2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[brucejoel99]

FLORIDA

1,519,079 votes cast

Democratic 778,283 (51.2%)
Republican 443,157 (29.2%)
Others 297,639 (19.6%)

Dem lead increases to 335,126

Another ~180k ballots were processed today

The Florida numbers are becoming fairly stunning given that there's not in person voting yet (right?).

Correct, in-person early voting doesn't begin 'til Mon., Oct. 19th.

I am starting to think Mike Bloomberg is playing a big role here.  What else explains this.

Incorrect. As somebody on the ground, I'd contend that if Bloomberg is responsible in anyway, then it's only negligibly. The main factors at play here are the general trend of Democratic enthusiasm being through the f**king roof & the fact that a deadly global pandemic is currently occurring.

are old people in Florida turning on Trump in a meaningful way?

Certainly seems like it. The Villages comes to mind as an example of a heavily pro-Trump area that's recently seen a surge in pro-Biden support (relatively speaking, of course - unless Florida literally starts falling into the sea between now & Election Day, Trump still takes it).

How do we know the villages has seen such a shift?

It's evident on the ground. I sh*t you not, there was literally a golf cart parade held in support of him. That's not something Hillary or Obama ever got (but Trump did).

[republican1993]

AA vote in GA dropped 1% to 33% keeping an eye out if it will fall below 30... it's been dropping slowly with each day of new data.

[Holmes]

AA vote in GA dropped 1% to 33% keeping an eye out if it will fall below 30... it's been dropping slowly with each day of new data.

Wait for the early voting before really making any predictions. Same with North Carolina.

[republican1993]

AA vote in GA dropped 1% to 33% keeping an eye out if it will fall below 30... it's been dropping slowly with each day of new data.

Wait for the early voting before really making any predictions. Same with North Carolina.

agreed i can see it stabilizing around 30% anything above 35% is great, but a lot of the urban areas have reported besides really Gwinnett is behind

[Tender Branson]

There’s either going to be an unprecedented, massive partisan gap in person mail in voting or there’s going to be an unprecedented, massive democratic wave

The first.

Polls show that Biden wins mail-voters 80-20.

Trump wins Election Day voters 70-30.

In person early voters are more of a mixed crowd.

[GP270watch]

There’s either going to be an unprecedented, massive partisan gap in person mail in voting or there’s going to be an unprecedented, massive democratic wave

The first.

Polls show that Biden wins mail-voters 80-20.

Trump wins Election Day voters 70-30.

In person early voters are more of a mixed crowd.

Every election is different. Obama in Florida had strong Election Day performance in many counties to pull out victories even if he didn't outright win Election Day. Clinton got shellacked by Trump on Election Day 2016 in Florida, that might not be the case this year for obvious reasons.

 How Hillary Clinton lost Florida (Hint: It happened on Election Day)

 By Party ID Democrats had a 90k lead in 2016, but the real lead of actual voters was around 250k. But Trump had a swing of 360,000 on Election Day alone.

[Hnv1]

Do we have a county breakdown for Minnesota early voting?

[danny]

How do we know the villages has seen such a shift?

It's evident on the ground. I sh*t you not, there was literally a golf cart parade held in support of him. That's not something Hillary or Obama ever got (but Trump did).

This is just a Biden version of boaters for Trump. The Villages has well over 100K people, even a small percent of that would be many thousands of votes. Assuming this golf cart parade wasn't attended by tens of thousands of people, it doesn't tell us anything.

[wbrocks67]

AA vote in GA dropped 1% to 33% keeping an eye out if it will fall below 30... it's been dropping slowly with each day of new data.

Wait for the early voting before really making any predictions. Same with North Carolina.

That's when "Souls to the Polls" starts right?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Speaking of Georgia early voting:

Since Georgia’s chaotic primary last spring, election officials have scrambled to prevent another debacle.

Election directors across Georgia have hired thousands of poll workers, added tech support staff, bought additional voting equipment and improved absentee ballot processing times. They’ve been stocking up on masks and reviewing plans to social distance to protect voters and staff from the coronavirus.
...
Over 40,000 potential poll workers expressed interest to the secretary of state’s office, nonprofit groups and businesses, and their names were forwarded to local election officials to make hiring decisions.

But in some counties, staffing remains an issue for both early voting and Election Day.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/as-voting-starts-monday-georgia-aims-to-avoid-another-meltdown/5N2JKLBGM5GX7ODJUGMPOSJI3U/

More details at the link.

[Brittain33]

How do we know the villages has seen such a shift?

It's evident on the ground. I sh*t you not, there was literally a golf cart parade held in support of him. That's not something Hillary or Obama ever got (but Trump did).

This is just a Biden version of boaters for Trump. The Villages has well over 100K people, even a small percent of that would be many thousands of votes. Assuming this golf cart parade wasn't attended by tens of thousands of people, it doesn't tell us anything.

It's not quantitative evidence, but the fact that in a community where Democrats have always felt completely outnumbered and afraid to be public, you're pulling together enough to feel bold enough to go public and have multiple events (recently a ballot drop-off) is as meaningful as people noticing in late 2016, wow, there are a lot of Trump signs in rural Pennsylvania and northern Maine.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How do we know the villages has seen such a shift?

It's evident on the ground. I sh*t you not, there was literally a golf cart parade held in support of him. That's not something Hillary or Obama ever got (but Trump did).

