2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

We should wait for a couple days before we start to analyze. There will also be alot of republicans voting on election day due to trumps request

Republicans and the MAGA crowd will eventually turn out no doubt.  But getting your votes in early like this offers 2 strategic advantages:

1) The vote is locked in.  You don't have to worry about some of your voters getting sick on election night or some being turned off by long lines, etc.

2) You get real time analytics of turnout in the precincts you need turnout in.  Right now Biden is getting his votes locked in.  He can see where he's strong and where's he's weak (if anywhere) and might be able to divert resources more strategically. 

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1316076235336945666

If this is even remotely true, Chip Roy is toast and Michael McCaul is in serious jeopardy. Even Roger Williams should be nervous.

[ExSky]

It’s extremely bad news Dallas County couldn’t even surpass 2016.

Not really, atleast not for democrats. Might be a terrible sign for Republicans. Dallas County in 2016 had around 15k more in turnout day 1 compared to Day 1 in 2018 and Beto outdid Hillary by 20k in the total count by the end.

I’d be willing to bet this number is caused by the republicans in Dallas county not turning out.

Dallas has a lot of suburban country club Republicans who might decide to sit it out.

Here in Virginia we refer to "Suburban Country Club Republicans" simply as "Democrats" now.  But here they definitely don't sit out elections.

Give us a cycle or 2. We’ll be renaming those country club republicans soon 😉

[Adam Griffin]

Well, everybody (effectively) is registered in GA now: number has to be at least 97% of VEP at this point.

GEORGIA EASY VOTER REGISTRATION OPTIONS BREAK NEW RECORDS

(ATLANTA) – Georgia has hit a new record high registration level. As of October 6, Georgia had 7,587,625 registered voters throughout the state. Over 5 million of those came through automatic registration at the Department of Driver Services, a program of the Office of the Secretary to make registering new voters and updating voter information simple and easy.

“The continued growth of Georgia’s registered voting population is a testament to the simple and easy registration options the Secretary of State’s office provides to Georgia voters, including automated registration through DDS,” said Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. “As Georgia’s strong economy continues to attract the best and brightest from around the country, even during the pandemic, my office has the infrastructure in place for anyone who wants to register and participate in the democratic process.”

Georgia voters have taken advantage of the numerous convenient and easy ways to register. Of the 7.6 million registered voters according to preliminary data, 5,002,856 of them have registered through automatic registration at the Department of Driver Services. Another 734,000 of those registered voters did so online through the Secretary of State’s website. 1,850,464 registered with paper registration applications.

The final numbers will likely be higher as counties continue to process registration applications, including those submitted online and registrations completed by DDS.

The 7.587 million total registered voters for the November 2020 general elections represents a more than 600,000 registered voter increase since November 2018.

Historically, Georgia has had incredibly high voter registration rates. According to the 2016 U.S. Election Assistance Commission Survey, 95.4% of Georgia’s eligible voting population was registered to vote in 2016. The number of overall registered voters increased from 6.657 million in November 2016 to 6.944 million in November 2018.

Georgia is recognized as a national leader in elections. It was the first state in the country to implement the trifecta of automatic voter registration, at least 16 days of early voting (which has been called the “gold standard”), and no excuse absentee voting. Georgia continues to set records for voter turnout and election participation, seeing the largest increase in average turnout of any other state in the 2018 midterm election and record primary turnout in 2020, with over 1.1 million absentee by mail voters and over 1.2 million in-person voters utilizing Georgia’s new, secure, paper ballot voting system.

Also, just to clarify, apparently registrations (active + inactive) exceed 100% according to Michael McDonald's calculations via Census data:

Registrations (Total): 7587625
Registrations (Active): 7002328
Registrations (Inactive): 585297
Georgia VEP: 7383562*

Total, % of VEP: 102.76%
Active, % of VEP: 94.84%

* The denominator reflects the Census Bureau's July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019 voting-age population estimates interpolated to Nov. 1, 2020; non-citizen estimates from the 2019 1-Year American Community Survey; the year-end 2018 DOJ prison report; and the year-end 2018 DOJ probation and parole report.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Reserving judgement until we get the official early/VBM vote cumulative numbers

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Hidalgo cast 25k votes today, a new record. Not as much as I was hoping, but a promising sign at least that it’s outpacing 2016/2018

[libertpaulian]

Hidalgo cast 25k votes today, a new record. Not as much as I was hoping, but a promising sign at least that it’s outpacing 2016/2018

The RGV was what I was waiting for.  If Texas ends up being a close race, turnout there might be key.

