2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Adam Griffin]

Daily Schedule for Absentee/EV Thread (all times in Eastern):
Noon - 9 PM: Gloat about Texas
9 PM - 12 AM: Freak out over Florida
12 AM - 1 AM: Freak out over Nevada

[Sestak]

Biden is winning Texas, losers. Deal with it.

[GP270watch]

Daily Schedule for Absentee/EV Thread (all times in Eastern):
Noon - 9 PM: Gloat about Texas
9 PM - 12 AM: Freak out over Florida
12 AM - 1 AM: Freak out over Nevada

 I liked this post because it's funny but I haven't worried about Nevada all election cycle.

[It’s so Joever]

Biden is winning Texas, losers. Deal with it.

Don’t get my hopes up.

[It’s so Joever]

Daily Schedule for Absentee/EV Thread (all times in Eastern):
Noon - 9 PM: Gloat about Texas
9 PM - 12 AM: Freak out over Florida
12 AM - 1 AM: Freak out over Nevada

 I liked this post because it's funny but I haven't worried about Nevada all election cycle.

Yeah I’m a doomer, but I’m pretty bullish on Biden’s chances in these Western states. Nevada is no exception. They got a Dem trifecta in 2018 and even some Latino movement towards Trump isn’t enough to cancel out the huge suburban hemorrhaging of the GOP.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Biden is winning Texas, losers. Deal with it.

He just won't. Forumlurker knows that and through him, I now know that as well.

I don't know why he'll lose in Texas outside of it vaguely being "not there yet", but that's what I've heard and I'm sticking to it.

Trump will win it by 10% or higher. It'd be foolish to think otherwise

[kireev]

Daily Schedule for Absentee/EV Thread (all times in Eastern):
Noon - 9 PM: Gloat about Texas
9 PM - 12 AM: Freak out over Florida
12 AM - 1 AM: Freak out over Nevada

Thanks God Texas does not have party registration - Atlas would be freaking out all day long

[It’s so Joever]

Biden is winning Texas, losers. Deal with it.

He just won't. Forumlurker knows that and through him, I now know that as well.

I don't know why he'll lose in Texas outside of it not being there yet, but that's what I've heard and I'm sticking to it.

It'd be foolish to think otherwise

Dude, you will have so much crow to eat after this cycle.
413 is a pipe dream.

Anyways, Trump honestly probably wins in by about 4-5%
I’m not saying it won’t swing, but not to the extent you seem to think it will.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Biden is winning Texas, losers. Deal with it.

He just won't. Forumlurker knows that and through him, I now know that as well.

I don't know why he'll lose in Texas outside of it not being there yet, but that's what I've heard and I'm sticking to it.

It'd be foolish to think otherwise

Dude, you will have so much crow to eat after this cycle.
413 is a pipe dream.

I'm already eating it now! Because you've shown me how foolish I was for having any feelings of hope in elections! I thank you for that.

Anyway, back to the topic at hand. Early vote numbers in states that look to be competitive (Not Georgia & Texas because Trump will handily win those anyway so don't waste time with those two)

[Non Swing Voter]

Biden is winning Texas, losers. Deal with it.

He just won't. Forumlurker knows that and through him, I now know that as well.

I don't know why he'll lose in Texas outside of it not being there yet, but that's what I've heard and I'm sticking to it.

It'd be foolish to think otherwise

Dude, you will have so much crow to eat after this cycle.
413 is a pipe dream.

Anyways, Trump honestly probably wins in by about 4-5%
I’m not saying it won’t swing, but not to the extent you seem to think it will.

5% seems ambitious for Trump given the turnout, the way Texas is trending, Biden just generally doing better than Clinton everywhere.  I don't see why Biden would do that much worse than Beto.  Maybe Ted Cruz was an unlikable, uninspiring turd that had literally no appeal and was worst case scenario for Republicans in Texas, but even if that's the case, the turnout is insane this year and it would seem to benefit Biden.

[The Mikado]

I do know some things about Texas politics, fwiw, and you might have remembered me from threads in 2014 or 2016 or 2018 (maybe further back than that!) pouring cold water on "Texas is going blue" ideas. I freely admit that until, like, the last two weeks of 2018 I wasn't taking Beto O'Rourke as seriously as I should've been, but eventually came pretty close to nailing the margin (I had Cruz by 4 at the end, still underestimating Beto but not by a lot).

