2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Crumpets]

We've officially hit 40,000,000 votes nation-wide.

[redjohn]

WI clocked in nearly 200,000 votes on the first day of EV + Postal Office running again. Democrat counties are now close to 75% returns on VBM ballots.

Yes! It'll be interesting seeing how many additional Democrats end up voting on election day. Most of Biden's vote in the state will almost certainly come from early/absentee voting.

[Tintrlvr]

So...let me get this straight.
It is apparently a good thing for Democrats that there is extremely high in-person voter turnout in Texas....but in nearly every other state we have data, Republicans outnumber Democrats with the in-person vote?

It's almost as if Texas doesn't have a wide Absentee system where Democratic votes will go. It's almost that way, because it is that way.

Also, the Texas early vote numbers are in places that are either heavily Democratic, or trending Democratic, so that's where the optimism comes from.

To add to this, Texas has historically had among the lowest voter turnout rates in the country, and the potential voters who don't turn out have always been disproportionately Democrats. Demographically, Texas has been punching way below its weight for the Democrats for a long time as a result. It's therefore hard to imagine high turnout ever being a bad sign for Democrats in Texas, unlike many other states where turnout issues affect both parties in different and more subtle ways and a more nuanced understanding is appropriate.

[Tintrlvr]

!!!

https://twitter.com/ashtonpittman/status/1318935754232516608

It's great that black voters are doing well at turning in their absentee ballots, but these are pretty low numbers of votes compared to the total numbers of votes that will be cast in MS (for example, the Hinds figure is still only 8% of the 2016 vote total), so it's hard to take them to mean much (other than that Democrats are especially likelier to request and submit absentee ballots this year than in 2016, which isn't news).

[Crumpets]

!!!

https://twitter.com/ashtonpittman/status/1318935754232516608

Wow! I wonder if there's some Doug Jones effect here of people who had thought their vote didn't count for anything reconsidering after seeing him barely win next door.

[TopShelfGoal]

Man the NC voter file is so detailed and with so many early voters the Biden campaign so much data in that state to literally go and physically turn out D voters that haven't voted yet.

[xavier110]

AZ breaks 1m ballots cast two weeks before election day (out of 4m registered voters and 3m early ballot requests). There were 2.6m ballots cast in 2016 (74% turnout among registered voters).

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1318939182627123200

[DINGO Joe]

!!!

https://twitter.com/ashtonpittman/status/1318935754232516608

It's great that black voters are doing well at turning in their absentee ballots, but these are pretty low numbers of votes compared to the total numbers of votes that will be cast in MS (for example, the Hinds figure is still only 8% of the 2016 vote total), so it's hard to take them to mean much (other than that Democrats are especially likelier to request and submit absentee ballots this year than in 2016, which isn't news).

MS Absentee ballot rules are probably the worst in the US. 

[Non Swing Voter]

where are people getting the idea that Republicans are outpacing Democrats in in-person early voting?

This is the aggregated national numbers according to the Elections Project:

Democrats   1,273,396   41.5
Republicans   1,143,363   37.3

[Non Swing Voter]

I am starting to think the Republican worries about North Carolina are real.  If you look at some of the deeply democratic counties they are turning out big.  Like Durham.  It also looks like Charlotte is turning out pretty well.  And you have about 500k people who didn't vote in 2016 who have already voted. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

MT's numbers are coming in pretty strong, which is a very good sign. 2018 proved there were A LOT of Democrats in MT who didn't show up in 2018.

Also; imagine if TX gets over 100% of it's 2016 total before election day. It's not impossible considering TX has historically low turnout rates but now that it's in the national spotlight that seems to be changing. Still very unlikely, but not impossible.

[Brittain33]

“Jeff Davis (60% Black)”

Of course

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Man the NC voter file is so detailed and with so many early voters the Biden campaign so much data in that state to literally go and physically turn out D voters that haven't voted yet.

Is there anywhere that sorts it by congressional district? I want to see the returns for NC-11.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ameliatd/status/1318884693580914689

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So...let me get this straight.
It is apparently a good thing for Democrats that there is extremely high in-person voter turnout in Texas....but in nearly every other state we have data, Republicans outnumber Democrats with the in-person vote?