[It’s so Joever]

Hidalgo cast 25k votes today, a new record. Not as much as I was hoping, but a promising sign at least that it’s outpacing 2016/2018

The RGV was what I was waiting for.  If Texas ends up being a close race, turnout there might be key.

Agreed. That part is likely what will determine Texas imo.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1316206848572379138

Finally

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1316206848572379138

Finally

Dallas - you need to keep voting big so Judge Clay keeps slaying on twitter.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Lol, and to think people were pointing to Dallas as a bad sign without even factoring in the astronomical absentees compared to 2016.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Lol, and to think people were pointing to Dallas as a bad sign without even factoring in the astronomical absentees compared to 2016.

That's why I'm waiting until I get the fuller picture from the TX elections website with updated VBM. It was bad enough yesterday with all the "Long lines = Voter suppression!" takes about GA before the announcement of the record-breaking first-day turnout & updated registration numbers.

Though I'd say any increase from 2016 and/or 2018 is good in my book

[Minnesota Mike]

Travis County

Early Voting Location Voters: 35,873
Mail Ballots Received: 22,577
Total: 58467
 % of Registered Voters (855,175): 6.84%

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct13.pdf

[Gass3268]

Hidalgo cast 25k votes today, a new record. Not as much as I was hoping, but a promising sign at least that it’s outpacing 2016/2018

I still follow Jessica Cisneros from the March primary and it really appears that her and others are really going to town organizing folks down in the RGV to vote for Biden.

[Gass3268]

Travis County

Early Voting Location Voters: 35,873
Mail Ballots Received: 22,577
Total: 58467
 % of Registered Voters (855,175): 6.84%

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct13.pdf

This is ~26% higher than 2016.

[Non Swing Voter]

does anyone know why there's basically no reporting from most of the suburban Philly counties?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Travis County

Early Voting Location Voters: 35,873
Mail Ballots Received: 22,577
Total: 58467
 % of Registered Voters (855,175): 6.84%

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct13.pdf

This is ~26% higher than 2016.

He’ll, Biden will likely even net 300k out of Travis too (was Beto +240k)

[forsythvoter]

Crazy that this is the same county that W won in 2000

Travis County

Early Voting Location Voters: 35,873
Mail Ballots Received: 22,577
Total: 58467
 % of Registered Voters (855,175): 6.84%

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct13.pdf

This is ~26% higher than 2016.

He’ll, Biden will likely even net 300k out of Travis too (was Beto +240k)

[forza nocta]

At least 600k early votes in Texas on Day 1, and thats with a few big counties missing.

https://twitter.com/breaking_et/status/1316225198643908609?s=21

[new_patomic]

With another update from Cali, we're officially over 13 million ballots returned.

With no final numbers yet from Texas or many other states. Could mean we almost hit 14 million yesterday.

[Holmes]

We’re well into one million+ votes per day territory now, especially as more states begin in person early voting.

[Bootes Void]

damn a day or two ago it was under ten million, now its 13 million. things are speeding up

[Holmes]

does anyone know why there's basically no reporting from most of the suburban Philly counties?

Maybe the county election officials aren’t reporting their numbers. Many counties have 30-50% turnout so I’m sure the election officials have the ballots. Just not sure if they’re processed and counted.

[ExSky]

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1316206848572379138

Finally

Dallas - you need to keep voting big so Judge Clay keeps slaying on twitter.

Clay might be headed to Austin sooner rather than later.

[Tender Branson]

Aside from the fact that GA has a horrible 3rd world election administration (long lines, poll books failing, voting machine fails), they have at least a system in place that automatically registers most people in the state. This should be applauded. Other states have as many as 20% eligible unregistered to vote.