I'm saying that to say that anyone who isn't taking the prospect of Biden winning Texas this time seriously as a real possibility is not "a spoilsport" or a "pessimist" or something. You're actually just flat out wrong. Trump might well pull off Texas, but if he does, it'll be by the absolute skin of his teeth on a 7 or 8 point swing against him. Trump winning Texas by, like, 5+ points is just not going to happen and you're living under a rock and completely ignorant of what's going on in Texas if you aren't seeing what's happening here.

[philly09]

Well, well, well.

https://www.sacurrent.com/the-daily/archives/2020/10/21/texas-republicans-blast-trump-on-conference-call-urge-gop-voters-to-cast-ballots-for-joe-biden

[philly09]

44 Million votes!  Thanks to CA, OH, ND, and a late update from Texas.

[Non Swing Voter]

I do know some things about Texas politics, fwiw, and you might have remembered me from threads in 2014 or 2016 or 2018 (maybe further back than that!) pouring cold water on "Texas is going blue" ideas. I freely admit that until, like, the last two weeks of 2018 I wasn't taking Beto O'Rourke as seriously as I should've been, but eventually came pretty close to nailing the margin (I had Cruz by 4 at the end, still underestimating Beto but not by a lot).

I'm saying that to say that anyone who isn't taking the prospect of Biden winning Texas this time seriously as a real possibility is not "a spoilsport" or a "pessimist" or something. You're actually just flat out wrong. Trump might well pull off Texas, but if he does, it'll be by the absolute skin of his teeth on a 7 or 8 point swing against him. Trump winning Texas by, like, 5+ points is just not going to happen and you're living under a rock and completely ignorant of what's going on in Texas if you aren't seeing what's happening here.

I think we all missed the obvious signs for Texas.

Changing demographics?  Check
Large cities and big suburbs?  Check
Educated population?  Check
In-migration from blue states?  Check

I think people think of Texas as a rural state but it's a lot more urban than a state like Michigan or even North Carolina.

[Non Swing Voter]

44 Million votes!  Thanks to CA, OH, ND, and a late update from Texas.

I might be going out on a limb here but I think we could get very close to 60 million by Friday night. 

[Adam Griffin]

Half of Texas residents can be found here:

[OSR stands with Israel]

I do know some things about Texas politics, fwiw, and you might have remembered me from threads in 2014 or 2016 or 2018 (maybe further back than that!) pouring cold water on "Texas is going blue" ideas. I freely admit that until, like, the last two weeks of 2018 I wasn't taking Beto O'Rourke as seriously as I should've been, but eventually came pretty close to nailing the margin (I had Cruz by 4 at the end, still underestimating Beto but not by a lot).

I'm saying that to say that anyone who isn't taking the prospect of Biden winning Texas this time seriously as a real possibility is not "a spoilsport" or a "pessimist" or something. You're actually just flat out wrong. Trump might well pull off Texas, but if he does, it'll be by the absolute skin of his teeth on a 7 or 8 point swing against him. Trump winning Texas by, like, 5+ points is just not going to happen and you're living under a rock and completely ignorant of what's going on in Texas if you aren't seeing what's happening here.

I think we all missed the obvious signs for Texas.

Changing demographics?  Check
Large cities and big suburbs?  Check
Educated population?  Check
In-migration from blue states?  Check

I think people think of Texas as a rural state but it's a lot more urban than a state like Michigan or even North Carolina.

Romney did better relatively in Texas than any Republican in history other than George W Bush though.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Texas does flip blue it would ugh be almost like a bookend to the Reagan era. Texas became a Republican state in 1980 and during the Republican Revolution and turns back Dem right as the Reagan coalition collapses


Thats the reason why I dont want Texas to flip as I want Reaganites to still be in charge of the GOP (obviously revamped for the 2020s though) and Texas flipping would mark the end of that too.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I can't believe it, but I actually think Collin is going to flip with these turnout numbers.

Say turnout is 140% of 2016.

First assume that every Biden gets every Clinton 2016 vote+3rd party 2016 vote. That yields:
Trump: 201,014
Biden: 163,416

Then add 135,000 new votes which split 70-30 Biden. (70,000 from new residents and 65,000 from voters who didn't turn out last time.) That yields:
Biden: 257,916 (52%)
Trump: 241,514 (48%)

Obviously these numbers are very crude but they prove a Biden win here is possible. I wouldn't be *that* shocked by a Denton flip as well.

