Dude, Dems gained over 20,000 votes today if these numbers are accurate. The gap is now D+>500,000. Use your head!

Thanks for informing me , I did not know that. Either way GET OUT AND VOTE

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@ImpartialSpectator: thanks! That’s about what I expected. The only thing that’s giving me concern about Biden’s chances is the south Texas turnout, but even then, they are still turning out in record numbers compared to years past in EV, even in Webb County which is notoriously bad.

Also, I do care about how Kenedy County votes, insomuch as how it aesthetically appears on the map! Haha

[Non Swing Voter]

Looks like there was a decent sized Georgia update which pushed it over 50% of 2016's turnout:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA.html

like over 800k votes in those 4 big Atlanta counties.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319375483281281026?s=21
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319348592776269827?s=21

Gotta say, Dems can’t keep losing 30,000 a day like that like cmon, GET OUT AND VOTE!!!

Dude, Dems gained over 20,000 votes today if these numbers are accurate. The gap is now D+>500,000. Use your head!

Thanks for informing me , I did not know that. Either way GET OUT AND VOTE

Absolutely

[Non Swing Voter]

Looks like PA there was a problem with some of the counties reporting. They seem to be coming in better/faster now, esp the suburbs.

Dems have now returned 51% of their ballots. Reps only 36%.

Dems @ 947K vs. Reps 263K.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1319303007381704704

Am I misreading this, or is this an absolute disaster for the GOP? It looks like this kind of got glossed over. Even if 25% of those D votes are "ancestral Democrats" voting for Republicans, that's still a 210,000 vote deficit for the GOP at this point.

The numbers do look bad for the GOP right now because the Philly burbs are still lagging behind in reporting.  The real numbers are probably a lot worse for Republicans.  There will be a lot of ancestral democrats but no question Democrats are turning out their vote right now.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319375483281281026?s=21
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319348592776269827?s=21

Gotta say, Dems can’t keep losing 30,000 a day like that like cmon, GET OUT AND VOTE!!!

Dude, Dems gained over 20,000 votes today if these numbers are accurate. The gap is now D+>500,000. Use your head!

I'm seeing +428,000 below, how do we get above 500k?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1667359942

[Nyvin]

The turnout in Texas seems crazy,  two thirds of 2016 turnout this early on is unreal.

I don't think anyone really knows what will happen in Texas,  have we ever seen anything like this?

[Non Swing Voter]

what I am looking at instead of the lead in Florida now, is the turnout percentage among Democrats.  The closer to 100% we can get it the better for Biden.  If Democrats turn out the GOP can't win the state even if they also turn out.  

Right now 38.5% of registered democrats have turned out.  If they keep steadily increasing this number, hopefully Biden can micro-target the stragglers.  

GOP's all in on Election Day strategy seems dumb.  They basically have to work their butts off on Election Day.

[Bootes Void]

I'm disappointed in NY, they are the only state to not report anything yet

[Non Swing Voter]

I'm disappointed in NY, they are the only state to not report anything yet

Safe to assume it's a bloodbath of epic proportions against Republicans.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1319376999459278849

Officially passed the TOTAL number of early votes cast in 2016 and still 12 days out. Voting definitely skewing way earlier this time.

Does Tender or any of the other people spewing the "It's just high propensity voters and cannibalizing E Day, doesn't mean anything for overall turnout" crowd want to change their tune, or do we have to wait for states to start eclipsing their 2016 turnout on early votes alone (which will start happening next week)?

[GP270watch]

what I am looking at instead of the lead in Florida now, is the turnout percentage among Democrats.  The closer to 100% we can get it the better for Biden.  If Democrats turn out the GOP can't win the state even if they also turn out.  

Right now 38.5% of registered democrats have turned out.  If they keep steadily increasing this number, hopefully Biden can micro-target the stragglers.  

GOP's all in on Election Day strategy seems dumb.  They basically have to work their butts off on Election Day.

 It's not dumb because of the turnout of white Republicans in the state is far and away the best, it was 82.6% in 2016.

 Exclusive first cut at 2016 Turnout rates in Florida…by Party and Race/Ethnicity


 If the GOP turns out and we don't and NPA is not a blowout for Biden, Trump will win.

 There seems to be anecdotal evidence that Hispanic Republicans are coming back to Trump where in 2016 he was weaker with them. So we need the Democratic base to turn out in Miami-Dade. We need to keep it as close as possible in the GOP super counties so they don't run up the score.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1319365011429613568?s=20

900k is approximately one city of Fort Worth or one Jacksonville Florida (if you prefer meme comparisons).

Edit: HC was at 35,645 this time yesterday.

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319375483281281026?s=21
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319348592776269827?s=21

Gotta say, Dems can’t keep losing 30,000 a day like that like cmon, GET OUT AND VOTE!!!

Dude, Dems gained over 20,000 votes today if these numbers are accurate. The gap is now D+>500,000. Use your head!

Not sure if this is correct, D advantage in mail-in was 547k 22 hours ago, and 560k 2 hours ago per his twitter. This indicates GOP is closing the gap and is definitely not 500k+ overall.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319375483281281026?s=21
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319348592776269827?s=21

Gotta say, Dems can’t keep losing 30,000 a day like that like cmon, GET OUT AND VOTE!!!

Dude, Dems gained over 20,000 votes today if these numbers are accurate. The gap is now D+>500,000. Use your head!

Not sure if this is correct, D advantage in mail-in was 547k 22 hours ago, and 560k 2 hours ago per his twitter. This indicates GOP is closing the gap and is definitely not 500k+ overall.

How does Democrats increasing the lead in mail-in votes indicate the GOP is closing the gap?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The turnout in Texas seems crazy,  two thirds of 2016 turnout this early on is unreal.

I don't think anyone really knows what will happen in Texas,  have we ever seen anything like this?

No, no we haven’t. Apparently ForumLurker knows what will happen though!

[Buzz]

Some of y’all need to retake math ASAP

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319375483281281026?s=21
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319348592776269827?s=21

Gotta say, Dems can’t keep losing 30,000 a day like that like cmon, GET OUT AND VOTE!!!

Dude, Dems gained over 20,000 votes today if these numbers are accurate. The gap is now D+>500,000. Use your head!

Not sure if this is correct, D advantage in mail-in was 547k 22 hours ago, and 560k 2 hours ago per his twitter. This indicates GOP is closing the gap and is definitely not 500k+ overall.

How does Democrats increasing the lead in mail-in votes indicate the GOP is closing the gap?

Overall among absentee votes the gap is closing because GOP is winning daily early in-person by a larger raw margin than Dems are winning daily mail vote.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Right now 38.5% of registered democrats have turned out.  If they keep steadily increasing this number, hopefully Biden can micro-target the stragglers.  

I've been volunteering in South Florida and iirc, they expect 2/3 of votes to be in before election day and have been recruiting volunteers HARD to make calls on the last four days. Because early voting/dropboxes close on 11/1, using SOS matchbacks they should be able to target every likely Biden vote that hasn't turned out before election day.

[Non Swing Voter]

Right now 38.5% of registered democrats have turned out.  If they keep steadily increasing this number, hopefully Biden can micro-target the stragglers.  

I've been volunteering in South Florida and iirc, they expect 2/3 of votes to be in before election day and have been recruiting volunteers HARD to make calls on the last four days. Because early voting/dropboxes close on 11/1, using SOS matchbacks they should be able to target every likely Biden vote that hasn't turned out before election day.

so the closer to 2/3 of Dem votes in by 11/1 the better?  And if it's more than 2/3 then that's a great sign?