2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Holmes]

On the other hand, Pennsylvania has a lot of Republicans in the Philadelphia suburbs that predominantly vote Democratic now, but are still registered as Republicans. I’m sure you’d see a similar situation in the Atlanta suburbs but there no party registration in Georgia. Party registration in PA, along with places like WV and KY, OK and northern FL doesn’t tell the full story.

[Non Swing Voter]

2016 PA dem lead; 900,000
2020 PA dem lead; 700,000

are you talking about voter registration? you should provide more context to your post.

I think so Ye, saw it on a tweet

November 2016
Dems 4,217,456 (48.3%)
Reps 3,301,182 (37.8%)
Other 1,204,339 (13.9%)
Total 8,722,977

October 2020
Dems 4,168,900 (46.9%)
Reps 3,451,514 (38.7%)
Other 1,277,325 (14.4%)
Total 8,897,739

In 2016, Dems lead over Reps was 916K (10.5%), while it's now 717K (8.2%). So yes, it's down, but PA is a very complex state and it's hard to tell whether these are truly people converting to R, or a bunch of ancestral Ds that have been voting R and now just making it official. You also have a lot of people in the PA suburbs as well who are still Republicans who aren't as fast to change their registration to D. (for example, i know one - my mom, she only *just* changed to D this year from being R for 30+ years)

The other problem with this narrative is that Dems lead was lower in 2018 (9.8%) than it was in 2016 (10.5%) and yet Casey and Wolf both won by double digits.

Right.  The party registration numbers don't tell the full story.  Clearly a large chunk of those "Democrats" were voting Republican consistently otherwise Democrats would be winning every election with such a massive advantage.  At least a lot of those people switching over is giving us a better idea of true D vs. R.  One could say that despite this transition Democrats still lead in the early vote by a wide margin, which is probably a bit more accurate in terms of who they are voting for than it would have been if those rural Democrats didn't switch party registration.

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Democratic early vote lead now around 360k

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

At this rate it probably will hit the 600k number in a couple weeks.

[Tintrlvr]

Florida Democratic early vote lead now around 360k

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

At this rate it probably will hit the 600k number in a couple weeks.

Request figures seem not to be changing. Are those only updated weekly or something?

[Skill and Chance]

2016 PA dem lead; 900,000
2020 PA dem lead; 700,000

are you talking about voter registration? you should provide more context to your post.

I think so Ye, saw it on a tweet

November 2016
Dems 4,217,456 (48.3%)
Reps 3,301,182 (37.8%)
Other 1,204,339 (13.9%)
Total 8,722,977

October 2020
Dems 4,168,900 (46.9%)
Reps 3,451,514 (38.7%)
Other 1,277,325 (14.4%)
Total 8,897,739

In 2016, Dems lead over Reps was 916K (10.5%), while it's now 717K (8.2%). So yes, it's down, but PA is a very complex state and it's hard to tell whether these are truly people converting to R, or a bunch of ancestral Ds that have been voting R and now just making it official. You also have a lot of people in the PA suburbs as well who are still Republicans who aren't as fast to change their registration to D. (for example, i know one - my mom, she only *just* changed to D this year from being R for 30+ years)

The other problem with this narrative is that Dems lead was lower in 2018 (9.8%) than it was in 2016 (10.5%) and yet Casey and Wolf both won by double digits.

Right.  The party registration numbers don't tell the full story.  Clearly a large chunk of those "Democrats" were voting Republican consistently otherwise Democrats would be winning every election with such a massive advantage.  At least a lot of those people switching over is giving us a better idea of true D vs. R.  One could say that despite this transition Democrats still lead in the early vote by a wide margin, which is probably a bit more accurate in terms of who they are voting for than it would have been if those rural Democrats didn't switch party registration.

I wouldn't rely on party registration for an analysis unless it's like Ohio where the statistic is based on the last primary you voted in.  A ton of people register with a party when they turn 18 and then never change it.  Whole bunch of Southern/Appalachian states with tons of registered D's voting R and a whole bunch of Mountain West/Plains states with registered R's voting D.