[Bootes Void]

I do know some things about Texas politics, fwiw, and you might have remembered me from threads in 2014 or 2016 or 2018 (maybe further back than that!) pouring cold water on "Texas is going blue" ideas. I freely admit that until, like, the last two weeks of 2018 I wasn't taking Beto O'Rourke as seriously as I should've been, but eventually came pretty close to nailing the margin (I had Cruz by 4 at the end, still underestimating Beto but not by a lot).

I'm saying that to say that anyone who isn't taking the prospect of Biden winning Texas this time seriously as a real possibility is not "a spoilsport" or a "pessimist" or something. You're actually just flat out wrong. Trump might well pull off Texas, but if he does, it'll be by the absolute skin of his teeth on a 7 or 8 point swing against him. Trump winning Texas by, like, 5+ points is just not going to happen and you're living under a rock and completely ignorant of what's going on in Texas if you aren't seeing what's happening here.

I think we all missed the obvious signs for Texas.

Changing demographics?  Check
Large cities and big suburbs?  Check
Educated population?  Check
In-migration from blue states?  Check

I think people think of Texas as a rural state but it's a lot more urban than a state like Michigan or even North Carolina.

Romney did better relatively in Texas than any Republican in history other than George W Bush though.

Romney assuming he is genuinely himself fits the sunbelt suburban voters like a glove, so no surprise he did well in Texas

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Here's another way to look at Texas early vote turnout. It has been compared quite a bit to 2016 turnout, but in some ways could it be more helpful to compare to 2018? After all, 2018 data should show some of the Dem/Beto trend in the suburbs and megacities of TX that we expect to be present in 2020.

But in order to have a chance to win TX, Biden will need that same 2018 trend to not only return, but to be stronger so as to make up the margin by which Cruz beat Beto in 2018.

On the other hand, for Trump to do well, we should expect turnout to be systematically higher among white working class voters in rural counties than was the case in the 2018 midterms (since less educated voters tend to vote less in midterms, Trump's hope is to offset additional Dem gains in the suburbs/cities with higher turnout in among non-college whites than we saw in 2018).

Here's a list I complied of all TX counties sorted by the % of the total 2018 turnout that has already been cast (in the first column). The 2nd column is the margin by which Ted Cruz won the county in 2018.

There is one county (Scurry) which already has 128.4% of 2018's total turnout. That is presumably some sort of fluke. On the low end, Hudspeth county has only 22.0% of 2018's total turnout (also probably a fluke). The statewide average is that votes equal to 63.9% of 2018's total turnout have already been cast.

Another interesting thing to look at is how the % of 2018 vote already cast correlates with the Cruz margin of victory. So far, there is a slight/weak negative correlation between those two things of -0.031

This is a pretty weak correlation, so there is not much of a clear general relationship on the county level between partisanship and turnout as compared to 2018. However, the negative correlation does mean that the distribution of turnout is a bit more tilted towards Beto-friendly counties than was the case in 2018. In other words, at least on the county level, additional urban/suburban/hispanic dem gains seem to be slightly more than off-setting any effect of increased rural/non-college white/GOP turnout so far.

That does support the idea that Biden could be in a position to win Texas. However, it is important to remember that these numbers do not include election day votes and other votes that have not yet been cast, and the election day votes are generally expected to be relatively more favorable for the GOP/Trump.