This is just a Biden version of boaters for Trump. The Villages has well over 100K people, even a small percent of that would be many thousands of votes. Assuming this golf cart parade wasn't attended by tens of thousands of people, it doesn't tell us anything.

It's not quantitative evidence, but the fact that in a community where Democrats have always felt completely outnumbered and afraid to be public, you're pulling together enough to feel bold enough to go public and have multiple events (recently a ballot drop-off) is as meaningful as people noticing in late 2016, wow, there are a lot of Trump signs in rural Pennsylvania and northern Maine.

AP has a long article this morning about The Villages and the election.  Well worth reading.

https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-seniors-florida-michael-pence-b8bbfd3a87dc290a84b9ed9915a4cf63

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Do we know if all these votes in PA are valid, or do the ones not in the slips get invalidated on Election Day when they’re opened up and counted?

Does anyone have an answer for this

[Holmes]

Do we know if all these votes in PA are valid, or do the ones not in the slips get invalidated on Election Day when they’re opened up and counted?

Does anyone have an answer for this

Michael McDonald’s site doesn’t specify and he cites his source as the Pennsylvania SoS. I’m looking at the SoS’s site now but I’m not really finding anything. You might want to tweet McDonald and ask him directly.

[Lief 🗽]

The USPS stuff might have backfired on Trump. It looks like it scared a lot of Democrats into sending their ballots in as early as possible.

[Non Swing Voter]

The USPS stuff might have backfired on Trump. It looks like it scared a lot of Democrats into sending their ballots in as early as possible.

Yeah, I think so.  When you put a closer artificial deadline on something it encourages people to take it more seriously.  I bet the GOP shenanigans actually increase overall turnout. 

[Ljube]

The USPS stuff might have backfired on Trump. It looks like it scared a lot of Democrats into sending their ballots in as early as possible.

Could these be Democratic supervoters voting early?
Is there anybody left who will vote on Election Day?

[Holmes]

The USPS stuff might have backfired on Trump. It looks like it scared a lot of Democrats into sending their ballots in as early as possible.

Could these be Democratic supervoters voting early?
Is there anybody left who will vote on Election Day?

Of course there will be people left to vote on election day. Dems got 65 million votes the last two elections, so unless 65 million+ Dems mail their ballot or vote early, they will show up on Election Day.

[brucejoel99]

How do we know the villages has seen such a shift?

It's evident on the ground. I sh*t you not, there was literally a golf cart parade held in support of him. That's not something Hillary or Obama ever got (but Trump did).

This is just a Biden version of boaters for Trump. The Villages has well over 100K people, even a small percent of that would be many thousands of votes. Assuming this golf cart parade wasn't attended by tens of thousands of people, it doesn't tell us anything.

It's not quantitative evidence, but the fact that in a community where Democrats have always felt completely outnumbered and afraid to be public, you're pulling together enough to feel bold enough to go public and have multiple events (recently a ballot drop-off) is as meaningful as people noticing in late 2016, wow, there are a lot of Trump signs in rural Pennsylvania and northern Maine.

This. Of course it's anecdotal evidence that doesn't quantitatively tell us anything, but the fact that it's even able to happen at all is - in & of itself - telling us something. Again, this isn't something that happened for Hillary 4 years ago or even Obama in either election which - need people be reminded? - he actually won Florida.

[Malarkey Decider]

Update in Florida moves Democratic Lead to 340k.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think Democrats will get the coveted 600k vote lead in Florida before Election Day...  still not sure where 600k came from though...

[Skill and Chance]

I think Democrats will get the coveted 600k vote lead in Florida before Election Day...  still not sure where 600k came from though...

I am very hesitant to assume anything from EV reporting, other than this is likely to be one of the highest turnouts overall in the modern era.  Election day could be near unanimous for Trump in states with no-excuse EV and VBM.

[Gass3268]

I think Democrats will get the coveted 600k vote lead in Florida before Election Day...  still not sure where 600k came from though...

I am very hesitant to assume anything from EV reporting, other than this is likely to be one of the highest turnouts overall in the modern era.  Election day could be near unanimous for Trump in states with no-excuse EV and VBM.

I don't think it's going to be that extreme on election day. With a lot of minority groups, there is a legitimate fear that their ballots won't be counted if they vote by mail. Lots of those folks will vote early, but a number will vote on election day too.

[GP270watch]

I think Democrats will get the coveted 600k vote lead in Florida before Election Day...  still not sure where 600k came from though...

I am very hesitant to assume anything from EV reporting, other than this is likely to be one of the highest turnouts overall in the modern era.  Election day could be near unanimous for Trump in states with no-excuse EV and VBM.

I don't think it's going to be that extreme on election day. With a lot of minority groups, there is a legitimate fear that their ballots won't be counted if they vote by mail. Lots of those folks will vote early, but a number will vote on election day too.

 On top of that Hillary still left a lot of vote on the table in 2016. All around the world despite the high stakes and turmoil of the last five years we've seen young voters stay home and let older people decide their future. Biden campaign needs to do whatever outreach they can in these last 25 days to young voters.

[Bootes Void]

I think Democrats will get the coveted 600k vote lead in Florida before Election Day...  still not sure where 600k came from though...

I am very hesitant to assume anything from EV reporting, other than this is likely to be one of the highest turnouts overall in the modern era.  Election day could be near unanimous for Trump in states with no-excuse EV and VBM.

Some polls have shown almost half of Biden supporters will vote in person or in person election day, so it may not be as lopsided.