2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My mom's in line waiting to vote (in Coppell) despite polls already closing in the north Dallas county suburbs. Voting Democratic the entire way.

Mother bagel has voted

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1316169327201210368

End of day, though everyone in line can still vote. Looks like Dallas fell just short of 2016.

Remember, though, 3 weeks of early voting rather than 2 in 2016.

[forza nocta]

Someone on reddit has created a graph comparing the early voting totals so far to the 2016 early vote. Cool to see.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14y7P-fiUDzSuGbxroSpbjBAXOvo4eNdqnclU3LTeeX4/htmlview#

Credit: https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/jaf26c/oc_visualization_of_early_vote_totals_comparing/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1316183007720542208

You know Judge Jenkins doesn't think we're breaking the record because there's no gif

[It’s so Joever]

It’s extremely bad news Dallas County couldn’t even surpass 2016.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It’s extremely bad news Dallas County couldn’t even surpass 2016.

Tbf we are cannibalizing some votes by mail in voting this year, with rates being double and triple the norms in many large areas.

[forza nocta]

So Harris county doubled the 2016 early vote, while Dallas did LESS? Why the big difference

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

So, which states are looking good, and which states aren't? I see that Texas is disappointing us.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So Harris county doubled the 2016 early vote, while Dallas did LESS? Why the big difference

Maybe (I am not sure) they are including mail in votes in their count, while if you include mail in votes in dallas' count you get well over 80k?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

My number one takeaway from the numbers up and down the country so far: at long last, there is no [Inks]ing "enthusiasm gap" in Trump's favor this year.

[ExSky]

It’s extremely bad news Dallas County couldn’t even surpass 2016.

Not really, atleast not for democrats. Might be a terrible sign for Republicans. Dallas County in 2016 had around 15k more in turnout day 1 compared to Day 1 in 2018 and Beto outdid Hillary by 20k in the total count by the end.

I’d be willing to bet this number is caused by the republicans in Dallas county not turning out.

[JerryArkansas]

So Harris county doubled the 2016 early vote, while Dallas did LESS? Why the big difference

Maybe (I am not sure) they are including mail in votes in their count, while if you include mail in votes in dallas' count you get well over 80k?

Nope they definitely aren't.  When did Dallas close?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It’s extremely bad news Dallas County couldn’t even surpass 2016.

Not really, atleast not for democrats. Might be a terrible sign for Republicans. Dallas County in 2016 had around 15k more in turnout day 1 compared to Day 1 in 2018 and Beto outdid Hillary by 20k in the total count by the end.

I’d be willing to bet this number is caused by the republicans in Dallas county not turning out.

We also don’t know that early vote + absentees don’t significantly outnumber 2016’s here, and I’d bet they do

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So Harris county doubled the 2016 early vote, while Dallas did LESS? Why the big difference

Maybe (I am not sure) they are including mail in votes in their count, while if you include mail in votes in dallas' count you get well over 80k?

Nope they definitely aren't.  When did Dallas close?

Ah sh!t then. 7pm central time, same as Harris.

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1316189438775619584

my stupid generation

[Non Swing Voter]

Really digging these Clay Jenkins updates. 

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

It’s extremely bad news Dallas County couldn’t even surpass 2016.

Not really, atleast not for democrats. Might be a terrible sign for Republicans. Dallas County in 2016 had around 15k more in turnout day 1 compared to Day 1 in 2018 and Beto outdid Hillary by 20k in the total count by the end.

I’d be willing to bet this number is caused by the republicans in Dallas county not turning out.

Dallas has a lot of suburban country club Republicans who might decide to sit it out.

[republican1993]

You can track live voter turnout in Tarrant here, and even see turnout by the hour.

https://www.tarrantcounty.com/en/elections/Upcoming-Election-Information/Live_Turn_Out_Widget.html

If that's just today's in-person numbers and not VBM, then Jesus!

42,402 early votes from today + 32,089 VBM ballots (not including today) = ~74,491 early votes

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth) (On first day of early voting)
2012:   52,225       5.4% of registered voters
2016:   65,156       6.1%
2018:   62,971       5.6%
~2020: 74,491       6.2%

Doesn’t seem like a huge increase.

agreed all these videos of "long lines" is the same videos and stuff we saw in 2016

[The Mikado]

Really digging these Clay Jenkins updates.  

Halloween 2018 (watch the second one!)

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1057694403786129413https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1057690266675675137

Edit: the executive of the US' 8th most populated county is a goofy mfer.

[Bootes Void]

We should wait for a couple days before we start to analyze. There will also be alot of republicans voting on election day due to trumps request

[Stockdale for Veep]

My clerk (finally) emailed me back about the online tracker not being up to date.

They received my completed ballot weeks ago, the reason for the tracker error is that my rural county has too many requests and they couldn't keep up.


Driftless is back baby!

[ExSky]

You can track live voter turnout in Tarrant here, and even see turnout by the hour.

https://www.tarrantcounty.com/en/elections/Upcoming-Election-Information/Live_Turn_Out_Widget.html

If that's just today's in-person numbers and not VBM, then Jesus!

42,402 early votes from today + 32,089 VBM ballots (not including today) = ~74,491 early votes

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth) (On first day of early voting)
2012:   52,225       5.4% of registered voters
2016:   65,156       6.1%
2018:   62,971       5.6%
~2020: 74,491       6.2%

Doesn’t seem like a huge increase.

agreed all these videos of "long lines" is the same videos and stuff we saw in 2016

Turnout doesn’t need to be miraculous. It looks good enough to make a large impact. What’s more important is then voting shift we are undergoing.

Bush +25 (2004

McCain +12 (2008)

Romney +17 (2012)

Trump + 8.5 (2016)

Beto O’Rourke +0.7 (2018). This county has not voted for a democrat for president since 1964 and will in all likelihood vote Biden

It is not so much the turnout in these areas. It is the massive exodus from the GOP that is turning Texas blue.

[Hassan 2022]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1316076235336945666

[Gass3268]

Can we please wait until all the numbers get officially posted, with VBM ballots included, before everyone freaks out?

[Non Swing Voter]

It’s extremely bad news Dallas County couldn’t even surpass 2016.

Not really, atleast not for democrats. Might be a terrible sign for Republicans. Dallas County in 2016 had around 15k more in turnout day 1 compared to Day 1 in 2018 and Beto outdid Hillary by 20k in the total count by the end.

I’d be willing to bet this number is caused by the republicans in Dallas county not turning out.

Dallas has a lot of suburban country club Republicans who might decide to sit it out.

Here in Virginia we refer to "Suburban Country Club Republicans" simply as "Democrats" now.  But here they definitely don't sit out elections.

[Non Swing Voter]

Really digging these Clay Jenkins updates.  

Halloween 2018 (watch the second one!)

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1057694403786129413https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1057690266675675137

Edit: the executive of the US' 8th most populated county is a goofy mfer.

Aaaaaaand I'm now officially following him on twitter.