County   % of 2018 vote already cast   Cruz Margin
SCURRY   128.4%   70.2%
UVALDE   84.3%   10.3%
BRISCOE   83.8%   77.6%
GAINES   83.2%   72.9%
DENTON   77.0%   8.1%
BRAZORIA   76.1%   18.3%
ARANSAS   75.0%   49.3%
COLEMAN   75.0%   77.0%
COLLIN   74.7%   6.1%
GREGG   74.5%   37.4%
WILLIAMSON   74.1%   -2.9%
SAN PATRICIO   73.8%   25.0%
GALVESTON   73.7%   19.9%
CAMERON   73.3%   -25.9%
POLK   73.1%   53.4%
CHILDRESS   72.9%   72.9%
YOAKUM   72.7%   64.3%
GUADALUPE   72.3%   25.4%
CORYELL   72.3%   35.0%
WOOD   72.0%   67.8%
CHAMBERS   72.0%   60.7%
MASON   71.7%   58.9%
BANDERA   71.5%   60.3%
LUBBOCK   71.4%   29.2%
HIDALGO   71.1%   -38.2%
WILBARGER   71.1%   54.2%
COMAL   70.9%   44.3%
HUTCHINSON   70.9%   76.8%
SUTTON   70.7%   55.5%
KENDALL   70.4%   55.3%
NUECES   70.4%   -1.5%
HAYS   70.4%   -15.4%
MADISON   69.6%   58.8%
BAYLOR   69.4%   74.0%
MILAM   68.7%   49.1%
JASPER   68.6%   61.0%
WARD   68.6%   44.4%
GRAYSON   68.5%   47.5%
BASTROP   68.4%   10.9%
REAGAN   68.3%   66.7%
ANDREWS   68.3%   62.0%
LAMPASAS   68.2%   57.1%
ATASCOSA   68.1%   28.0%
RANDALL   68.0%   59.6%
POTTER   67.9%   37.5%
WISE   67.9%   65.4%
MEDINA   67.7%   42.2%
CAMP   67.7%   41.9%
HOWARD   67.6%   53.5%
WASHINGTON   67.5%   50.9%
KERR   67.5%   52.3%
MENARD   67.2%   62.2%
MARION   67.0%   40.9%
EASTLAND   66.7%   73.8%
RAINS   66.6%   68.6%
HARRIS   66.5%   -16.7%
ORANGE   66.5%   61.2%
SOMERVELL   66.3%   65.0%
BLANCO   66.2%   45.0%
MONTAGUE   66.2%   73.9%
SAN JACINTO   66.1%   61.2%
KIMBLE   66.1%   76.3%
STARR   66.0%   -54.1%
SABINE   65.7%   74.6%
CALLAHAN   65.6%   74.9%
BEXAR   65.0%   -19.9%
LEE   64.8%   54.1%
LLANO   64.7%   57.4%
HARDIN   64.5%   73.4%
JEFFERSON   64.5%   -0.5%
PECOS   64.4%   23.4%
BURNET   64.3%   50.9%
LASALLE   64.3%   -9.4%
FORT BEND   63.9%   -12.1%
HARTLEY   63.9%   80.9%
CRANE   63.8%   59.1%
ROCKWALL   63.8%   38.4%
REAL   63.7%   68.2%
ANGELINA   63.5%   45.5%
TRAVIS   63.3%   -49.7%
JEFF DAVIS   63.1%   18.4%
TERRY   63.1%   54.7%
TAYLOR   63.0%   47.5%
EDWARDS   62.7%   60.6%
GONZALES   62.7%   48.9%
STEPHENS   62.7%   77.7%
UPSHUR   62.6%   65.5%
NACOGDOCHES   62.5%   27.9%
WILSON   62.3%   47.7%
EL PASO   62.2%   -49.4%
YOUNG   62.1%   73.7%
CASS   62.0%   59.9%
MITCHELL   61.8%   66.0%
DALLAS   61.6%   -33.0%
REFUGIO   61.6%   31.7%
WALKER   61.4%   30.0%
WHARTON   61.4%   41.0%
GRAY   61.3%   78.5%
FREESTONE   61.2%   60.4%
GILLESPIE   61.1%   58.3%
JACK   61.1%   78.3%
HOCKLEY   60.9%   59.6%
LIMESTONE   60.7%   51.2%
JACKSON   60.6%   65.3%
MCCULLOCH   60.4%   69.1%
ELLIS   60.3%   36.2%
KLEBERG   60.3%   -4.4%
MATAGORDA   60.2%   40.9%
HARRISON   60.0%   44.2%
KINNEY   59.9%   39.1%
REEVES   59.8%   -5.3%
MONTGOMERY   59.8%   45.3%
COMANCHE   59.8%   65.5%
HALE   59.7%   45.9%
AUSTIN   59.6%   58.7%
ERATH   59.6%   60.0%
ARMSTRONG   59.5%   82.9%
SHACKELFORD   59.3%   83.6%
PRESIDIO   59.2%   -47.1%
UPTON   59.2%   66.4%
MCLENNAN   58.9%   23.2%
BREWSTER   58.9%   -6.6%
FRANKLIN   58.9%   67.0%
MARTIN   58.8%   67.8%
TITUS   58.7%   42.7%