It's almost as if Texas doesn't have a wide Absentee system where Democratic votes will go. It's almost that way, because it is that way.

Also, the Texas early vote numbers are in places that are either heavily Democratic, or trending Democratic, so that's where the optimism comes from.

So you are correct, Texas requires an excuse for an absentee ballot, but they aren’t the only state.
Let’s look at the only real comparison we have which has partisan registration data (because Targetsmart is likely trash) which is Kentucky.

In Kentucky, in-person numbers are still small, but Democrats have about 45% of the vote while Republicans have 49%.
While KY is a ruby red state, Democrats still technically have a minor voter registration advantage (DINOs mainly)

Even with a slight voter registration advantage, Democrats still lag in in-person voting in a state that requires an excuse for an absentee ballot. Now there is one caveat, KY accepts Covid-19 concerns as an excuse and Texas does not, so that may have a small impact, but would it really be enough to change such a gap?

Uh, yeah? It's not a small impact.

Mail in votes cast in Kentucky: 289,220 (68.4 D-26.1R)
In person early votes in Kentucky: 108,922 (49.5 R-45.4 D)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

MT's numbers are coming in pretty strong, which is a very good sign. 2018 proved there were A LOT of Democrats in MT who didn't show up in 2018.

Also; imagine if TX gets over 100% of it's 2016 total before election day. It's not impossible considering TX has historically low turnout rates but now that it's in the national spotlight that seems to be changing. Still very unlikely, but not impossible.

A lot of Beto counties or Beto-trending counties (Denton, Collin) will almost definitely be over 100% before Election Day.

Harris, Travis, and Williamson will while Bexar, Hidalgo, Dallas, Tarrant, Cameron, and El Paso are on the knife's edge of making it.

[Rep Jessica]

FL: First batch of mail votes for the day are in!

Dem: 1,454,864 (+531,735)
Rep: 923,129
NPA/Other: 634,160

Total: 3,012,153

[wbrocks67]

Surprised no one is talking about Nebraska, where 310K people have already voted, and a plurality is still Democrats. They also have a much higher return rate among mail-ins than Reps do - 70% vs 57%

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Surprised no one is talking about Nebraska, where 310K people have already voted, and a plurality is still Democrats. They also have a much higher return rate among mail-ins than Reps do - 70% vs 57%

Probably because NE-SEN is not competitive because of Dems splitting between Janicek and the write-in.

[Non Swing Voter]

FL: First batch of mail votes for the day are in!

Dem: 1,454,864 (+531,735)
Rep: 923,129
NPA/Other: 634,160

Total: 3,012,153

Getting closer to 600k!

[GP270watch]

FL: First batch of mail votes for the day are in!

Dem: 1,454,864 (+531,735)
Rep: 923,129
NPA/Other: 634,160

Total: 3,012,153

Getting closer to 600k!

Must subtract the Democrats deficit in early in person voting.

[Tender Branson]

[tweet]

Ughhhh.

For the 100th time: these lines are an abomination !

I wonder when the US will have a system in place like other civilized Western countries that allow people to go in, vote and leave within 5 minutes ?

2050 ?

2100 ?

[GP270watch]

[tweet]

Ughhhh.

For the 100th time: these lines are an abomination !

I wonder when the US will have a system in place like other civilized Western countries that allow people to go in, vote and leave within 5 minutes ?

2050 ?

2100 ?

 It's clear one party doesn't want people to vote because they think Democracy is against their corporate, religious, and crony capitalism agenda.

[Bootes Void]

[tweet]

Ughhhh.

For the 100th time: these lines are an abomination !

I wonder when the US will have a system in place like other civilized Western countries that allow people to go in, vote and leave within 5 minutes ?

2050 ?

2100 ?

I mean it's early voting and alot of people want to vote right away. Most states don't go on full capacity until election day

[Gass3268]

[tweet]

Ughhhh.

For the 100th time: these lines are an abomination !

I wonder when the US will have a system in place like other civilized Western countries that allow people to go in, vote and leave within 5 minutes ?

2050 ?

2100 ?

This was also before the polling place even opened.