2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

There is only one early voting site per county in Ohio.  All of Cleveland to one site. Ridiculous.
Same in Cincy and Columbus. Thank you to Republicans in the governors mansion and controlling the legislature. 

On another front anyone have any intel why Miami Dade’s numbers didn’t move at all today?

I think that the Secretary of State of Ohio has the option to allow more but is choosing not to. 

I also read that the Mayor of Miami Dade is waiting til as late as possible to open voting in the county for sending out balloting/early voting, which is why Miami's numbers have been slower than other big counties. 

It's really pathetic that Republicans can't just try to govern and instead try to game the system to win.

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida could be 700k lead for dems before election day if this holds up. i remember people saying 500 k would be sufficient but that will be reached easily

Thought the goal was 600k? 

At any rate it looks like they are on track to blow well past both numbers unless Republicans start voting early in big numbers to keep up with expected Democratic turnout.

[republican1993]

Florida could be 700k lead for dems before election day if this holds up. i remember people saying 500 k would be sufficient but that will be reached easily

don't dems need at least a 20 point lead going into election day to win?

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida could be 700k lead for dems before election day if this holds up. i remember people saying 500 k would be sufficient but that will be reached easily

don't dems need at least a 20 point lead going into election day to win?

Right now it's 50-30-20 (Dems, Rep, Ind).  The independents are probably skewing towards Democrats in terms of their actual vote, so right now Democrats probably do have a 20 point lead. 

[republican1993]

Florida could be 700k lead for dems before election day if this holds up. i remember people saying 500 k would be sufficient but that will be reached easily

don't dems need at least a 20 point lead going into election day to win?

Right now it's 50-30-20 (Dems, Rep, Ind).  The independents are probably skewing towards Democrats in terms of their actual vote, so right now Democrats probably do have a 20 point lead. 

do you think republicans need to get to at leas 35%? or what

[Minnesota Mike]

Florida could be 700k lead for dems before election day if this holds up. i remember people saying 500 k would be sufficient but that will be reached easily

Thought the goal was 600k? 

At any rate it looks like they are on track to blow well past both numbers unless Republicans start voting early in big numbers to keep up with expected Democratic turnout.

Dems need at least a 700K lead in Absentees since they have an 800K lead in Absentee requests. What kind of margin they need in in person early voting is anyone's guess.

[walleye26]

According to the city of Madison’s clerk, there are 190,000 registered voters. 100,000 absentees have been requested, with 65,100 returned (as of yesterday evening).

[kph14]

Florida could be 700k lead for dems before election day if this holds up. i remember people saying 500 k would be sufficient but that will be reached easily

Thought the goal was 600k?  

At any rate it looks like they are on track to blow well past both numbers unless Republicans start voting early in big numbers to keep up with expected Democratic turnout.

Dems need at least a 700K lead in Absentees since they have an 800K lead in Absentee requests. What kind of margin they need in in person early voting is anyone's guess.

Can people please stop making this completely arbitrary calculations? Nobody knows how the NPA voters are going to vote. Nobody knows how many voters will show up on election day. You can't come to a meaningful conclusion based on early voting data. I know it's frustrating but that is what it is

[Splash]

Michigan: Notable in today's update, Oakland County surpassed Wayne (Detroit) in terms of the percentage of mail-in ballots returned. I wouldn't be surprised if Oakland also surpasses Wayne in terms of raw ballots returned within the next couple of days.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/NCSBE/status/1316887674301652992

How does that compare to 2016?

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/NCSBE/status/1316887674301652992

How does that compare to 2016?

2016 was 166,000

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/NCSBE/status/1316887674301652992

How does that compare to 2016?

2016 was 166,000

NICE

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia: 156,126 in-person ballots were cast on Thursday. Numbers for the mail ballots received today are not yet available, but when added to today's in-person total could mean around 200k votes being cast/received on Thursday. On the same comparable day in 2016, 95,570 in-person votes were cast.

In all, 540,013 in-person votes have been cast in Georgia. On the same comparable day in 2016, this number was 332,561.

Excluding the mail ballots received on Thursday, Georgia is now up to 1,072,282 in-person and mail ballots received.

[Tender Branson]

Please remember that there’s an early rush of many people voting or requesting mail ballots, but that this will taper off significantly as Election Day approaches.

We have seen the same thing here in Vienna: record early voting and requests, and hardly anything in the final week before Election Day.

Election Day itself had pretty bad turnout here, but this could be different in the US, with hordes of Trump supporters voting.

You cannot really say that turnout will be much higher because many people are voting early.

In Vienna, turnout was eventually 9.5% lower than last time.

[philly09]

Georgia: 156,126 in-person ballots were cast on Thursday. Numbers for the mail ballots received today are not yet available, but when added to today's in-person total could mean around 200k votes being cast/received on Thursday. On the same comparable day in 2016, 95,570 in-person votes were cast.

In all, 540,013 in-person votes have been cast in Georgia. On the same comparable day in 2016, this number was 332,561.

Excluding the mail ballots received on Thursday, Georgia is now up to 1,072,282 in-person and mail ballots received.