SCHLEICHER   58.6%   55.3%
PALO PINTO   58.4%   60.6%
GOLIAD   58.2%   52.4%
BOWIE   58.1%   43.0%
WALLER   58.0%   23.1%
RED RIVER   57.9%   55.5%
STERLING   57.8%   81.9%
GRIMES   57.4%   51.8%
TARRANT   57.3%   -0.7%
ROBERTSON   57.1%   37.5%
BEE   57.0%   21.2%
FOARD   57.0%   47.8%
MOORE   57.0%   60.6%
KAUFMAN   57.0%   36.8%
SWISHER   56.8%   54.9%
LIBERTY   56.7%   56.5%
LAMB   56.6%   59.1%
ECTOR   56.5%   38.6%
DAWSON   56.5%   45.8%
CALHOUN   56.5%   38.0%
HAMILTON   56.4%   68.7%
HOPKINS   56.4%   56.7%
GARZA   56.4%   67.2%
DEWITT   56.4%   62.7%
COLORADO   56.3%   51.8%
ARCHER   56.3%   78.6%
TRINITY   56.2%   60.8%
VAL VERDE   56.0%   -5.3%
COKE   55.9%   78.1%
DEAF SMITH   55.9%   42.7%
MILLS   55.8%   76.6%
VICTORIA   55.7%   40.3%
WHEELER   55.6%   85.9%
SMITH   55.6%   39.5%
BELL   55.5%   10.4%
KENT   55.5%   72.4%
TYLER   55.4%   66.3%
FLOYD   55.2%   48.9%
OCHILTREE   54.9%   79.9%
COTTLE   54.8%   64.8%
FRIO   54.7%   -10.3%
CLAY   54.7%   73.8%
HENDERSON   54.2%   58.4%
DONLEY   54.2%   74.2%
SAN AUGUSTINE   54.0%   50.8%
ROBERTS   53.9%   91.7%
ZAVALA   53.8%   -59.1%
LOVING   53.7%   75.9%
MIDLAND   53.3%   53.9%
PARKER   53.2%   62.6%
FAYETTE   53.0%   57.5%
PANOLA   53.0%   63.1%
HOUSTON   52.8%   51.4%
COLLINGSWORTH   52.7%   75.1%
BURLESON   52.7%   55.7%
WEBB   52.5%   -43.2%
CALDWELL   52.5%   8.0%
RUSK   52.3%   55.2%
HALL   52.2%   66.5%
JOHNSON   52.2%   51.8%
LIVE OAK   52.2%   66.5%
COCHRAN   52.0%   58.5%
FISHER   52.0%   53.5%
LAVACA   51.8%   73.3%
MORRIS   51.7%   40.0%
CROCKETT   51.7%   46.1%
HARDEMAN   51.2%   67.8%
CROSBY   51.1%   38.0%
SAN SABA   50.9%   75.6%
DALLAM   50.9%   74.5%
STONEWALL   50.8%   62.7%
WINKLER   50.8%   55.1%
HEMPHILL   50.8%   76.5%
NOLAN   49.5%   53.8%
HASKELL   49.5%   63.3%
BROOKS   49.5%   -43.3%
CHEROKEE   49.3%   56.4%
JONES   49.1%   65.9%
CARSON   49.0%   79.2%
NAVARRO   48.5%   44.9%
BAILEY   48.4%   49.4%
RUNNELS   48.3%   76.0%
LEON   48.3%   73.7%
BRAZOS   48.2%   12.6%
MCMULLEN   48.1%   80.5%
COOKE   48.1%   64.2%
KARNES   48.1%   41.0%
FANNIN   48.1%   60.1%
LAMAR   48.0%   54.2%
OLDHAM   47.9%   79.7%
SHELBY   47.8%   59.3%
JIM HOGG   47.8%   -44.0%
BORDEN   47.5%   86.9%
CONCHO   47.3%   65.3%
DICKENS   47.2%   69.2%
WICHITA   46.9%   40.3%
ZAPATA   46.9%   -25.7%
ANDERSON   46.5%   54.5%
GLASSCOCK   46.2%   85.9%
JIM WELLS   45.8%   -8.2%
NEWTON   45.8%   57.0%
DIMMIT   45.3%   -41.5%
KING   45.0%   90.1%
SHERMAN   44.9%   73.6%
MOTLEY   44.2%   84.1%
IRION   44.0%   73.2%
BOSQUE   44.0%   60.7%
MAVERICK   43.8%   -44.3%
VAN ZANDT   43.0%   70.0%
DELTA   42.9%   62.5%
DUVAL   42.7%   -34.9%
HUNT   42.6%   49.0%
KNOX   42.6%   57.3%
WILLACY   42.6%   -28.8%
TERRELL   42.6%   39.4%
HANSFORD   41.7%   82.7%
THROCKMORTON   41.5%   76.8%
HOOD   41.0%   61.5%
BROWN   39.8%   71.9%
KENEDY   39.4%   12.8%
LYNN   39.4%   61.6%
HILL   39.0%   56.7%
TOM GREEN   37.2%   43.2%
FALLS   35.7%   37.8%
CULBERSON   34.7%   -27.1%
PARMER   33.0%   63.3%
LIPSCOMB   31.2%   77.4%
CASTRO   31.1%   50.8%
HUDSPETH   22.0%   10.9%

