2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Brittain33]

I'm surprised some on here are upset at the idea that FL could once again go for Trump.
anybody who saw the results in 2018 election should no be shocked that this is the state that Trump probably wil keep in 2020.

OF COURSE Florida could still go for Trump. But Republicans barely outpacing Dems in EV while Dems have an enormous edge in VBM isn’t evidence that it’s happened, even though it could happen. Honestly the reactions to Florida’s and Nevada’s results here last night is embarrassing.

[Brittain33]

GOP gets their first single day early vote win in NC narrowly, but Dems still increase the total raw ballot lead slightly due to mail-in ballots

Cool cool, so by the dominant logic of this thread that means Trump will win NC

[Flabuckeye]

I don't get all the hand ringing about the Dem-Rep difference in Florida nor the phantom 600,000.  This is ALL about Democrats focusing on their own turnout.


Trump beat Clinton in 2016 by 112,911

Republicans turned out 81.2% of the 4.577M Rs or 3,716,524 Rs  (860K didn't vote)
Democrats turned out only 74.5% of 4.908M Ds or 3,651,552 Ds (1.256 didn't vote)
NPAs turned out only 63.3%

Had democrats raised turnout 4 pts to 78.5%-  200,000+ Dem votes
Had democrats raised turnout to the level of Rs 81.2%-   330,000+ Dem votes

Democrats just need to match that of Republican Turnout to win.   This is because NPAs will likely fall their way, they did in 2016 and probably will win them higher in 2020.  Dems should hope NPAs increase their turnout as well

Current Turnout State
Dems at 31.5% on pace to blow away the 53.9% turnout at end of Early Voting 2016
Reps at 23.1% on way to try to match 55.7 turnout at end of Early Voting 2016
NPAs at 18.3% well on way to match 41.0% turnout at end of Early Voting 2016

[Flabuckeye]

Florida numbers in (with Miami Dade)

Republicans up 41,039 in In person early
Democrats up 527,836 in Mail   (was 482,504 yesterday)

Net Democrats up 486,797....   increase of 8,105 over yesterday

[Hindsight was 2020]

Florida numbers in (with Miami Dade)

Republicans up 41,039 in In person early
Democrats up 527,836 in Mail   (was 482,504 yesterday)

Net Democrats up 486,797....   increase of 8,105 over yesterday

Safe R/s

[Gass3268]

Wisconsin passed 1 million voters yesterday, with at least 75,000 choosing to vote absentee in person. I’ll edit this post later with more details.

[vitoNova]

Blue Dog Democrats finally coming home...and voting Trump. 

[Crumpets]

The US Elections Project has turnout in Texas at 59.2% of the 2016 vote. I can't see this being anything other than the highest possible turnout model in polls for the state. We should look at anything with a high likely voter screen with some level of skepticism.

[wbrocks67]

The US Elections Project has turnout in Texas at 59.2% of the 2016 vote. I can't see this being anything other than the highest possible turnout model in polls for the state. We should look at anything with a high likely voter screen with some level of skepticism.

You mean look at anything with a low likely voter screen with skepticism?

[Crumpets]

The US Elections Project has turnout in Texas at 59.2% of the 2016 vote. I can't see this being anything other than the highest possible turnout model in polls for the state. We should look at anything with a high likely voter screen with some level of skepticism.

You mean look at anything with a low likely voter screen with skepticism?

I don't know the wording. If they have a very high standard for what constitutes a likely voter, treat it with skepticism.

[wbrocks67]

The US Elections Project has turnout in Texas at 59.2% of the 2016 vote. I can't see this being anything other than the highest possible turnout model in polls for the state. We should look at anything with a high likely voter screen with some level of skepticism.

You mean look at anything with a low likely voter screen with skepticism?

I don't know the wording. If they have a very high standard for what constitutes a likely voter, treat it with skepticism.

I think I know what you're trying to say, and it's why I think TX polls will be decently off this year. They won't be able to capture all of these voters who are coming out, many of whom may have been considered 'low propensity' in the past

[Rep Jessica]

BritishSocialConservative
@BritishConserv3
·
2h
Holy moly, The GOP is winning the early vote in Miami-Dade!
Quote Tweet
UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
 · 2h
MIAMI-DADE Day 2 Early Vote:

Rep 16,521
Dem 16,146
NPA/Other 9,263
Total 41,930

MIAMI-DADE Day 2 VBM:

Dem 19,425
Rep 9,010
NPA/Other 8,779
Total 37,214

[Hindsight was 2020]

BritishSocialConservative
@BritishConserv3
·
2h
Holy moly, The GOP is winning the early vote in Miami-Dade!
Quote Tweet
UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
 · 2h
MIAMI-DADE Day 2 Early Vote:

Rep 16,521
Dem 16,146
NPA/Other 9,263
Total 41,930

MIAMI-DADE Day 2 VBM:

Dem 19,425
Rep 9,010
NPA/Other 8,779
Total 37,214

Still not good for reps due to VBM being lopsided

[Dr. Arch]

BritishSocialConservative
@BritishConserv3
·
2h
Holy moly, The GOP is winning the early vote in Miami-Dade!
Quote Tweet
UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
 · 2h
MIAMI-DADE Day 2 Early Vote:

Rep 16,521
Dem 16,146
NPA/Other 9,263
Total 41,930

MIAMI-DADE Day 2 VBM:

Dem 19,425
Rep 9,010
NPA/Other 8,779
Total 37,214

Overall D gain of over 10,000 in Miami-Dade and nearly 10,000 statewide.

[Gass3268]

Big Democratic leads in the early vote is starting to show itself in polling:

https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1318930985489149952?s=20

[wbrocks67]

BritishSocialConservative
@BritishConserv3
·
2h
Holy moly, The GOP is winning the early vote in Miami-Dade!
Quote Tweet
UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
 · 2h
MIAMI-DADE Day 2 Early Vote:

Rep 16,521
Dem 16,146
NPA/Other 9,263
Total 41,930

MIAMI-DADE Day 2 VBM:

Dem 19,425
Rep 9,010
NPA/Other 8,779
Total 37,214

Is this the new GOP talking point? "VBM votes don't matter"?

[It’s so Joever]

So...let me get this straight.
It is apparently a good thing for Democrats that there is extremely high in-person voter turnout in Texas....but in nearly every other state we have data, Republicans outnumber Democrats with the in-person vote?

[Malarkey Decider]

So...let me get this straight.
It is apparently a good thing for Democrats that there is extremely high in-person voter turnout in Texas....but in nearly every other state we have data, Republicans outnumber Democrats with the in-person vote?

It's almost as if Texas doesn't have a wide Absentee system where Democratic votes will go. It's almost that way, because it is that way.

Also, the Texas early vote numbers are in places that are either heavily Democratic, or trending Democratic, so that's where the optimism comes from.

[EJ24]

So...let me get this straight.
It is apparently a good thing for Democrats that there is extremely high in-person voter turnout in Texas....but in nearly every other state we have data, Republicans outnumber Democrats with the in-person vote?

I think it's more of where the majority of the early vote is coming from in Texas, which is primarily suburbs trending towards Democrats.

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1318932975183069184?s=21

[Gass3268]

So...let me get this straight.
It is apparently a good thing for Democrats that there is extremely high in-person voter turnout in Texas....but in nearly every other state we have data, Republicans outnumber Democrats with the in-person vote?

Texas has extremely strict mail voting rules, so the vast majority of folks have to do in-person. That’s no the same for Florida, Nevada, or other states. You are comparing apples to oranges.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

So...let me get this straight.
It is apparently a good thing for Democrats that there is extremely high in-person voter turnout in Texas....but in nearly every other state we have data, Republicans outnumber Democrats with the in-person vote?

Texas doesn't have a robust VBM system, you can only VBM if you're 65+ or disabled.

[It’s so Joever]

So...let me get this straight.
It is apparently a good thing for Democrats that there is extremely high in-person voter turnout in Texas....but in nearly every other state we have data, Republicans outnumber Democrats with the in-person vote?

It's almost as if Texas doesn't have a wide Absentee system where Democratic votes will go. It's almost that way, because it is that way.

Also, the Texas early vote numbers are in places that are either heavily Democratic, or trending Democratic, so that's where the optimism comes from.

So you are correct, Texas requires an excuse for an absentee ballot, but they aren’t the only state.
Let’s look at the only real comparison we have which has partisan registration data (because Targetsmart is likely trash) which is Kentucky.

In Kentucky, in-person numbers are still small, but Democrats have about 45% of the vote while Republicans have 49%.
While KY is a ruby red state, Democrats still technically have a minor voter registration advantage (DINOs mainly)

Even with a slight voter registration advantage, Democrats still lag in in-person voting in a state that requires an excuse for an absentee ballot. Now there is one caveat, KY accepts Covid-19 concerns as an excuse and Texas does not, so that may have a small impact, but would it really be enough to change such a gap?

[Dr. Arch]

WI clocked in nearly 200,000 votes on the first day of EV + Postal Office running again. Democrat counties are now close to 75% returns on VBM ballots.

[OneJ]

!!!

https://twitter.com/ashtonpittman/status/1318935754232516608