2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Minnesota Mike]

I try not to read too much into it since the use of mail voting is much greater in 2020 than 2016 but in Palm Beach county more Democrats (80,848) have cast mail ballots in 2020 than did during the entire 2016 election (74,079). The total mail vote is closing in too, 134,258 so far in 2020 vs 152,336 in 2016.

What if you combine VBM and early vote?

2016 VBM and early vote numbers by county in Florida.

https://dos.myflorida.com/media/697363/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2016-gen.pdf

About 240K voted early in Person in 2016 in Palm Beach so it was quite a bit bigger than MIB (152K). Will be interesting to see how much in person early votes drops compared to 2016.

[izixs]

Just early voted in Ohio here. Line was fairly slow, but survivable at a little over an hour wait. Suburb/near exurb area that tends to lean right in voting behavior. Republicans had a guy there, mainly to push the judge races I think, but not the Dems. But that's okay as I already did my research and voted for the criminal justice reform judges not the 'no legislating from the bench except when I do it' candidates. Those there trended older with maybe one or two people younger than I. Most of the line slowness was likely due to the safety precautions and limitations of the number of clerks working the counter inside.

Also, I scantron ballots.

[LimoLiberal]

At least one of the 700,000+ Virginia early votes is for Biden  

I voted No on the redistricting amendment.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

At least one of the 700,000+ Virginia early votes is for Biden 

I also voted NO on the redistricting amendment.

Are outside groups advertising to try and defeat that monstrosity amendment?

[CrimsonCommander688]

Just dropped off my ballot at the clerks office. This will be the first election I have voted by using an absentee ballot.

Welcome to the forum!

Straight D across the board?

Yep Straight D.

[LimoLiberal]

At least one of the 700,000+ Virginia early votes is for Biden  

I also voted NO on the redistricting amendment.

Are outside groups advertising to try and defeat that monstrosity amendment?

At least in Arlington, there's a highly organized campaign to defeat it. Signs went up last week on the medians that say "Vote No on 1. Stop Gerrymandering.". When I went to vote today there were at least three different volunteers with signs telling people to vote No with informational flyers to hand out. The Arlington Democratic Committee endorsed a No vote and their sample ballot (which I would estimate 50-60% of Arlington voters take) reflects that. I wrote something in the redistricting thread about how I think there's a pretty good chance it goes down.

[Non Swing Voter]

At least one of the 700,000+ Virginia early votes is for Biden  

I also voted NO on the redistricting amendment.

Are outside groups advertising to try and defeat that monstrosity amendment?

At least in Arlington, there's a highly organized campaign to defeat it. Signs went up last week on the medians that say "Vote No on 1. Stop Gerrymandering.". When I went to vote today there were at least three different volunteers with signs telling people to vote No with informational flyers to hand out. The Arlington Democratic Committee endorsed a No vote and their sample ballot (which I would estimate 50-60% of Arlington voters take) reflects that. I wrote something in the redistricting thread about how I think there's a pretty good chance it goes down.

Is this the Amendment that gives GOP judges more power?  I want Dems to gerrymander the sh*t out of VA.  No more playing fair until Texas and Florida do too. 

[Non Swing Voter]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

Dem lead in FL is now 260k.  Lots more votes from Orange came in.

[Holmes]

Miami-Dade sure is taking its sweet time.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Just dropped off my ballot at the clerks office. This will be the first election I have voted by using an absentee ballot.

Welcome to the forum!

Straight D across the board?

Yep Straight D.

Great work.  Now you have a full 4 weeks to spend recruiting every other person you know to do the same.  Vote vote vote vote vote, stack em high!  Only way to win.

[Non Swing Voter]

Miami-Dade sure is taking its sweet time.

Yes, what's up with that?  And still want to know what's up with Philly and Montgomery PA?

[Holmes]

Miami-Dade sure is taking its sweet time.

Yes, what's up with that?  And still want to know what's up with Philly and Montgomery PA?

For Miami-Dade, my guess would be that ballots were mailed out much later than the rest of the state, which is annoying.

[GP270watch]

 Miami-Dade is always slow with everything, even in prior years with the VBM and early vote updates. They always use a separate system as well for reporting with the state. Other county supervisors usually have a nice tracking app on the elections website that updates hourly.

[indietraveler]

Excited to see Texas numbers once their early voting starts.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1313947284623831040

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

My parents both sent in their ballots today, one for Trump and one for Biden

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Just sent my ballot in. Straight Democrat all the way through. My Mom is gonna vote in person and is hoping there'll be Trump pollwatchers so she can give them a piece of her mind

[Granite City]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/wisconsin-results

So TargetSmart is just making up what they think the party registration is in the early vote for states where its not given? And somehow it deviates significantly from the equally competitive states where we actually know what it is.

By the way, when did people first notice that they put up these disclaimers yesterday? I emailed NBC asking where the data was coming from and I didn't notice it then.

[Non Swing Voter]

Looks like Miami has finally started reporting.  43k cast so far.  22k from democrats.  10k from republicans.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Looks like Miami has finally started reporting.  43k cast so far.  22k from democrats.  10k from republicans.

Is that good?

[Non Swing Voter]

Looks like Miami has finally started reporting.  43k cast so far.  22k from democrats.  10k from republicans.

Is that good?

2 to 1 margin in Dade would be great for Biden if it held, however the early vote is skewing Dem so I'd like to see that margin grow before Election Day.

[Rep Jessica]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
4m
#earlyvote cast as a percentage of *total* 2016 vote is truly amazing

SD: 22.8%
VA 20.7%
WI: 20.6%
WY: 14.9%
VT: 14% (report from yesterday)
MI: 13.1% (report from yesterday)
ND: 12.1%
NJ: 12.3%
FL: 12.3%
MN: 11.3% (report from last Fri.)

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

[GP270watch]

Michael McDonald
@ElectProject
·
4m
#earlyvote cast as a percentage of *total* 2016 vote is truly amazing

SD: 22.8%
VA 20.7%
WI: 20.6%
WY: 14.9%
VT: 14% (report from yesterday)
MI: 13.1% (report from yesterday)
ND: 12.1%
NJ: 12.3%
FL: 12.3%
MN: 11.3% (report from last Fri.)

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

link in post was incomplete.

[Umengus]

Has anyone calculated the margin biden must have (before election day) to win?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Has anyone calculated the margin biden must have (before election day) to win?

Antonio V remarked to me a few weeks ago that he's factoring in 2-3% each for Electoral College bias, potential polling error, and voter suppression, so he'll feel comfortable going into Election Day with an 8% Biden lead or above. That's to do with polling leads rather than early voting leads, though.