[roxas11]

If Texas does flip blue it would ugh be almost like a bookend to the Reagan era. Texas became a Republican state in 1980 and during the Republican Revolution and turns back Dem right as the Reagan coalition collapses


Thats the reason why I dont want Texas to flip as I want Reaganites to still be in charge of the GOP (obviously revamped for the 2020s though) and Texas flipping would mark the end of that too.

In many ways Trumps presidency was just as much of a rejection of Reagan than it was of Obama
Everthing from trade to Reagan pro immigration policies have been abandoned by Trump

I mean can you imagine a Trump era Republican saying something like this about immigration
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ednq_vKPdQE&ab_channel=LarryG
    
I honestly don't think Reagan would even be accepted in Trump's republican party

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

One other thing to note is it seems like, among the counties that voted Dem/for Beto but have relatively low turnout compared to 2018, it seems like rural Hispanic counties dominate those.

Some examples of that are Maverick County (which Beto won by 44.3% but which has only 43.8% of 2018's turnout), Jim Hogg county (which gave Beto a 44% margin but where there is only 47.8% of 2018's turnout so far), and Brooks County (49.5% of 2018 turnout, gave Beto a 43.3% margin).

So, while turnout does seem to be relatively good in some urban Hispanic areas such as Nueces County (Corpus Christi), El Paso County (El Paso), and Cameron County (Brownsville), so far early vote turnout in rural and smaller-town Hispanic areas seems relatively weaker.

It is also that weakness in those rural Dem Hispanic counties that makes the negative correlation between turnout so far as a share of the 2018 total turnout and Cruz margin not be stronger. If it were not for these sorts of counties weighing things down with weak turnout, so far, then there would likely be a pretty clear positive correlation between Beto vote and high turnout relative to 2018 on the county level.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If this pace of 6+ million per day continues up to November 3 then it's entirely possible that more than half of the vote will be cast by then (70-80 million).

[NOVA Green]

One other thing to note is it seems like, among the counties that voted Dem/for Beto but have relatively low turnout compared to 2018, it seems like rural Hispanic counties dominate those.

Some examples of that are Maverick County (which Beto won by 44.3% but which has only 43.8% of 2018's turnout), Jim Hogg county (which gave Beto a 44% margin but where there is only 47.8% of 2018's turnout so far), and Brooks County (49.5% of 2018 turnout, gave Beto a 43.3% margin).

So, while turnout does seem to be relatively good in some urban Hispanic areas such as Nueces County (Corpus Christi), El Paso County (El Paso), and Cameron County (Brownsville), so far early vote turnout in rural and smaller-town Hispanic areas seems relatively weaker.

It is also that weakness in those rural Dem Hispanic counties that makes the negative correlation between turnout so far as a share of the 2018 total turnout and Cruz margin not be stronger. If it were not for these sorts of counties weighing things down with weak turnout, so far, then there would likely be a pretty clear positive correlation between Beto vote and high turnout relative to 2018 on the county level.

As someone who lived in TX (Harris County) for 4 Years back in the early / Mid 2010s and was following the whole "BlueTejas" deal, there were interesting well sourced documents about how working-class Latinos are not only much more heavily DEM (At that point something like 80-20 D) than Middle-Class and Upper-Middle Class Latinos, but also tended to vote much less frequently for Midterm Elections.

I would imagine that 2020 would be a reversion to Turnout levels akin to 2016 (And quite likely higher) among this demographic.

2018 BETO vs Cruz swing were heavily based upon dramatic shifts among Anglo voters in the large metropolitan areas of TX, which was a trend heavily visible in 2016, especially in Upper Mid-class suburbs and city neighborhoods.

It would be interesting to do an analysis of precinct EV vs ED turnout in heavily Latino communities in places like Harris County, Bexar County, etc...

Yeah-- you're right the RGV is perhaps more visible, simply because the population is so heavily Latino, vs trying to parse out precincts in Bexar, Austin, Houston, Cy-Fair, etc...