Actually, it's now up to 1,125,730 votes per the late night update to Election Project

Almost 20 million votes have been cast already with CA and Fl leading with 2.3 and 2 million votes, respectively.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia: 156,126 in-person ballots were cast on Thursday. Numbers for the mail ballots received today are not yet available, but when added to today's in-person total could mean around 200k votes being cast/received on Thursday. On the same comparable day in 2016, 95,570 in-person votes were cast.

In all, 540,013 in-person votes have been cast in Georgia. On the same comparable day in 2016, this number was 332,561.

Excluding the mail ballots received on Thursday, Georgia is now up to 1,072,282 in-person and mail ballots received.

Actually, it's now up to 1,125,730 votes per the late night update to Election Project

Those appear to be the mail ballots: 53,448 in all. Since my numbers above were directly from a SoS press release, McDonald apparently has accessed the VBM received totals for Thursday. One issue I'm noticing is the GA SoS has 540,013 in-person votes reported and McDonald has 541,013: likely a typo on his part.

Deducting 1,000 voters exactly, this means that GA tallied 208,574 votes on Thursday: its highest one-day total yet.

[NOVA Green]

@Monstro: are you still doing the major county updates? Those were outstanding. Also, how is rural turnout compared to 2016, is it about even or is it significantly up?

I am! Sorry, haven't been able to sit down long enough to put the numbers in. I'll be gathering the Day 2 numbers now.

I'm not sure how to get the complete 2016 early numbers. The Texas elections site only provides early votes from the most populated ~20 counties for that year and 2018. And, to be honest, I don't want to spend hours scavenging across 250 county sites! The lack of county reporting is also why I can't find statewide early votes for 2016/2018

So although I don't have a complete list, the 2016 TX Precinct dataset that I use does have Early vs Eday breakdowns for 132/246 Counties in Texas.

I could even pivot them to do breakdown by Office and vote by Candidate, but this might not be the best location to do so.

So here are the Early Votes for US-PRES in 2016 for those Counties, in a series of screenshots (So many darn counties in TX!). I'm pretty sure some of these Counties might have EV data available from other sources, but yeah totally dig not wanting to trawl through each and every county of which many don't even report detailed election data.

I'm pretty sure my 2018 TX precinct data-set also has Early Vote totals for many counties as well, if anyone is interested.

Deleting the original screenshots, looks like I need to add an extra filter to my pivot table, since I believe it was sweeping County Totals as well into the totals, will modify once I can correct the data.

[NOVA Green]

Okay--- NOVA back.

So pulling data for every single precinct in Texas, for all major elections can inherently create issues when it comes to over 300k individual records in the 2nd largest State in the Union, especially when it comes to individual contributors to the project not always consistently using the  same types of naming conventions, queries, etc...

I believed I identified the major source of the error, because of how some of the original data sources queried had a "Total" value set up in the precinct column, creating a few inaccurate county results.

Unfortunately, there are a few secondary issues which I need to address before publishing the 2016 GE EV numbers by County.

Just got off work a few hours ago at the Factory, so not going to spend more time tonight on db mgmt. but will try to review Tomorrow.

Monstro--- PM me if you want some of these data sources Tomorrow, since I might not be able to sort everything out until this Weekend.

NOVA

[wbrocks67]

Does Ohio look terrible for Biden at the moment? only 47k in Cuyahoga so far?

Really depends on whether that's because people aren't returning their ballots or if the county is being slow to process returned ballots. For example, take a look at Cook County in Illinois... it's at 1% returned, but I'm willing to bet it's just the county dragging their feet when it comes to processing the ballots or reporting numbers.

Yep, it's like her in SE PA - Philly and Chester are counting their ballots at a brisker place, but Delaware, Montgomery, Bucks counties have like nothing in yet.

[Lief 🗽]

Wow.
https://twitter.com/winwithjmc/status/1317037625845436417?s=21
https://twitter.com/winwithjmc/status/1317041464938012672?s=21

[Panda Express]

Colorado update

Early voter turnout in Colorado increases a “bonkers” 2,400% from 2016

Democrats returning ballots at highest rate so far - are much more motivated to vote than Republicans

Of the 300,795 people who had voted as of late Wednesday, 46% were registered Democrats, who comprise just 30% of total active, registered voters in Colorado and typically vote later than Republicans. In 2016, over the first week, more Republicans than Democrats had voted

[wbrocks67]

At this rate, Republicans are really going to have to count on a robust Election Day turnout. Or this is just more proof that more Democrats are motivated to vote right now.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

At this rate, Republicans are really going to have to count on a robust Election Day turnout. Or this is just more proof that more Democrats are motivated to vote right now.

Republicans better hope their voters have a lot of patience because I'm sensing the lines on November 3 are gonna be enormous.

Wouldn't doubt a decent amount of their voters sit the election out due to not wanting to wait in line and/or disenchantment over Trump's dim chances (As if it couldn't get more 1980).

[Adam Griffin]

*NC snip*

2016 Exits: 70% White, 20% Black
2020 EV: 66.5% White, 25.4% Black

[TopShelfGoal]

Anyone else wouldn't mind rain, a thunderstorm or a blizzard on election day?