2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread  (Read 167983 times)
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #775 on: October 07, 2020, 10:55:46 AM »
Does anyone know what's going on with Pennsylvania?  It's barely reporting anything.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #776 on: October 07, 2020, 11:00:14 AM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 07, 2020, 10:55:46 AM
Does anyone know what's going on with Pennsylvania?  It's barely reporting anything.

Wondering this as well. Not just that it doesn't appear they update daily - but Philly is reporting nothing even though Early Voting has been happening since early last week
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Gass3268
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« Reply #777 on: October 07, 2020, 11:05:11 AM »
This is the first time Pennsylvania has like ever had mass early vote, I'm not shocked they might not be up to speed on reporting statistics early on.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #778 on: October 07, 2020, 01:51:56 PM »
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #779 on: October 07, 2020, 01:53:27 PM »
Quote from: #Joemala2020 on October 07, 2020, 01:51:56 PM


WOW
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redjohn
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« Reply #780 on: October 07, 2020, 01:53:50 PM »
Quote from: #Joemala2020 on October 07, 2020, 01:51:56 PM


I'll be very interested to see preliminary exit polling data on election day and what pollsters think the racial composition of the electorate is. Will give us a really good idea whether Biden or Trump is winning there, and how close it'll be.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #781 on: October 07, 2020, 02:05:36 PM »
Quote from: redjohn on October 07, 2020, 01:53:50 PM
Quote from: #Joemala2020 on October 07, 2020, 01:51:56 PM


I'll be very interested to see preliminary exit polling data on election day and what pollsters think the racial composition of the electorate is. Will give us a really good idea whether Biden or Trump is winning there, and how close it'll be.

what percent minority does it need to be for Biden to have a good shot?
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #782 on: October 07, 2020, 02:09:44 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 07, 2020, 02:05:36 PM
Quote from: redjohn on October 07, 2020, 01:53:50 PM
Quote from: #Joemala2020 on October 07, 2020, 01:51:56 PM


I'll be very interested to see preliminary exit polling data on election day and what pollsters think the racial composition of the electorate is. Will give us a really good idea whether Biden or Trump is winning there, and how close it'll be.

what percent minority does it need to be for Biden to have a good shot?
If the electorate is 42% non-white and they vote for Biden at the same margin they did for Abrams (85-14) and he gets 25% of whites- Biden will get 50% exactly. It was 60/40 in 2018.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #783 on: October 07, 2020, 02:12:20 PM »
Quote from: #Joemala2020 on October 07, 2020, 02:09:44 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 07, 2020, 02:05:36 PM
Quote from: redjohn on October 07, 2020, 01:53:50 PM
Quote from: #Joemala2020 on October 07, 2020, 01:51:56 PM


I'll be very interested to see preliminary exit polling data on election day and what pollsters think the racial composition of the electorate is. Will give us a really good idea whether Biden or Trump is winning there, and how close it'll be.

what percent minority does it need to be for Biden to have a good shot?
If the electorate is 42% non-white and they vote for Biden at the same margin they did for Abrams (85-14) and he gets 25% of whites- Biden will get 50% exactly. It was 60/40 in 2018.

I think there's a high likelihood it's over 42%.  Wasn't it 40% in 2016?  I think it's gonna increase a fair amount this year.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #784 on: October 07, 2020, 02:24:13 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 07, 2020, 01:53:27 PM
Quote from: #Joemala2020 on October 07, 2020, 01:51:56 PM


WOW
Brian Kemp had one f**king job.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #785 on: October 07, 2020, 02:26:36 PM »
Quote from: Dr. Lurker on October 07, 2020, 02:24:13 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 07, 2020, 01:53:27 PM
Quote from: #Joemala2020 on October 07, 2020, 01:51:56 PM


WOW
Brian Kemp had one f**king job.