[brucejoel99]

My sister and I got our ballots a couple of weeks ago, but we're waiting to drop them off until Florida starts officially counting in a couple of days.

I voted straight D, though I broke with the party on their suggestion of the nonpartisan Soil and Water Commissioner. I also voted to retain all but three justices, and yes on 2, 5 and 6.

Same, my parents & I got our ballots on the day of the presidential debate IIRC, but we're waiting to drop them off 'til early voting starts next Mon. so we can just drop them off at an early voting site 5 minutes away from our house instead of having to go up to the Supervisor of Elections' office in northern Broward, which is like half-an-hour away from home.

Also voted straight D (though the Broward Dems didn't recommend a candidate for Soil & Water so I just looked them up & voted for the one whose record I thought was better), voted to retain all justices/judges, & yes on 2, 3, 5, & 6.

[wbrocks67]

Florida Democratic early vote lead now around 360k

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

At this rate it probably will hit the 600k number in a couple weeks.

This seems quite stunning, especially since aren't FL Dems notorious for returning their ballots in slow fashion?

[Bootes Void]

Florida Democratic early vote lead now around 360k

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

At this rate it probably will hit the 600k number in a couple weeks.

This seems quite stunning, especially since aren't FL Dems notorious for not returning their ballots in slow fashion?

Florida Dems have Trump as their motivator, not the state party of course

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Democratic early vote lead now around 360k

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

At this rate it probably will hit the 600k number in a couple weeks.

Request figures seem not to be changing. Are those only updated weekly or something?

At this point I bet few new people are requesting ballots.  Anyone who wants to vote now is probably just waiting til early voting starts soon.

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Democratic early vote lead now around 360k

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

At this rate it probably will hit the 600k number in a couple weeks.

This seems quite stunning, especially since aren't FL Dems notorious for returning their ballots in slow fashion?

Yes although it's a pretty different dynamic this year with covid.  I believe Dems usually over perform in in person early voting.  If that is also true this year then that would be a really good sign that the absentee ballots aren't just simply eating into Democrats who'd vote anyways. 

[Gass3268]

We got a surprising weekend absentee update in Wisconsin. Similar trends going on, but I have to say Milwaukee is really kicking butt right now! They returned 6,200 ballots since Friday's report. Only a little over 9,000 votes before they pass Dane County, who returned 4,054 since Friday. There is typically a surge on Monday/Tuesday after they've counted votes that came over the weekend. Wouldn't surprise me if Wisconsin cross over the 700,000 line then. Will have another map update on Tuesday.

[Tintrlvr]

Florida Democratic early vote lead now around 360k

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

At this rate it probably will hit the 600k number in a couple weeks.

Request figures seem not to be changing. Are those only updated weekly or something?

At this point I bet few new people are requesting ballots.  Anyone who wants to vote now is probably just waiting til early voting starts soon.

I feel like there are ordinarily lots of people requesting absentee ballots right up until the deadline. Not sure when that is in Florida, but here in New York the deadline to request an absentee ballot is not until late October (though at that point you're cutting it very fine on getting your ballot in on time).

Edit: The deadline to request an absentee ballot in Florida in October 24 (request has to be received by October 24). So there should definitely be more than zero new absentee requests showing up.

[GP270watch]

Florida Democratic early vote lead now around 360k

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html

At this rate it probably will hit the 600k number in a couple weeks.

Request figures seem not to be changing. Are those only updated weekly or something?

At this point I bet few new people are requesting ballots.  Anyone who wants to vote now is probably just waiting til early voting starts soon.

I feel like there are ordinarily lots of people requesting absentee ballots right up until the deadline. Not sure when that is in Florida but here in New York the deadline to request an absentee ballot is not until late October (though at that point you're cutting it very fine on getting your ballot in on time).

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/for-voters/voting/vote-by-mail/

 Everything you probably need to know about Florida VBM requests.

[republican1993]

We got a surprising weekend absentee update in Wisconsin. Similar trends going on, but I have to say Milwaukee is really kicking butt right now! They returned 6,200 ballots since Friday's report. Only a little over 9,000 votes before they pass Dane County, who returned 4,054 since Friday. There is typically a surge on Monday/Tuesday after they've counted votes that came over the weekend. Wouldn't surprise me if Wisconsin cross over the 700,000 line then. Will have another map update on Tuesday.