I think it's all falling apart for the GOP.  The smart ones would just abandon ship now.
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Rep Jessica
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« Reply #786 on: October 07, 2020, 02:29:13 PM »
Florida Turnout Update (all VBM)

DEM: 562,554
GOP: 309,776
OTHERS: 206,847

TOTAL: 1,079,177

Dems have a 252,778 registration advantage
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #787 on: October 07, 2020, 02:30:54 PM »
Quote from: Rep Jessica on October 07, 2020, 02:29:13 PM
Florida Turnout Update (all VBM)

DEM: 562,554
GOP: 309,776
OTHERS: 206,847

TOTAL: 1,079,177

Dems have a 252,778 registration advantage
Will reach 500k in a few days and perhaps close to 800k when in early in person voting is accounted for
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Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
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« Reply #788 on: October 07, 2020, 02:40:25 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 07, 2020, 02:12:20 PM
Quote from: #Joemala2020 on October 07, 2020, 02:09:44 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 07, 2020, 02:05:36 PM
Quote from: redjohn on October 07, 2020, 01:53:50 PM
Quote from: #Joemala2020 on October 07, 2020, 01:51:56 PM


I'll be very interested to see preliminary exit polling data on election day and what pollsters think the racial composition of the electorate is. Will give us a really good idea whether Biden or Trump is winning there, and how close it'll be.

what percent minority does it need to be for Biden to have a good shot?
If the electorate is 42% non-white and they vote for Biden at the same margin they did for Abrams (85-14) and he gets 25% of whites- Biden will get 50% exactly. It was 60/40 in 2018.

I think there's a high likelihood it's over 42%.  Wasn't it 40% in 2016?  I think it's gonna increase a fair amount this year.
Yes. Abrams closed the gap by basically getting all the 2016 third party white vote.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #789 on: October 07, 2020, 02:43:11 PM »
The bigger thing in Georgia is the number of first time voters. It’s already 60k, and we’re only in the first week of October. That should scare the hell out of Republicans. Advantage Biden
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #790 on: October 07, 2020, 03:02:49 PM »
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #791 on: October 07, 2020, 03:28:55 PM »
I mean were are seeing the same sort of enthusiasm as GA in SC among black voters.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #792 on: October 07, 2020, 03:34:57 PM »
Quote from: Michelle O' on October 07, 2020, 03:28:55 PM
I mean were are seeing the same sort of enthusiasm as GA in SC among black voters.

pundits told me there is no enthusiasm for Joseph R. Biden Jr
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #793 on: October 07, 2020, 03:53:03 PM »
Quote from: Bootes Void on October 07, 2020, 02:30:54 PM
Quote from: Rep Jessica on October 07, 2020, 02:29:13 PM
Florida Turnout Update (all VBM)

DEM: 562,554
GOP: 309,776
OTHERS: 206,847

TOTAL: 1,079,177

Dems have a 252,778 registration advantage
Will reach 500k in a few days and perhaps close to 800k when in early in person voting is accounted for

I don't know. We have to see how much the voting by mail is cannibalizing early in person voting. Those extra mail ballots are not all new voters.
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Holmes
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« Reply #794 on: October 07, 2020, 03:54:33 PM »
Milwaukee county catching up to WOW is making me feel good.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #795 on: October 07, 2020, 04:03:22 PM »
Quote from: Holmes on October 07, 2020, 03:54:33 PM
Milwaukee county catching up to WOW is making me feel good.

I like the fact it’s returning more votes than Dane County everyday. We know Dane County will show up, need the same for Milwaukee.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #796 on: October 07, 2020, 04:03:46 PM »
I try not to read too much into it since the use of mail voting is much greater in 2020 than 2016 but in Palm Beach county more Democrats (80,848) have cast mail ballots in 2020 than did during the entire 2016 election (74,079). The total mail vote is closing in too, 134,258 so far in 2020 vs 152,336 in 2016.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #797 on: October 07, 2020, 04:19:41 PM »
Quote from: Minnesota Mike on October 07, 2020, 04:03:46 PM
I try not to read too much into it since the use of mail voting is much greater in 2020 than 2016 but in Palm Beach county more Democrats (80,848) have cast mail ballots in 2020 than did during the entire 2016 election (74,079). The total mail vote is closing in too, 134,258 so far in 2020 vs 152,336 in 2016.

What if you combine VBM and early vote?
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CrimsonCommander688
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« Reply #798 on: October 07, 2020, 04:24:32 PM »
Just dropped off my ballot at the clerks office. This will be the first election I have voted by using an absentee ballot.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #799 on: October 07, 2020, 04:27:59 PM »
Quote from: CrimsonCommander688 on October 07, 2020, 04:24:32 PM
Just dropped off my ballot at the clerks office. This will be the first election I have voted by using an absentee ballot.

Welcome to the forum!

Straight D across the board?
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