Are republicans turning out in the same numbers? i've been hearing from people the turnout is pretty good for both sides.

[Bootes Void]

Are republicans turning out in the same numbers? i've been hearing from people the turnout is pretty good for both sides.

Milwauke, Dane and a few blue counties have fairly strong turnout numbers but we dont know what the total turnout will be

[Gass3268]

We got a surprising weekend absentee update in Wisconsin. Similar trends going on, but I have to say Milwaukee is really kicking butt right now! They returned 6,200 ballots since Friday's report. Only a little over 9,000 votes before they pass Dane County, who returned 4,054 since Friday. There is typically a surge on Monday/Tuesday after they've counted votes that came over the weekend. Wouldn't surprise me if Wisconsin cross over the 700,000 line then. Will have another map update on Tuesday.

Are republicans turning out in the same numbers? i've been hearing from people the turnout is pretty good for both sides.

Turnout has been pretty good in Ozaukee and Waukesha, but middling in Washington. Northern Wisconsin has been pretty good too, but that's pretty mixed between traditional Democratic and Republican counties. Other than that most of the big Republican counties are below the state % right now.

[forsythvoter]

From my observations, in many cases it's not so much self-declared Republicans who are defecting to Biden but rather folks like me who self-identify as Independent but generally vote Republican. This latter group is defecting to Biden in pretty high numbers here in suburban Atlanta.

On the other hand, Pennsylvania has a lot of Republicans in the Philadelphia suburbs that predominantly vote Democratic now, but are still registered as Republicans. I’m sure you’d see a similar situation in the Atlanta suburbs but there no party registration in Georgia. Party registration in PA, along with places like WV and KY, OK and northern FL doesn’t tell the full story.

[Buzz]

Thread of Early Voting lines in GA
https://twitter.com/nicolecarrwsb/status/1315626970953256960?s=21

[ProgressiveModerate]

Thread of Early Voting lines in GA
https://twitter.com/nicolecarrwsb/status/1315626970953256960?s=21

Ofc GA was going to have it's fair share of problems

On the bright side, it seems like people are very eager to vote, which is a good thing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Thread of Early Voting lines in GA
https://twitter.com/nicolecarrwsb/status/1315626970953256960?s=21

Ofc GA was going to have it's fair share of problems

On the bright side, it seems like people are very eager to vote, which is a good thing.

The first day of early voting usually has enthusiastic turnout.  Let's see what it looks like on Wednesday or Thursday.

[DINGO Joe]

Regarding voter registration, I've spent some time trying to parse the voter registration shifts in Iowa and it is difficult.  since Oct 1, 2016 the Ds have added 70,000 voters the Rs 50,000 the NP has declined 30,000 and Other has increased 5,000 (voter registration in Iowa is roughly 1/3D, 1/3R and 1/3 NP/O).  But the actual growth in voters occurs in the large metro counties (Polk, Dallas, Story, Linn,  Johnson, Scott) which account for about 78,000 of the statewide increase of 95,000 and as you might expect the registration advantage skews heavily to the Ds with increases of 60,000 Ds 8,000 Rs 7,000 NP and 2,000 other.  That leaves D +10000 Rs +42000 NP down 37,000 Other +3,000, changes that are driven more by party switching than new voters. That doesn't mean that there aren't party switchers in the metro or new voters in the rurals, but it's much more likely that voters that are new to their party in the rural parts of the state are more likely to have been a voter in 2016 and probably for whatever party they've since shifted to.  Probably means the potential pool of crossover voters have shrunk considerably, especially in rural areas.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1315661570744225792?s=20

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1315661570744225792?s=20

Kansas has party breakdown, I believe. Any word on that?

[Non Swing Voter]

Vote dump from PA and MI. 

In PA, Dems have a 300k to 56k ballot lead.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html

Lots of votes in from Philly.

[Holmes]

Very happy to see the votes arriving and being processed quickly in Philly.